(10-12-2017 12:20 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote: (10-11-2017 01:39 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote: (10-11-2017 01:22 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote: If anything, that data leads more evidence towards a separation, not an inclusion:
The AAC is 4-9 against P5 schools this year, and 27-66 since organizing in 2013 against the P5. The AAC has only placed two teams (2013 UCF - Fiesta, and 2015 Houston - Peach) in NY6 Bowl games, and carries a dreadful 8-17 record in bowl games in that time span.
Let's not forget in 2013, it was the last year of the BCS and the AAC champ regardless of record, was contracted to play the Big East's automatic bid. In the CFP era, Boise State, Houston and Western Michigan have played in NY6 bowls.
The AAC would have selected for the NY6/BCS bowl, even if it did NOT have an automatic tie-in in 2013. The fact they had one is irrelevant. This has been stated over and over again. UCF would have been selected under previous criteria, or under current criteria, even if AAC did not have an auto bid. Why is this so hard for some to understand?
This is incorrect. The only way UCF could have gotten in to a BCS bowl that year under that year's criteria was the way they did, by the AAC having an auto-bid. We can work it through:
National Title game: #1 FSU vs #2 Auburn
Rose Bowl: #4 MSU (B1G champ) vs #5 Stanford (PAC champ)
Sugar Bowl: #3 Alabama (SEC replacement for title game) vs #11 Oklahoma (at-large)
Orange Bowl: #12 Clemson (ACC replacement for title game team) vs #7 Ohio State (at-large)
Fiesta Bowl: #6 Baylor (Big 12 champ) vs ......
So if the AAC was not AQ, there were two avenues to the BCS for UCF: (1) as an automatic qualifier via the special rules for non-AQ teams, or (2) as a pure at-large team. But UCF couldn't make it either way:
First, UCF could not have qualified under the special rules for non-AQ conferences, because to get in that way, the non-AQ had to be either (a) ranked in the top 12, or (b) ranked in the top 16 and ahead of at least one AQ champ. UCF was ranked #15, but all the other AQ champs were ranked higher than them.
Second, UCF could not have gotten in as an at-large selection, because to be eligible for at-large, you had to be ranked in the top 14 teams.
So who would have gone to the Fiesta Bowl vs Baylor? UCF was #15, and after the above selections, there were five higher-ranked teams left out: #8 Missouri, #9 South Carolina, #10 Oregon, #13 OK State, and #14 Arizona State. Now, four of those teams could not be taken instead of UCF, because they would violate the "two teams maximum per conference" rule. But one of them, #10 Oregon, did not violate that rule.
So since the PAC only had one team in the BCS, had the AAC not had an auto-bid, #10 Oregon would have played in the Fiesta Bowl instead of UCF.
The only way you can say that UCF would have gotten in had the AAC not been AQ would be to apply later rules or circumstances (like expanding the number of Major bowls from five to six). But if you keep everything as it was in 2013, but just make the AAC non-AQ, then UCF doesn't get in.