(09-13-2017 01:36 PM)orangefan Wrote:  

(09-13-2017 01:11 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  So it is worse than previous thought.
The 3rd Qtr ends this month, so we'll see some new numbers sometime in October from Sat and Cable companies. What is going to be curious is the Sling TV numbers since they are included in the overall number. Dish still had big loss last quarter with Sling TV...meaning people cutting the cord aren't signing up for TV streaming packages.

Stadium is going to be a bigger player not only with having a 24/7 OTA channel but they are able to be streamed for free on multiple platforms.
So in essence I think the OTA only customers are now approaching 20% of US households if it isn't just over that right now.

The footnotes state that Sling customers are counted in the cord cutters and cord nevers, not Pay TV. Presumably other internet bundles are treated the same. Therefore, the number of subscribers to channels such as ESPN is by definition not shrinking as fast the drop off in Pay TV subscribers.

Along the same lines, this report by SBL Kagan estimates that the number of subscribers to "Virtual Service Providers" (i.e., Sling, Playstation Vue, etc.) will grow fast enough to replace lost cable and satellite subscribers, so that they estimate subscriptions to channel bundles will stay constant at around 100 million TVHH through 2025. https://ofccolo.snl.com/Cache/CBC3AA560637320340.PDF (see page 17). As described on pages 9-10, these services do not include on demand services like Netflix, which are addressed separately. The percentage of TVHH with such subscriptions does decline, though, because of the growth in the number of total TVHH.

I'm not sure I entirely believe this, but I do believe it will offset a meaningful piece of the loss of subscribers of traditional cable and satellite.

(09-18-2017 12:01 PM)orangefan Wrote:  

(09-13-2017 01:36 PM)orangefan Wrote:  

(09-13-2017 01:11 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  So it is worse than previous thought.
The 3rd Qtr ends this month, so we'll see some new numbers sometime in October from Sat and Cable companies. What is going to be curious is the Sling TV numbers since they are included in the overall number. Dish still had big loss last quarter with Sling TV...meaning people cutting the cord aren't signing up for TV streaming packages.

Stadium is going to be a bigger player not only with having a 24/7 OTA channel but they are able to be streamed for free on multiple platforms.
So in essence I think the OTA only customers are now approaching 20% of US households if it isn't just over that right now.

The footnotes state that Sling customers are counted in the cord cutters and cord nevers, not Pay TV. Presumably other internet bundles are treated the same. Therefore, the number of subscribers to channels such as ESPN is by definition not shrinking as fast the drop off in Pay TV subscribers.

Along the same lines, this report by SBL Kagan estimates that the number of subscribers to "Virtual Service Providers" (i.e., Sling, Playstation Vue, etc.) will grow fast enough to replace lost cable and satellite subscribers, so that they estimate subscriptions to channel bundles will stay constant at around 100 million TVHH through 2025. https://ofccolo.snl.com/Cache/CBC3AA560637320340.PDF (see page 17). As described on pages 9-10, these services do not include on demand services like Netflix, which are addressed separately. The percentage of TVHH with such subscriptions does decline, though, because of the growth in the number of total TVHH.

I'm not sure I entirely believe this, but I do believe it will offset a meaningful piece of the loss of subscribers of traditional cable and satellite.

100% replacement seems unrealistic.

(09-18-2017 02:43 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(09-18-2017 12:01 PM)orangefan Wrote:  

(09-13-2017 01:36 PM)orangefan Wrote:  

(09-13-2017 01:11 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  So it is worse than previous thought.
The 3rd Qtr ends this month, so we'll see some new numbers sometime in October from Sat and Cable companies. What is going to be curious is the Sling TV numbers since they are included in the overall number. Dish still had big loss last quarter with Sling TV...meaning people cutting the cord aren't signing up for TV streaming packages.

Stadium is going to be a bigger player not only with having a 24/7 OTA channel but they are able to be streamed for free on multiple platforms.
So in essence I think the OTA only customers are now approaching 20% of US households if it isn't just over that right now.

The footnotes state that Sling customers are counted in the cord cutters and cord nevers, not Pay TV. Presumably other internet bundles are treated the same. Therefore, the number of subscribers to channels such as ESPN is by definition not shrinking as fast the drop off in Pay TV subscribers.

Along the same lines, this report by SBL Kagan estimates that the number of subscribers to "Virtual Service Providers" (i.e., Sling, Playstation Vue, etc.) will grow fast enough to replace lost cable and satellite subscribers, so that they estimate subscriptions to channel bundles will stay constant at around 100 million TVHH through 2025. https://ofccolo.snl.com/Cache/CBC3AA560637320340.PDF (see page 17). As described on pages 9-10, these services do not include on demand services like Netflix, which are addressed separately. The percentage of TVHH with such subscriptions does decline, though, because of the growth in the number of total TVHH.

I'm not sure I entirely believe this, but I do believe it will offset a meaningful piece of the loss of subscribers of traditional cable and satellite.

100% replacement seems unrealistic.

Yeah...not happening. Look at the previous quarterly report over the past few years and it is around 25% to 35% of the cord cutters going to OTT services.