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If the FBS Conferences moved to 16
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #11
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16
The P4 here is already on pretty shaky ground when it comes to plausibility, and the G4 is significantly more shaky, but here's an 8x16 future scenario:

ACC
East: Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
North: Boston College, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
South: Florida State, Miami-FL, Virginia, Virginia Tech
West: Cincinnati, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville

Big Ten
East: Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
North: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
South: Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska
West: Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Pac-16
East: Houston, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
North: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
West: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC

SEC
East: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, West Virginia
North: Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
South: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
West: LSU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M

American
East: Army*, Connecticut, Navy*, Temple
North: Iowa State, Kansas State, Memphis, Tulsa
South: Central Florida, East Carolina, South Florida, Tulane
West: Baylor, BYU*, Rice, SMU

MAC
East: Akron, Buffalo, Kent State, Massachusetts*
North: Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan
South: Ball State, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky
West: Bowling Green, Miami-OH, Ohio, Toledo

MWC
East: Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico, Wyoming
North: Boise State, Nevada, UNLV, Utah State
South: North Texas, Texas State, UTEP, UTSA
West: Fresno State, Hawaii*, San Diego State, San Jose State

Sun Belt
East: FAU, FIU, Georgia Southern, Georgia State
North: Appalachian State, Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, Old Dominion
South: South Alabama, Southern Miss, Troy, UAB
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe
11-12-2017 09:56 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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Post: #12
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16
B12 Carve Up Scenario

B1G (Kansas, Oklahoma)
PAC (Texas, Texas Tech)
B12 (BYU, Colorado St, Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, UConn)
AAC (Rice, So Miss, ODU, WKU, Dayton, St. Louis)
MWC (UTEP)
MAC (Marshall, Army)

It is easy to see from here that the AAC would no longer be heads and shoulders above the MWC and MAC in football, nor on by themselves worthy of a contract bowl.

Likewise it wouldn't make sense for MWC or even MAC schools to backfill a diluted AAC. It only makes sense for CUSA and A10 schools to do it that are stuck in conferences with no prospects. If Marshall can't get into the AAC going back to the MAC makes a lot of sense where it can save on travel.
11-12-2017 10:09 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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Post: #13
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16
(11-12-2017 09:56 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  The P4 here is already on pretty shaky ground when it comes to plausibility, and the G4 is significantly more shaky, but here's an 8x16 future scenario:

ACC
East: Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
North: Boston College, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
South: Florida State, Miami-FL, Virginia, Virginia Tech
West: Cincinnati, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville

Big Ten
East: Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
North: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
South: Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska
West: Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Pac-16
East: Houston, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
North: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
West: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC

SEC
East: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, West Virginia
North: Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
South: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
West: LSU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M

American
East: Army*, Connecticut, Navy*, Temple
North: Iowa State, Kansas State, Memphis, Tulsa
South: Central Florida, East Carolina, South Florida, Tulane
West: Baylor, BYU*, Rice, SMU

MAC
East: Akron, Buffalo, Kent State, Massachusetts*
North: Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan
South: Ball State, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky
West: Bowling Green, Miami-OH, Ohio, Toledo

MWC
East: Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico, Wyoming
North: Boise State, Nevada, UNLV, Utah State
South: North Texas, Texas State, UTEP, UTSA
West: Fresno State, Hawaii*, San Diego State, San Jose State

Sun Belt
East: FAU, FIU, Georgia Southern, Georgia State
North: Appalachian State, Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, Old Dominion
South: South Alabama, Southern Miss, Troy, UAB
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe

8 FBS conferences. How many then are contract conferences?

Do you give contracts to all 8 conferences but far less money to the AAC, MAC, MWC, SBC as part of the deal? That is one way to handle it.

I'd say the B12 would likely stay in business because they can pull programs in from both the MWC/AAC to be part of an Iowa St, K-State core.

PAC/SEC/B1G/ACC to 16 for the most massive TV contracts possible.

B12 to 12 to conserve value and a contract with the Cotton Bowl.

What is left of the AAC at that point? Tulsa, Tulane, Navy, Temple? There would be no TV deal for the AAC.
11-12-2017 10:32 PM
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Jjoey52 Offline
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Post: #14
If the FBS Conferences moved to 16
Don’t think they will go beyond 14, it is too cumbersome and too many mouths to feed. Back in the day the WAC went to 16 and it was a disaster.


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(This post was last modified: 11-12-2017 10:48 PM by Jjoey52.)
11-12-2017 10:48 PM
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MWC Tex Offline
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Post: #15
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16
(11-12-2017 10:48 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  Don’t think they will go beyond 14, it is too cumbersome and too many mouths to feed. Back in the day the WAC went to 16 and it was a disaster.


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I think it was only a disaster in that they couldn't get to 2 nice divisions. In addition to a TV contract,

Maybe in this era, it will work. But somebody will need to make the first move.
11-12-2017 10:55 PM
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MWC Tex Offline
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Post: #16
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16
Interesting opinion Kittonhead. We may get there eventually and we were pretty close in the last go round. With TV and digital options more prevalent, it may be feasable for conferences to consolidate. If each conference gets a contact bowl, it will be a big push towards that possibility.
11-12-2017 11:12 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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Post: #17
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16
AAC collapse scenario...

1) PAC adds Texas/Texas Tech. B12 responds with BYU, Col St, Houston and Cincinnati. MWC adds Rice from CUSA. AAC does nothing and sits at 10.

A year later goes by....

2) SEC adds Florida St and Clemson to to to 16. ACC gets scared and decides to go to 16 with UCF, USF, UConn and Navy FB Only. AAC is now down to 6 programs and can't pull in any MWC or MAC schools.

3) B1G not to be outdone expands with Kansas and Oklahoma. B12 then takes Memphis and SMU from the AAC.

Temple, ECU, Tulane, Wichita St and Tulsa aren't enough to keep a conference going.

MAC (Temple, Army)-FB only
CUSA (Tulane, ECU)
MWC (Tulsa, UNT)
A10 (Wichita)
11-12-2017 11:23 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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Post: #18
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16
(11-12-2017 11:12 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Interesting opinion Kittonhead. We may get there eventually and we were pretty close in the last go round. With TV and digital options more prevalent, it may be feasable for conferences to consolidate. If each conference gets a contact bowl, it will be a big push towards that possibility.

There are a lot of different ways it could happen.

The executives tell the MWC and AAC both if you can get to 16 we'll give you contracts in the Sun (MWC) and Gator (AAC).

The MWC gets there with the 4 Texas CUSA schools.

The AAC takes a basketball approach with WKU/ODU from CUSA and Ohio/Buffalo from the MAC.

That would leave the MAC and SBC with 10 FB playing schools. CUSA would have 8 but could add NMSU/UMass FB only. Those 3 conferences then continue on with a G3 deal for their highest rated champion.
11-12-2017 11:33 PM
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msm96wolf Offline
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Post: #19
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16
Guys, playoffs are not going to be determined by the NCAA or confernce champs. As long as the CFP exist, it will always avoid Conference Champs for the top 8 teams. Odds are confereces will remain the same but go down to a Power 4.
m
ACC - Prediction ND & TCU (Baylor if ND stays indy)
Most complicated. If ND joins, Swofford makes a play for Texas to complete his dream, ND will want Navy (FO). ND stays Indy, my preference would TCU and WVU. WVU needs to be with Pitt, Va tech and Syr. Baylor as the back up to have two Texas teams instead of WVU (I know, but if PSU can recover from Sandusky, anything is possible to recover from)

P12 - Texas, TT, OU, OSU

B10 - Kansas and ISU

SEC Kstate and WVU


B12 Desolves by vote. If three teams remain, look for look for B12 to go after best G5 and Indy.
CSU - WVU
Boise - Memphis
Baylor - UCF
Kstate - USF
SDSU - Houston
AF - Navy
CSU - SMU

AAC AND MWC back fill from top CUSA, MAC and SB teams

I think MAC, CUSA, and SB backfill with Indys and FCS programs like JMU and other top FCS programs. Keeping the then number to 10 or 12 teams per conference.
11-13-2017 09:45 AM
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TexanMark Offline
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Post: #20
RE: If the FBS Conferences moved to 16
(11-12-2017 10:55 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  
(11-12-2017 10:48 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  Don’t think they will go beyond 14, it is too cumbersome and too many mouths to feed. Back in the day the WAC went to 16 and it was a disaster.


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I think it was only a disaster in that they couldn't get to 2 nice divisions. In addition to a TV contract,

Maybe in this era, it will work. But somebody will need to make the first move.

Yup...gotta allow pods to go 15+ teams IMHO. 14 teams is really pushing it.
11-13-2017 09:56 AM
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