(10-16-2017 08:26 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 08:20 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 08:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 07:57 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 01:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  the committee absolutely takes into account total SOS.

Also, USF does play Houston from the west. And USF will almost certainly enter the final game at 10-0 vs UCF. UCF will enter the game likely at 10-0 as well. So the winner would be 11-0 and in the CCG. Out west, if Memphis beats Houston this week, they will enter the CCG at 10-1. The winner of that game easily gets the G5 spot.

As far as the question about the cancelled games- totally meaningless. The decision is based on what teams actually did..

I don't think any of us can say what the committee will take into account in every circumstance. I especially don't think that, even if they do take total SOS into account in deciding who their top 4 are or in what order, that they would apply the same rationale in deciding which G5 team to bless. Same goes for #5-#11 for the remaining NY6 slots. They are still making this up as they go along.

they showed that they take into account total SOS a few years ago with Marshall- and even last year when WMU was not a lock despite having 2 fewer losses than the AAC team before the CCG. They have to take SOS as a whole into account.

Their job is to pick the best G5 champion. Not the one with the best SOS. If the same champ appears to have both qualities, it's an easy choice. But I doubt the committee would agree that one champion is clearly a stronger team, but give the nod to a weaker one who may have had a better schedule. Especially given that the determination of relative schedule strength is a very inexact science.

Their job is to pick the G5 team who has had the best season. And in determining that, you absolutely have to look at SOS. And records.

Bottom line, if the AAC title game is UCF or USF(both undefeated) vs a 1 loss Memphis team, the winner of that game will be the G5 rep. Not a damn thing SDSU or Boise, or anyone can do about that.

I don't recall seeing where "the best season" has been established as a criterion for the committee. Here is an indisputable fact: "best team", "best season" "best SOS" are all purely subjective concepts. There is no objective standard for any of these in college football. Each individual selection committee member decides for himself what they mean, and votes accordingly. Pretty much the same way AP voters or USA Today voters do, except they get to lobby for their favorites in private in hopes of changing other members' minds to their way of thinking.

they look at things a whole hell of a lot deeper than just the eye test. They use stuff like SOS to differentiate the teams.

(10-17-2017 09:18 AM)stever20 Wrote:  they look at things a whole hell of a lot deeper than just the eye test. They use stuff like SOS to differentiate the teams.

S20, you are correct. They look at SOS and OOC probably as the most importatant. I believe you and I agree to disagree about which would take has more value. I think OOC and you seam to prefer SOS. One thing the committee has proven, we never know. One year they say a 13 data point, but ignore that logic for OSU last year. First year Marshal was slammed for a WEAK OOC. Last year, a two loss Navy, with a loss to Air Force was kept in the running. Something that still baffles me against a 13-0 team. I think eye test had more to do with that than SOS and OOC.

I do think we both can agree, until we see the CFP first poll. We have no clue what this years committee's criterion will be. Even with that, they could change it around on the last vote. The one team I do fill bad for is Marshall, I think they go 12-1 and will not get a sniff at the G5. I watched them against NCSU and I was impressed. I felt we were lucky to get the W in that game. They would not give up. I think if we had switched SC and Marshall, our recored would still the same but Marshall would be undefeated. Then again, that is an eye test. SOS and OOC does not help them. Give them credit, they did not play an FCS team. However, the two MAC and one AAC teams they beat may not beat many FCS teams.

(10-17-2017 08:52 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 08:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 07:58 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 07:41 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 11:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Sorry but Stanford wouldn't trump in any fashion beating an undefeated team in the CCG. It would be viewed by all as a defacto play-in game for the G5 slot.

If Stanford wins out, they will be the PAC champion. Having beaten them will easily trump beating an unbeaten G5 team with no significant P5 skins on its wall, so i think you're wrong about this, but maybe we'll get to see.

we'll know pretty soon as if Memphis is ahead of SDSU initially, it'll be almost impossible for SDSU to catch up. Memphis would have their best win yet to come, while at best SDSU would have a win over a 2 loss team left.

Of course, I expect UCF/USF to win it- so it'll be a moot point. No chance in the world that either of those get passed up for SDSU. Absolutely none.

I agree about USF/UCF, if they finish unbeaten, they will be the NY6 team, period.

But Memphis is in the same position USF/UCF were before SDSU lost - Stanford looms as a big threat to their hopes. FWIW, I don't think Memphis being ahead of SDSU initially will mean much, as the CFP has said before, some important things aren't determined until the last weekend, and then things can flip significantly.

Like Stanford winning the PAC title.

what matters to a team though far more late in the season is what game you are adding. If Memphis is adding an undefeated ranked USF/UCF team while SDSU is adding a 2 loss unranked Boise team- Memphis won't get passed up by SDSU.
passed up by SDSU.

Not necessarily what 'game' you are adding, but what achievement you are adding. Like if UCF beats Memphis in the AAC title game, the win over Memphis isn't as important as the fact that they are now the AAC Champion. That's the bigger achievement among the two.

Stanford wins the PAC, and now what you are adding to SDSU's resume is ... a win over the PAC Champion.

(10-17-2017 10:00 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 09:18 AM)stever20 Wrote:  they look at things a whole hell of a lot deeper than just the eye test. They use stuff like SOS to differentiate the teams.

S20, you are correct. They look at SOS and OOC probably as the most importatant. I believe you and I agree to disagree about which would take has more value. I think OOC and you seam to prefer SOS. One thing the committee has proven, we never know. One year they say a 13 data point, but ignore that logic for OSU last year. First year Marshal was slammed for a WEAK OOC. Last year, a two loss Navy, with a loss to Air Force was kept in the running. Something that still baffles me against a 13-0 team. I think eye test had more to do with that than SOS and OOC.

I do think we both can agree, until we see the CFP first poll. We have no clue what this years committee's criterion will be. Even with that, they could change it around on the last vote. The one team I do fill bad for is Marshall, I think they go 12-1 and will not get a sniff at the G5. I watched them against NCSU and I was impressed. I felt we were lucky to get the W in that game. They would not give up. I think if we had switched SC and Marshall, our recored would still the same but Marshall would be undefeated. Then again, that is an eye test. SOS and OOC does not help them. Give them credit, they did not play an FCS team. However, the two MAC and one AAC teams they beat may not beat many FCS teams.

Navy was still in it because their SOS was so much stronger than WMU's was. The AAC was and is a much stronger league than the MAC is. And that's 2/3 of your schedule.

Marshall's problem is that CUSA is complete and utter garbage. I mean right now in Sagarin it's behind the MVC. And like last year- that's 2/3 of Marshall's schedule.

It's going to take a year like last year for a team from the MAC or CUSA(or Sun Belt) to get the G5 slot. Where both the MWC and AAC produce 3-4 loss champions- and even there- the MAC or CUSA team must be undefeated. There is that much of a difference between the AAC/MWC and MAC/CUSA/SBC.

(10-17-2017 07:58 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 07:41 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 11:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 10:48 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 08:26 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Their job is to pick the G5 team who has had the best season. And in determining that, you absolutely have to look at SOS. And records.

Bottom line, if the AAC title game is UCF or USF(both undefeated) vs a 1 loss Memphis team, the winner of that game will be the G5 rep. Not a damn thing SDSU or Boise, or anyone can do about that.

I agree with your reasoning but not necessarily the conclusion. If Memphis wins out, including beating an undefeated USF or UCF, they will get the NY6 bid - unless SDSU wins out and Stanford is highly-ranked at the end of the season. Memphis's problem will be they have no quality OOC wins, and SDSU > Stanford will trump beating USF or UCF, who themselves have no quality OOC wins.

Sorry but Stanford wouldn't trump in any fashion beating an undefeated team in the CCG. It would be viewed by all as a defacto play-in game for the G5 slot.

If Stanford wins out, they will be the PAC champion. Having beaten them will easily trump beating an unbeaten G5 team with no significant P5 skins on its wall, so i think you're wrong about this, but maybe we'll get to see.

we'll know pretty soon as if Memphis is ahead of SDSU initially, it'll be almost impossible for SDSU to catch up. Memphis would have their best win yet to come, while at best SDSU would have a win over a 2 loss team left.

Of course, I expect UCF/USF to win it- so it'll be a moot point. No chance in the world that either of those get passed up for SDSU. Absolutely none.

Stever, i believe you are overlooking one important fact. SDSU does not have to pass up anybody. The first CFP commmittee rankings have not been made.

It is important to remember the committee members rankings will not be dictated by the current poll rankings. They will think for themselves.

(10-17-2017 10:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 08:52 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 08:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 07:58 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 07:41 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  If Stanford wins out, they will be the PAC champion. Having beaten them will easily trump beating an unbeaten G5 team with no significant P5 skins on its wall, so i think you're wrong about this, but maybe we'll get to see.

we'll know pretty soon as if Memphis is ahead of SDSU initially, it'll be almost impossible for SDSU to catch up. Memphis would have their best win yet to come, while at best SDSU would have a win over a 2 loss team left.

Of course, I expect UCF/USF to win it- so it'll be a moot point. No chance in the world that either of those get passed up for SDSU. Absolutely none.

I agree about USF/UCF, if they finish unbeaten, they will be the NY6 team, period.

But Memphis is in the same position USF/UCF were before SDSU lost - Stanford looms as a big threat to their hopes. FWIW, I don't think Memphis being ahead of SDSU initially will mean much, as the CFP has said before, some important things aren't determined until the last weekend, and then things can flip significantly.

Like Stanford winning the PAC title.

what matters to a team though far more late in the season is what game you are adding. If Memphis is adding an undefeated ranked USF/UCF team while SDSU is adding a 2 loss unranked Boise team- Memphis won't get passed up by SDSU.
passed up by SDSU.

Not necessarily what 'game' you are adding, but what achievement you are adding. Like if UCF beats Memphis in the AAC title game, the win over Memphis isn't as important as the fact that they are now the AAC Champion. That's the bigger achievement among the two.

Stanford wins the PAC, and now what you are adding to SDSU's resume is ... a win over the PAC Champion.

No, like if Memphis beats UCF(or USF) in the AAC title game, Memphis will be adding a win over a previously undefeated top 15 team. That means FAR more than SDSU adding a title for an opponent. While SDSU would get a little bit more credit for the Stanford win, Memphis would be gaining full credit for a new top 15 win. A full top 15 win means far more.

And Stanford is FAR more likely btw to finish the season 7-5 than they are to be Pac 12 champions.

SDSU would be wise to be huge Houston fans on Thursday night this week. It's Memphis final test this year before the CCG. SDSU does not want 11-0 UCF/USF vs 11-1 Memphis at all. I think they would tell you that themselves.

(10-17-2017 10:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 10:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 08:52 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 08:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 07:58 AM)stever20 Wrote:  we'll know pretty soon as if Memphis is ahead of SDSU initially, it'll be almost impossible for SDSU to catch up. Memphis would have their best win yet to come, while at best SDSU would have a win over a 2 loss team left.

Of course, I expect UCF/USF to win it- so it'll be a moot point. No chance in the world that either of those get passed up for SDSU. Absolutely none.

I agree about USF/UCF, if they finish unbeaten, they will be the NY6 team, period.

But Memphis is in the same position USF/UCF were before SDSU lost - Stanford looms as a big threat to their hopes. FWIW, I don't think Memphis being ahead of SDSU initially will mean much, as the CFP has said before, some important things aren't determined until the last weekend, and then things can flip significantly.

Like Stanford winning the PAC title.

what matters to a team though far more late in the season is what game you are adding. If Memphis is adding an undefeated ranked USF/UCF team while SDSU is adding a 2 loss unranked Boise team- Memphis won't get passed up by SDSU.
passed up by SDSU.

Not necessarily what 'game' you are adding, but what achievement you are adding. Like if UCF beats Memphis in the AAC title game, the win over Memphis isn't as important as the fact that they are now the AAC Champion. That's the bigger achievement among the two.

Stanford wins the PAC, and now what you are adding to SDSU's resume is ... a win over the PAC Champion.

No, like if Memphis beats UCF(or USF) in the AAC title game, Memphis will be adding a win over a previously undefeated top 15 team. That means FAR more than SDSU adding a title for an opponent. While SDSU would get a little bit more credit for the Stanford win, Memphis would be gaining full credit for a new top 15 win. A full top 15 win means far more.

And Stanford is FAR more likely btw to finish the season 7-5 than they are to be Pac 12 champions.

SDSU would be wise to be huge Houston fans on Thursday night this week. It's Memphis final test this year before the CCG. SDSU does not want 11-0 UCF/USF vs 11-1 Memphis at all. I think they would tell you that themselves.

I think you are misinterpreting what the CFP is likely to find important. Beating a Top 15 G5 school just doesn't carry the same weight as beating a Top 15 P5 team. We know that, because the former will drop farther than the latter. There isn't the same perceived weightiness, that's why when G5 enter the rankings, it takes longer for them to rise, and quicker for them to fall, especially when all their accomplishments are versus other G5 teams.

In contrast, having beaten a P5 champ will be viewed far more weightily by the committee. I mean, you really can't top that if you are a G5.

It's just extremely unlikely that when the CFP meets the final time to make its decisions that "Memphis beat previously #11, now #17 USF" will trump "SDSU beat #7 PAC 12 Champ Stanford". That won't be close.

That said, of course, SDSU would like things to be as favorable as possible, so sure, they want the team that faces an unbeaten UCF or USF in the AAC title game to have as many losses as possible so that if they win, they won't be seen as favorably. But we're talking about a specific 'what if' situation.

S20,
Really surprising, normally you are pretty reasonable but it looks like you have been drinking AAC kool-aid. When the CFP was designed, they stated it took the entire season into account which is different from how the AP and Coaches poll was done. Much like the NCAA does. AAC East is as bad as the MWC west. It very likely there will be only two teams with a winning record in the AAC east. Again, I am not disagreeing that USF/UCF don't have the inside track to the G5 championship but rankings today mean nothing. Until the first CFP poll comes out, no one is ranked. My guess is you will see UCF, USF and SDSU in the 20-25 range. Memphis may or may not be in there on the first CFP Poll. I feel pretty confident is saying this, if UCF loses to Navy, they probably will not be in the first CFP poll. I don't have a vote in the CFP but my order would be

UCF
USF
SDSU
Memphis
------------
Navy and Marshall on the outside looking in at the moment.

(10-17-2017 01:46 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 10:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 10:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 08:52 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 08:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I agree about USF/UCF, if they finish unbeaten, they will be the NY6 team, period.

But Memphis is in the same position USF/UCF were before SDSU lost - Stanford looms as a big threat to their hopes. FWIW, I don't think Memphis being ahead of SDSU initially will mean much, as the CFP has said before, some important things aren't determined until the last weekend, and then things can flip significantly.

Like Stanford winning the PAC title.

what matters to a team though far more late in the season is what game you are adding. If Memphis is adding an undefeated ranked USF/UCF team while SDSU is adding a 2 loss unranked Boise team- Memphis won't get passed up by SDSU.
passed up by SDSU.

Not necessarily what 'game' you are adding, but what achievement you are adding. Like if UCF beats Memphis in the AAC title game, the win over Memphis isn't as important as the fact that they are now the AAC Champion. That's the bigger achievement among the two.

Stanford wins the PAC, and now what you are adding to SDSU's resume is ... a win over the PAC Champion.

No, like if Memphis beats UCF(or USF) in the AAC title game, Memphis will be adding a win over a previously undefeated top 15 team. That means FAR more than SDSU adding a title for an opponent. While SDSU would get a little bit more credit for the Stanford win, Memphis would be gaining full credit for a new top 15 win. A full top 15 win means far more.

And Stanford is FAR more likely btw to finish the season 7-5 than they are to be Pac 12 champions.

SDSU would be wise to be huge Houston fans on Thursday night this week. It's Memphis final test this year before the CCG. SDSU does not want 11-0 UCF/USF vs 11-1 Memphis at all. I think they would tell you that themselves.

I think you are misinterpreting what the CFP is likely to find important. Beating a Top 15 G5 school just doesn't carry the same weight as beating a Top 15 P5 team. We know that, because the former will drop farther than the latter. There isn't the same perceived weightiness, that's why when G5 enter the rankings, it takes longer for them to rise, and quicker for them to fall, especially when all their accomplishments are versus other G5 teams.

In contrast, having beaten a P5 champ will be viewed far more weightily by the committee. I mean, you really can't top that if you are a G5.

It's just extremely unlikely that when the CFP meets the final time to make its decisions that "Memphis beat previously #11, now #17 USF" will trump "SDSU beat #7 PAC 12 Champ Stanford". That won't be close.

That said, of course, SDSU would like things to be as favorable as possible, so sure, they want the team that faces an unbeaten UCF or USF in the AAC title game to have as many losses as possible so that if they win, they won't be seen as favorably. But we're talking about a specific 'what if' situation.

The thing is, going into that final week- SDSU would have had almost all of the impact of their Stanford win realized. Memphis would have had absolutely NONE of their win over USF/UCF realized yet. So if Memphis was ahead of SDSU before the CCG week, Memphis beating USF/UCF would matter far more than the combination of SDSU beating Boise, and prior SDSU opponent Stanford getting the P12 championship. The committee will have already considered the Stanford win in the weeks leading up to the final game. They won't have considered the USF/UCF win for Memphis because it wouldn't have happened yet.

(10-17-2017 10:20 AM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 07:58 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 07:41 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 11:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 10:48 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I agree with your reasoning but not necessarily the conclusion. If Memphis wins out, including beating an undefeated USF or UCF, they will get the NY6 bid - unless SDSU wins out and Stanford is highly-ranked at the end of the season. Memphis's problem will be they have no quality OOC wins, and SDSU > Stanford will trump beating USF or UCF, who themselves have no quality OOC wins.

Sorry but Stanford wouldn't trump in any fashion beating an undefeated team in the CCG. It would be viewed by all as a defacto play-in game for the G5 slot.

If Stanford wins out, they will be the PAC champion. Having beaten them will easily trump beating an unbeaten G5 team with no significant P5 skins on its wall, so i think you're wrong about this, but maybe we'll get to see.

we'll know pretty soon as if Memphis is ahead of SDSU initially, it'll be almost impossible for SDSU to catch up. Memphis would have their best win yet to come, while at best SDSU would have a win over a 2 loss team left.

Of course, I expect UCF/USF to win it- so it'll be a moot point. No chance in the world that either of those get passed up for SDSU. Absolutely none.

Stever, i believe you are overlooking one important fact. SDSU does not have to pass up anybody. The first CFP commmittee rankings have not been made.

It is important to remember the committee members rankings will not be dictated by the current poll rankings. They will think for themselves.

that's why I said that if Memphis is ahead of SDSU initially, it'll be really hard for SDSU to pass them back up. SDSU has left the #116 SOS. They have 4 of the worst 32 teams left after this weekend. And Boise probably won't be ranked in the ratings- so no help there for the CCG.

(10-17-2017 02:13 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  S20,
Really surprising, normally you are pretty reasonable but it looks like you have been drinking AAC kool-aid. When the CFP was designed, they stated it took the entire season into account which is different from how the AP and Coaches poll was done. Much like the NCAA does. AAC East is as bad as the MWC west. It very likely there will be only two teams with a winning record in the AAC east. Again, I am not disagreeing that USF/UCF don't have the inside track to the G5 championship but rankings today mean nothing. Until the first CFP poll comes out, no one is ranked. My guess is you will see UCF, USF and SDSU in the 20-25 range. Memphis may or may not be in there on the first CFP Poll. I feel pretty confident is saying this, if UCF loses to Navy, they probably will not be in the first CFP poll. I don't have a vote in the CFP but my order would be

UCF
USF
SDSU
Memphis
------------
Navy and Marshall on the outside looking in at the moment.

looking at Sagarin-
AAC East 63.79
MWC West 59.82

AAC East is far closer to the MWC Mountain than they are the MWC West.

(10-17-2017 02:36 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 10:20 AM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 07:58 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 07:41 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 11:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Sorry but Stanford wouldn't trump in any fashion beating an undefeated team in the CCG. It would be viewed by all as a defacto play-in game for the G5 slot.

If Stanford wins out, they will be the PAC champion. Having beaten them will easily trump beating an unbeaten G5 team with no significant P5 skins on its wall, so i think you're wrong about this, but maybe we'll get to see.

we'll know pretty soon as if Memphis is ahead of SDSU initially, it'll be almost impossible for SDSU to catch up. Memphis would have their best win yet to come, while at best SDSU would have a win over a 2 loss team left.

Of course, I expect UCF/USF to win it- so it'll be a moot point. No chance in the world that either of those get passed up for SDSU. Absolutely none.

Stever, i believe you are overlooking one important fact. SDSU does not have to pass up anybody. The first CFP commmittee rankings have not been made.

It is important to remember the committee members rankings will not be dictated by the current poll rankings. They will think for themselves.

that's why I said that if Memphis is ahead of SDSU initially, it'll be really hard for SDSU to pass them back up. SDSU has left the #116 SOS. They have 4 of the worst 32 teams left after this weekend. And Boise probably won't be ranked in the ratings- so no help there for the CCG.

My post was referring to your last statement "that no chance in the world that either (UCF or USF) get passed up for SDSU."

(10-17-2017 03:14 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 02:36 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 10:20 AM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 07:58 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 07:41 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  If Stanford wins out, they will be the PAC champion. Having beaten them will easily trump beating an unbeaten G5 team with no significant P5 skins on its wall, so i think you're wrong about this, but maybe we'll get to see.

we'll know pretty soon as if Memphis is ahead of SDSU initially, it'll be almost impossible for SDSU to catch up. Memphis would have their best win yet to come, while at best SDSU would have a win over a 2 loss team left.

Of course, I expect UCF/USF to win it- so it'll be a moot point. No chance in the world that either of those get passed up for SDSU. Absolutely none.

Stever, i believe you are overlooking one important fact. SDSU does not have to pass up anybody. The first CFP commmittee rankings have not been made.

It is important to remember the committee members rankings will not be dictated by the current poll rankings. They will think for themselves.

that's why I said that if Memphis is ahead of SDSU initially, it'll be really hard for SDSU to pass them back up. SDSU has left the #116 SOS. They have 4 of the worst 32 teams left after this weekend. And Boise probably won't be ranked in the ratings- so no help there for the CCG.

My post was referring to your last statement "that no chance in the world that either (UCF or USF) get passed up for SDSU."

There is no chance. If UCF or USF win out, they are the G5 rep. That's a guarantee.

(10-17-2017 03:19 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 03:14 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 02:36 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 10:20 AM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 07:58 AM)stever20 Wrote:  we'll know pretty soon as if Memphis is ahead of SDSU initially, it'll be almost impossible for SDSU to catch up. Memphis would have their best win yet to come, while at best SDSU would have a win over a 2 loss team left.

Of course, I expect UCF/USF to win it- so it'll be a moot point. No chance in the world that either of those get passed up for SDSU. Absolutely none.

Stever, i believe you are overlooking one important fact. SDSU does not have to pass up anybody. The first CFP commmittee rankings have not been made.

It is important to remember the committee members rankings will not be dictated by the current poll rankings. They will think for themselves.

that's why I said that if Memphis is ahead of SDSU initially, it'll be really hard for SDSU to pass them back up. SDSU has left the #116 SOS. They have 4 of the worst 32 teams left after this weekend. And Boise probably won't be ranked in the ratings- so no help there for the CCG.

My post was referring to your last statement "that no chance in the world that either (UCF or USF) get passed up for SDSU."

There is no chance. If UCF or USF win out, they are the G5 rep. That's a guarantee.

But can you guarantee they will win out? And I still say they do not have to pass up anybody until we see the results of the next few games and the first committee rankings.

(10-17-2017 02:31 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 01:46 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 10:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 10:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 08:52 AM)stever20 Wrote:  what matters to a team though far more late in the season is what game you are adding. If Memphis is adding an undefeated ranked USF/UCF team while SDSU is adding a 2 loss unranked Boise team- Memphis won't get passed up by SDSU.
passed up by SDSU.

Not necessarily what 'game' you are adding, but what achievement you are adding. Like if UCF beats Memphis in the AAC title game, the win over Memphis isn't as important as the fact that they are now the AAC Champion. That's the bigger achievement among the two.

Stanford wins the PAC, and now what you are adding to SDSU's resume is ... a win over the PAC Champion.

No, like if Memphis beats UCF(or USF) in the AAC title game, Memphis will be adding a win over a previously undefeated top 15 team. That means FAR more than SDSU adding a title for an opponent. While SDSU would get a little bit more credit for the Stanford win, Memphis would be gaining full credit for a new top 15 win. A full top 15 win means far more.

And Stanford is FAR more likely btw to finish the season 7-5 than they are to be Pac 12 champions.

SDSU would be wise to be huge Houston fans on Thursday night this week. It's Memphis final test this year before the CCG. SDSU does not want 11-0 UCF/USF vs 11-1 Memphis at all. I think they would tell you that themselves.

I think you are misinterpreting what the CFP is likely to find important. Beating a Top 15 G5 school just doesn't carry the same weight as beating a Top 15 P5 team. We know that, because the former will drop farther than the latter. There isn't the same perceived weightiness, that's why when G5 enter the rankings, it takes longer for them to rise, and quicker for them to fall, especially when all their accomplishments are versus other G5 teams.

In contrast, having beaten a P5 champ will be viewed far more weightily by the committee. I mean, you really can't top that if you are a G5.

It's just extremely unlikely that when the CFP meets the final time to make its decisions that "Memphis beat previously #11, now #17 USF" will trump "SDSU beat #7 PAC 12 Champ Stanford". That won't be close.

That said, of course, SDSU would like things to be as favorable as possible, so sure, they want the team that faces an unbeaten UCF or USF in the AAC title game to have as many losses as possible so that if they win, they won't be seen as favorably. But we're talking about a specific 'what if' situation.

The thing is, going into that final week- SDSU would have had almost all of the impact of their Stanford win realized. Memphis would have had absolutely NONE of their win over USF/UCF realized yet. So if Memphis was ahead of SDSU before the CCG week, Memphis beating USF/UCF would matter far more than the combination of SDSU beating Boise, and prior SDSU opponent Stanford getting the P12 championship. The committee will have already considered the Stanford win in the weeks leading up to the final game. They won't have considered the USF/UCF win for Memphis because it wouldn't have happened yet.

But, the one thing about SDSU's win over Stanford that will not have been realized yet is ... Stanford becoming the PAC Champion. And I bet that's likely to be very important.

Remember, the NY6 bid is ultimately about allowing one G5 team to pit itself against an elite P5 team in a major bowl. So the CFP is trying to determine which G5 champ is most worthy of that. A G5 champ that has actually beaten a P5 champ is therefore likely to have a major edge over a team, like Memphis in your example, with no significant accomplishments vis-a-vis the P5 whatsoever, whose entire resume value is based on beating other G5.

That's one reason why Navy is important: It will help Memphis if Navy goes on to beat a high-ranked Notre Dame team, because then they can say "well, we beat Navy, who beat Notre Dame". That would be one way to link Memphis, even indirectly, to a big win over a P5 team. Beating USF or UCF alone won't do it, as they have no P5 accomplishments either.

Here is Jerry Palm's latest prediction of the CFP committee first poll. I think it is pretty spot on and what the CFP has done traditionally.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...se-to-out/

Only G5 ranked is UCF at 23. USF and SDSU were dropped out of his previous rankings. I had USF spotted for 24 and SDSU for 25. We still have two weeks before the first poll, so it will change again. Especially if Navy beats UCF

(10-18-2017 02:34 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Here is Jerry Palm's latest prediction of the CFP committee first poll. I think it is pretty spot on and what the CFP has done traditionally.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...se-to-out/

Only G5 ranked is UCF at 23. USF and SDSU were dropped out of his previous rankings. I had USF spotted for 24 and SDSU for 25. We still have two weeks before the first poll, so it will change again. Especially if Navy beats UCF

If this is how the first CFP poll looks, it's a cold shower for those touting the AAC.

Not to the Fiesta, please.

(10-20-2017 01:09 AM)sierrajip Wrote:  Not to the Fiesta, please.

Phoenix is a lot more fun to visit in December than Atlanta. Plus, the Peach Bowl still just feels like the Peach Bowl, even though they now say it's a major bowl.