(10-15-2017 11:10 AM)otown Wrote:  

(10-15-2017 09:02 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-14-2017 09:14 PM)otown Wrote:  

(10-13-2017 04:19 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-13-2017 03:11 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  I really doubt that. By your rationale, a team playing Rutgers (or Rutgers level teams) 12 times and went 9-3 is better than a team that played USF or UCF (or equivalent) 12 times and went 12-0. It's not that simple.

Your doubt would be justified, if Auburn played Rutgers 12 times. But as it will happen, they will have played Alabama, and Clemson, and Georgia, three of the top five ranked teams right now. And LSU, and Texas AM, etc.

So in the real world, UCF will have played Maryland, and that will settle it.

As it stands, 5 of those wins are to Mercer, ga southern, ole miss, miss state, and missouri. A 6th win will be to la Monroe. I'm sorry, not impressed. So literally, 2 extra P5 wins would make them hop UCF?.....despite UCF blowing out every opponent by 30 points.......please pass the doobie.

Not saying I can't see it happening due to inherent bias....... but not because they are a better team.

Does anyone really think that because UCF blows out ECU and Maryland that they are better than Auburn?

Given the difference in talent, what are the odds it's true?

We will never know, because they wont play each other, but its not always about how many 4/5 players you have. Ask FSU this season. Ask Baylor when they got their butt handed to them by UCF. So because Auburn may or may not win against 2 more P5s( ones that are fielding real teams this year lol) while UCF doesn't have the oppirtunity of playing any more you suddenly assume they are better?
That's is flawed reasoning.

I don't automatically assume Auburn is better than UCF, and as you say, we are unlikely to find out for sure. That's a problem with college football generally, too many teams don't play each other.

But we have to go by the available evidence.

Well, I think it can officially be said the UCF and USF control their destiny to the G5. If either can go undefeated, the prize is their. Again, I will stand by if they both lose a regular season game and SDSU is a one loss champ, SDSU will get the prize with SOS and OOC. So the G5 race is not over but there are two strong leaders.

SDSU though has a putrid rest of season schedule. Hawaii, San Jose St, and Nevada are 3 of their 5 remaining games. Any 1 loss AAC champion will be easily ahead of them.

S20, CFP does not penalize conference schedule. It penalizes weak OOC schedule. Even using that arguement - USF and UCF don't have that strong of arguement with the AAC East. Likely, they will be the only two bowl teams from that division. USF is getting the weak teams in the West. At least UCF plays Memphis and Navy. Below is the OOC comparison. USF is not even close to UCF and SDSU. UCF is good but it no way compares to SDSU. The question how does the CFP consider the cancelled games?

Not even posting FCS games

SDSU
Stanford - 5-2
ASU 3-3 with win over Washington. Possible Bowl Team (Remaining games
NIU - 4-2 Win over Nebraska and Likely Bowl team.

USF (Will not have played a Winning FBS or P5 team)
San Jose State -1-7
Illinois 2-4 (They loss to Rutgers, need more be said)
Game Cancelled Umass 0-6

UCF (More than likely will not play a winning P5 team)
Md 3-3 (Will need to win one of these games to have a shot a 6-6 (PSU, WISC, Michigan, Michigan St)
FIU 4-2 possible bowl team
Canceled Georgia Tech 3-2

G5 teams in ESPN FPI rankings:

#18 UCF
#41 USF
#47 San Diego St
#48 Memphis
#49 Boise State
#52 Houston
#54 Colorado St

Even with one loss, as long as it doesn't come in the AAC Championship game, it sure looks like the AAC has the inside track for the G5 autobid.

There's no question that if either UCF or USF win out, they will be the NY6 representative. Even a team like Memphis would be a strong contender if they were to win out.

The AAC is about 90% likely to get the NY6 bid, the real danger, as you said, is an upset loss in the CCG, if the upset winner has 2 or more losses.

(10-16-2017 12:07 PM)ken d Wrote:  G5 teams in ESPN FPI rankings:

#18 UCF
#41 USF
#47 San Diego St
#48 Memphis
#49 Boise State
#52 Houston
#54 Colorado St

Even with one loss, as long as it doesn't come in the AAC Championship game, it sure looks like the AAC has the inside track for the G5 autobid.

the committee absolutely takes into account total SOS.

Also, USF does play Houston from the west. And USF will almost certainly enter the final game at 10-0 vs UCF. UCF will enter the game likely at 10-0 as well. So the winner would be 11-0 and in the CCG. Out west, if Memphis beats Houston this week, they will enter the CCG at 10-1. The winner of that game easily gets the G5 spot.

As far as the question about the cancelled games- totally meaningless. The decision is based on what teams actually did..

USF and UCF have pretty good schedules remaining. Western Michigan got no respect because of the MAC but the AAC is somewhat more well regarded.

As it is every season, it's important to wait until week 10 or 11 before we start wringing our hands over this. Personally, I'd love to see one of them run the table and make the playoffs; ratings would likely be quite high.

(10-16-2017 03:40 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  USF and UCF have pretty good schedules remaining. Western Michigan got no respect because of the MAC but the AAC is somewhat more well regarded.

As it is every season, it's important to wait until week 10 or 11 before we start wringing our hands over this. Personally, I'd love to see one of them run the table and make the playoffs; ratings would likely be quite high.

The later is never going to happen; that is why they gave the G5 the bone

(10-16-2017 03:45 PM)Tigeer Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 03:40 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  USF and UCF have pretty good schedules remaining. Western Michigan got no respect because of the MAC but the AAC is somewhat more well regarded.

As it is every season, it's important to wait until week 10 or 11 before we start wringing our hands over this. Personally, I'd love to see one of them run the table and make the playoffs; ratings would likely be quite high.

The later is never going to happen; that is why they gave the G5 the bone

It would take a 2007 scenario with basically every team losing in the final two weeks. It's possible though.

(10-16-2017 01:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  the committee absolutely takes into account total SOS.

Also, USF does play Houston from the west. And USF will almost certainly enter the final game at 10-0 vs UCF. UCF will enter the game likely at 10-0 as well. So the winner would be 11-0 and in the CCG. Out west, if Memphis beats Houston this week, they will enter the CCG at 10-1. The winner of that game easily gets the G5 spot.

As far as the question about the cancelled games- totally meaningless. The decision is based on what teams actually did..

I don't think any of us can say what the committee will take into account in every circumstance. I especially don't think that, even if they do take total SOS into account in deciding who their top 4 are or in what order, that they would apply the same rationale in deciding which G5 team to bless. Same goes for #5-#11 for the remaining NY6 slots. They are still making this up as they go along.

(10-16-2017 07:57 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 01:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  the committee absolutely takes into account total SOS.

Also, USF does play Houston from the west. And USF will almost certainly enter the final game at 10-0 vs UCF. UCF will enter the game likely at 10-0 as well. So the winner would be 11-0 and in the CCG. Out west, if Memphis beats Houston this week, they will enter the CCG at 10-1. The winner of that game easily gets the G5 spot.

As far as the question about the cancelled games- totally meaningless. The decision is based on what teams actually did..

I don't think any of us can say what the committee will take into account in every circumstance. I especially don't think that, even if they do take total SOS into account in deciding who their top 4 are or in what order, that they would apply the same rationale in deciding which G5 team to bless. Same goes for #5-#11 for the remaining NY6 slots. They are still making this up as they go along.

they showed that they take into account total SOS a few years ago with Marshall- and even last year when WMU was not a lock despite having 2 fewer losses than the AAC team before the CCG. They have to take SOS as a whole into account.

(10-16-2017 08:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 07:57 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 01:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  the committee absolutely takes into account total SOS.

Also, USF does play Houston from the west. And USF will almost certainly enter the final game at 10-0 vs UCF. UCF will enter the game likely at 10-0 as well. So the winner would be 11-0 and in the CCG. Out west, if Memphis beats Houston this week, they will enter the CCG at 10-1. The winner of that game easily gets the G5 spot.

As far as the question about the cancelled games- totally meaningless. The decision is based on what teams actually did..

I don't think any of us can say what the committee will take into account in every circumstance. I especially don't think that, even if they do take total SOS into account in deciding who their top 4 are or in what order, that they would apply the same rationale in deciding which G5 team to bless. Same goes for #5-#11 for the remaining NY6 slots. They are still making this up as they go along.

they showed that they take into account total SOS a few years ago with Marshall- and even last year when WMU was not a lock despite having 2 fewer losses than the AAC team before the CCG. They have to take SOS as a whole into account.

Their job is to pick the best G5 champion. Not the one with the best SOS. If the same champ appears to have both qualities, it's an easy choice. But I doubt the committee would agree that one champion is clearly a stronger team, but give the nod to a weaker one who may have had a better schedule. Especially given that the determination of relative schedule strength is a very inexact science.

(10-16-2017 08:20 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 08:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 07:57 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 01:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  the committee absolutely takes into account total SOS.

Also, USF does play Houston from the west. And USF will almost certainly enter the final game at 10-0 vs UCF. UCF will enter the game likely at 10-0 as well. So the winner would be 11-0 and in the CCG. Out west, if Memphis beats Houston this week, they will enter the CCG at 10-1. The winner of that game easily gets the G5 spot.

As far as the question about the cancelled games- totally meaningless. The decision is based on what teams actually did..

I don't think any of us can say what the committee will take into account in every circumstance. I especially don't think that, even if they do take total SOS into account in deciding who their top 4 are or in what order, that they would apply the same rationale in deciding which G5 team to bless. Same goes for #5-#11 for the remaining NY6 slots. They are still making this up as they go along.

they showed that they take into account total SOS a few years ago with Marshall- and even last year when WMU was not a lock despite having 2 fewer losses than the AAC team before the CCG. They have to take SOS as a whole into account.

Their job is to pick the best G5 champion. Not the one with the best SOS. If the same champ appears to have both qualities, it's an easy choice. But I doubt the committee would agree that one champion is clearly a stronger team, but give the nod to a weaker one who may have had a better schedule. Especially given that the determination of relative schedule strength is a very inexact science.

Their job is to pick the G5 team who has had the best season. And in determining that, you absolutely have to look at SOS. And records.

Bottom line, if the AAC title game is UCF or USF(both undefeated) vs a 1 loss Memphis team, the winner of that game will be the G5 rep. Not a damn thing SDSU or Boise, or anyone can do about that.

(10-16-2017 08:26 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 08:20 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 08:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 07:57 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 01:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  the committee absolutely takes into account total SOS.

Also, USF does play Houston from the west. And USF will almost certainly enter the final game at 10-0 vs UCF. UCF will enter the game likely at 10-0 as well. So the winner would be 11-0 and in the CCG. Out west, if Memphis beats Houston this week, they will enter the CCG at 10-1. The winner of that game easily gets the G5 spot.

As far as the question about the cancelled games- totally meaningless. The decision is based on what teams actually did..

I don't think any of us can say what the committee will take into account in every circumstance. I especially don't think that, even if they do take total SOS into account in deciding who their top 4 are or in what order, that they would apply the same rationale in deciding which G5 team to bless. Same goes for #5-#11 for the remaining NY6 slots. They are still making this up as they go along.

they showed that they take into account total SOS a few years ago with Marshall- and even last year when WMU was not a lock despite having 2 fewer losses than the AAC team before the CCG. They have to take SOS as a whole into account.

Their job is to pick the best G5 champion. Not the one with the best SOS. If the same champ appears to have both qualities, it's an easy choice. But I doubt the committee would agree that one champion is clearly a stronger team, but give the nod to a weaker one who may have had a better schedule. Especially given that the determination of relative schedule strength is a very inexact science.

Their job is to pick the G5 team who has had the best season. And in determining that, you absolutely have to look at SOS. And records.

Bottom line, if the AAC title game is UCF or USF(both undefeated) vs a 1 loss Memphis team, the winner of that game will be the G5 rep. Not a damn thing SDSU or Boise, or anyone can do about that.

I agree with your reasoning but not necessarily the conclusion. If Memphis wins out, including beating an undefeated USF or UCF, they will get the NY6 bid - unless SDSU wins out and Stanford is highly-ranked at the end of the season. Memphis's problem will be they have no quality OOC wins, and SDSU > Stanford will trump beating USF or UCF, who themselves have no quality OOC wins.

(10-16-2017 10:48 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 08:26 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 08:20 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 08:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 07:57 PM)ken d Wrote:  I don't think any of us can say what the committee will take into account in every circumstance. I especially don't think that, even if they do take total SOS into account in deciding who their top 4 are or in what order, that they would apply the same rationale in deciding which G5 team to bless. Same goes for #5-#11 for the remaining NY6 slots. They are still making this up as they go along.

they showed that they take into account total SOS a few years ago with Marshall- and even last year when WMU was not a lock despite having 2 fewer losses than the AAC team before the CCG. They have to take SOS as a whole into account.

Their job is to pick the best G5 champion. Not the one with the best SOS. If the same champ appears to have both qualities, it's an easy choice. But I doubt the committee would agree that one champion is clearly a stronger team, but give the nod to a weaker one who may have had a better schedule. Especially given that the determination of relative schedule strength is a very inexact science.

Their job is to pick the G5 team who has had the best season. And in determining that, you absolutely have to look at SOS. And records.

Bottom line, if the AAC title game is UCF or USF(both undefeated) vs a 1 loss Memphis team, the winner of that game will be the G5 rep. Not a damn thing SDSU or Boise, or anyone can do about that.

I agree with your reasoning but not necessarily the conclusion. If Memphis wins out, including beating an undefeated USF or UCF, they will get the NY6 bid - unless SDSU wins out and Stanford is highly-ranked at the end of the season. Memphis's problem will be they have no quality OOC wins, and SDSU > Stanford will trump beating USF or UCF, who themselves have no quality OOC wins.

Sorry but Stanford wouldn't trump in any fashion beating an undefeated team in the CCG. It would be viewed by all as a defacto play-in game for the G5 slot.

(10-16-2017 11:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 10:48 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 08:26 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 08:20 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 08:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  they showed that they take into account total SOS a few years ago with Marshall- and even last year when WMU was not a lock despite having 2 fewer losses than the AAC team before the CCG. They have to take SOS as a whole into account.

Their job is to pick the best G5 champion. Not the one with the best SOS. If the same champ appears to have both qualities, it's an easy choice. But I doubt the committee would agree that one champion is clearly a stronger team, but give the nod to a weaker one who may have had a better schedule. Especially given that the determination of relative schedule strength is a very inexact science.

Their job is to pick the G5 team who has had the best season. And in determining that, you absolutely have to look at SOS. And records.

Bottom line, if the AAC title game is UCF or USF(both undefeated) vs a 1 loss Memphis team, the winner of that game will be the G5 rep. Not a damn thing SDSU or Boise, or anyone can do about that.

I agree with your reasoning but not necessarily the conclusion. If Memphis wins out, including beating an undefeated USF or UCF, they will get the NY6 bid - unless SDSU wins out and Stanford is highly-ranked at the end of the season. Memphis's problem will be they have no quality OOC wins, and SDSU > Stanford will trump beating USF or UCF, who themselves have no quality OOC wins.

Sorry but Stanford wouldn't trump in any fashion beating an undefeated team in the CCG. It would be viewed by all as a defacto play-in game for the G5 slot.

If Stanford wins out, they will be the PAC champion. Having beaten them will easily trump beating an unbeaten G5 team with no significant P5 skins on its wall, so i think you're wrong about this, but maybe we'll get to see.

(10-17-2017 07:41 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 11:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 10:48 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 08:26 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 08:20 PM)ken d Wrote:  Their job is to pick the best G5 champion. Not the one with the best SOS. If the same champ appears to have both qualities, it's an easy choice. But I doubt the committee would agree that one champion is clearly a stronger team, but give the nod to a weaker one who may have had a better schedule. Especially given that the determination of relative schedule strength is a very inexact science.

Their job is to pick the G5 team who has had the best season. And in determining that, you absolutely have to look at SOS. And records.

Bottom line, if the AAC title game is UCF or USF(both undefeated) vs a 1 loss Memphis team, the winner of that game will be the G5 rep. Not a damn thing SDSU or Boise, or anyone can do about that.

I agree with your reasoning but not necessarily the conclusion. If Memphis wins out, including beating an undefeated USF or UCF, they will get the NY6 bid - unless SDSU wins out and Stanford is highly-ranked at the end of the season. Memphis's problem will be they have no quality OOC wins, and SDSU > Stanford will trump beating USF or UCF, who themselves have no quality OOC wins.

Sorry but Stanford wouldn't trump in any fashion beating an undefeated team in the CCG. It would be viewed by all as a defacto play-in game for the G5 slot.

If Stanford wins out, they will be the PAC champion. Having beaten them will easily trump beating an unbeaten G5 team with no significant P5 skins on its wall, so i think you're wrong about this, but maybe we'll get to see.

we'll know pretty soon as if Memphis is ahead of SDSU initially, it'll be almost impossible for SDSU to catch up. Memphis would have their best win yet to come, while at best SDSU would have a win over a 2 loss team left.

Of course, I expect UCF/USF to win it- so it'll be a moot point. No chance in the world that either of those get passed up for SDSU. Absolutely none.

(10-17-2017 07:58 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 07:41 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 11:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 10:48 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 08:26 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Their job is to pick the G5 team who has had the best season. And in determining that, you absolutely have to look at SOS. And records.

Bottom line, if the AAC title game is UCF or USF(both undefeated) vs a 1 loss Memphis team, the winner of that game will be the G5 rep. Not a damn thing SDSU or Boise, or anyone can do about that.

I agree with your reasoning but not necessarily the conclusion. If Memphis wins out, including beating an undefeated USF or UCF, they will get the NY6 bid - unless SDSU wins out and Stanford is highly-ranked at the end of the season. Memphis's problem will be they have no quality OOC wins, and SDSU > Stanford will trump beating USF or UCF, who themselves have no quality OOC wins.

Sorry but Stanford wouldn't trump in any fashion beating an undefeated team in the CCG. It would be viewed by all as a defacto play-in game for the G5 slot.

If Stanford wins out, they will be the PAC champion. Having beaten them will easily trump beating an unbeaten G5 team with no significant P5 skins on its wall, so i think you're wrong about this, but maybe we'll get to see.

we'll know pretty soon as if Memphis is ahead of SDSU initially, it'll be almost impossible for SDSU to catch up. Memphis would have their best win yet to come, while at best SDSU would have a win over a 2 loss team left.

Of course, I expect UCF/USF to win it- so it'll be a moot point. No chance in the world that either of those get passed up for SDSU. Absolutely none.

I agree about USF/UCF, if they finish unbeaten, they will be the NY6 team, period.

But Memphis is in the same position USF/UCF were before SDSU lost - Stanford looms as a big threat to their hopes. FWIW, I don't think Memphis being ahead of SDSU initially will mean much, as the CFP has said before, some important things aren't determined until the last weekend, and then things can flip significantly.

Like Stanford winning the PAC title.

(10-17-2017 08:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 07:58 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2017 07:41 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 11:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-16-2017 10:48 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I agree with your reasoning but not necessarily the conclusion. If Memphis wins out, including beating an undefeated USF or UCF, they will get the NY6 bid - unless SDSU wins out and Stanford is highly-ranked at the end of the season. Memphis's problem will be they have no quality OOC wins, and SDSU > Stanford will trump beating USF or UCF, who themselves have no quality OOC wins.

Sorry but Stanford wouldn't trump in any fashion beating an undefeated team in the CCG. It would be viewed by all as a defacto play-in game for the G5 slot.

If Stanford wins out, they will be the PAC champion. Having beaten them will easily trump beating an unbeaten G5 team with no significant P5 skins on its wall, so i think you're wrong about this, but maybe we'll get to see.

we'll know pretty soon as if Memphis is ahead of SDSU initially, it'll be almost impossible for SDSU to catch up. Memphis would have their best win yet to come, while at best SDSU would have a win over a 2 loss team left.

Of course, I expect UCF/USF to win it- so it'll be a moot point. No chance in the world that either of those get passed up for SDSU. Absolutely none.

I agree about USF/UCF, if they finish unbeaten, they will be the NY6 team, period.

But Memphis is in the same position USF/UCF were before SDSU lost - Stanford looms as a big threat to their hopes. FWIW, I don't think Memphis being ahead of SDSU initially will mean much, as the CFP has said before, some important things aren't determined until the last weekend, and then things can flip significantly.

Like Stanford winning the PAC title.

what matters to a team though far more late in the season is what game you are adding. If Memphis is adding an undefeated ranked USF/UCF team while SDSU is adding a 2 loss unranked Boise team- Memphis won't get passed up by SDSU.
passed up by SDSU.