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New Stats on Cord Cutting
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orangefan Offline
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Post: #1
New Stats on Cord Cutting
56.6 Million U.S. consumers to go without pay TV this year, as cord cutting accelerates
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/56-6-...39060.html

This is obviously going to continue to put pressure on subscription revenues and advertising revenues, and therefore rights fees. Programming that viewers value should still be able to generate revenues, but it may require new business models.

[Image: 5db2a5690710f5b343161a25d96eebcb]
[Image: 102c032006f328416db37d9e7ff04607]
(This post was last modified: 09-13-2017 12:54 PM by orangefan.)
09-13-2017 12:54 PM
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MWC Tex Offline
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Post: #2
RE: New Stats on Cord Cutting
So it is worse than previous thought.
The 3rd Qtr ends this month, so we'll see some new numbers sometime in October from Sat and Cable companies. What is going to be curious is the Sling TV numbers since they are included in the overall number. Dish still had big loss last quarter with Sling TV...meaning people cutting the cord aren't signing up for TV streaming packages.

Stadium is going to be a bigger player not only with having a 24/7 OTA channel but they are able to be streamed for free on multiple platforms.
So in essence I think the OTA only customers are now approaching 20% of US households if it isn't just over that right now.
(This post was last modified: 09-13-2017 01:12 PM by MWC Tex.)
09-13-2017 01:11 PM
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Renandpat Offline
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Post: #3
RE: New Stats on Cord Cutting
(09-13-2017 01:11 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Stadium is going to be a bigger player not only with having a 24/7 OTA channel but they are able to be streamed for free on multiple platforms.
So in essence I think the OTA only customers are now approaching 20% of US households if it isn't just over that right now.
Stadium will not be a large player as their inventory of games/events has teams which people don't want to watch.
09-13-2017 01:27 PM
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orangefan Offline
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RE: New Stats on Cord Cutting
(09-13-2017 01:11 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  So it is worse than previous thought.
The 3rd Qtr ends this month, so we'll see some new numbers sometime in October from Sat and Cable companies. What is going to be curious is the Sling TV numbers since they are included in the overall number. Dish still had big loss last quarter with Sling TV...meaning people cutting the cord aren't signing up for TV streaming packages.

Stadium is going to be a bigger player not only with having a 24/7 OTA channel but they are able to be streamed for free on multiple platforms.
So in essence I think the OTA only customers are now approaching 20% of US households if it isn't just over that right now.

The footnotes state that Sling customers are counted in the cord cutters and cord nevers, not Pay TV. Presumably other internet bundles are treated the same. Therefore, the number of subscribers to channels such as ESPN is by definition not shrinking as fast the drop off in Pay TV subscribers.
(This post was last modified: 09-13-2017 01:38 PM by orangefan.)
09-13-2017 01:36 PM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #5
RE: New Stats on Cord Cutting
(09-13-2017 01:11 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  So it is worse than previous thought.
The 3rd Qtr ends this month, so we'll see some new numbers sometime in October from Sat and Cable companies. What is going to be curious is the Sling TV numbers since they are included in the overall number. Dish still had big loss last quarter with Sling TV...meaning people cutting the cord aren't signing up for TV streaming packages.

Stadium is going to be a bigger player not only with having a 24/7 OTA channel but they are able to be streamed for free on multiple platforms.
So in essence I think the OTA only customers are now approaching 20% of US households if it isn't just over that right now.

Do you work for Stadium? I have literally only heard about Stadium from your posts on this site.
09-13-2017 01:51 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #6
RE: New Stats on Cord Cutting
(09-13-2017 12:54 PM)orangefan Wrote:  56.6 Million U.S. consumers to go without pay TV this year, as cord cutting accelerates
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/56-6-...39060.html

This is obviously going to continue to put pressure on subscription revenues and advertising revenues, and therefore rights fees. Programming that viewers value should still be able to generate revenues, but it may require new business models.

[Image: 5db2a5690710f5b343161a25d96eebcb]
[Image: 102c032006f328416db37d9e7ff04607]

201 million watching "pay TV" in 2016 versus 182 million in 2021. The optimistic, Disney/Fox/Turner/etc. spin on this will be: "Five years from now, we will still have 90% of what we have today."
09-13-2017 02:07 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: New Stats on Cord Cutting
(09-13-2017 01:51 PM)YNot Wrote:  Do you work for Stadium? I have literally only heard about Stadium from your posts on this site.

FWIW, I hadn't heard of them either, then last week I found out Southern University vs USM was going to be on Stadium, so I went to the web site and watched some of it.

Production values were good and the video signal was clear, well done.
09-13-2017 02:25 PM
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MWC Tex Offline
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RE: New Stats on Cord Cutting
(09-13-2017 01:51 PM)YNot Wrote:  
(09-13-2017 01:11 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  So it is worse than previous thought.
The 3rd Qtr ends this month, so we'll see some new numbers sometime in October from Sat and Cable companies. What is going to be curious is the Sling TV numbers since they are included in the overall number. Dish still had big loss last quarter with Sling TV...meaning people cutting the cord aren't signing up for TV streaming packages.

Stadium is going to be a bigger player not only with having a 24/7 OTA channel but they are able to be streamed for free on multiple platforms.
So in essence I think the OTA only customers are now approaching 20% of US households if it isn't just over that right now.

Do you work for Stadium? I have literally only heard about Stadium from your posts on this site.

No...It just that Stadium with the merging of the American Sports Network, Campus Insiders and 120 sports also has some big investors behind the new entity with management that can run a sports network. The NHL, MLB have also invested in the network.
As more people are cutting the cord, they will have a bigger presence not only by streaming but by the OTA TV stations their parent company owns and getting more affiliates signed on,

Just saying keep an eye out for them and see how they grow over the next few years.
09-13-2017 02:27 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: New Stats on Cord Cutting
(09-13-2017 02:07 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(09-13-2017 12:54 PM)orangefan Wrote:  56.6 Million U.S. consumers to go without pay TV this year, as cord cutting accelerates
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/56-6-...39060.html

This is obviously going to continue to put pressure on subscription revenues and advertising revenues, and therefore rights fees. Programming that viewers value should still be able to generate revenues, but it may require new business models.

[Image: 5db2a5690710f5b343161a25d96eebcb]
[Image: 102c032006f328416db37d9e7ff04607]

201 million watching "pay TV" in 2016 versus 182 million in 2021. The optimistic, Disney/Fox/Turner/etc. spin on this will be: "Five years from now, we will still have 90% of what we have today."

Regardless of the platform - cable, satellite, online, roku, etc. - you can only watch what has been sold and paid for. FOX, Disney, NBC, and CBS own the rights to the NFL games (save for the few shown on the NFL Network), so if you want to watch the NFL, you have to watch through them, where they will extract money from you, or advertisers wanting to reach you, for doing so.

So if you really think FOX, Disney, etc. are going to suffer, what you're really saying is that fewer people are going to watch the NFL in the future. That may be the case, e.g. many say NFL ratings are down because of the national anthem issue, but it won't be because of a switch in platforms.
(This post was last modified: 09-13-2017 04:07 PM by quo vadis.)
09-13-2017 04:04 PM
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HeartOfDixie Offline
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RE: New Stats on Cord Cutting
The numbers are probably even better, and by better I mean bad for big cable companies.

I do not count on this list because I have a basic cable package because its wrapped into my internet price.

But, I never watch TV.
09-13-2017 05:50 PM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #11
RE: New Stats on Cord Cutting
(09-13-2017 12:54 PM)orangefan Wrote:  56.6 Million U.S. consumers to go without pay TV this year, as cord cutting accelerates
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/56-6-...39060.html

This is obviously going to continue to put pressure on subscription revenues and advertising revenues, and therefore rights fees. Programming that viewers value should still be able to generate revenues, but it may require new business models.

[Image: 5db2a5690710f5b343161a25d96eebcb]
[Image: 102c032006f328416db37d9e7ff04607]

It seems odd that they report the increase in "Pay TV Non-viewers" rather than the decline in Pay TV Viewers. I'm always suspicious of this kind of "almost right" stat. Are they trying to hide something?
09-13-2017 07:27 PM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: New Stats on Cord Cutting
(09-13-2017 05:50 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  The numbers are probably even better, and by better I mean bad for big cable companies.

I do not count on this list because I have a basic cable package because its wrapped into my internet price.

But, I never watch TV.

The cable companies are probably the worst bad guys in this whole rotten system, but unfortunately they will continue to make money off of cord cutters because the cutters who watch Netflix or Hulu or whatever are using so-called high-speed internet service, and the bad guys are the largest providers of so-called high-speed internet to residences.
09-13-2017 09:26 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #13
RE: New Stats on Cord Cutting
(09-13-2017 07:27 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(09-13-2017 12:54 PM)orangefan Wrote:  56.6 Million U.S. consumers to go without pay TV this year, as cord cutting accelerates
...
[Image: 5db2a5690710f5b343161a25d96eebcb]

It seems odd that they report the increase in "Pay TV Non-viewers" rather than the decline in Pay TV Viewers. I'm always suspicious of this kind of "almost right" stat. Are they trying to hide something?
Even odder is that they report a deceleration as an acceleration:

Year: %Growth_Nevers %Growth_Cutters
2017: 5.85% 32.93%
2018: 5.52% 22.07%
2019: 4.68% 16.97%
2020: 4.21% 13.88%
2021: 3.54% 11.08%

This does not look like the exponential part of a growth logistic (where the growth rates are steady), it looks like the part more than halfway up where the niche is starting to be filled.
[Image: 5cbb382cc7a53196a402172da5c2fed32c2134ff.png]
(This post was last modified: 09-13-2017 10:17 PM by BruceMcF.)
09-13-2017 09:52 PM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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RE: New Stats on Cord Cutting
(09-13-2017 01:36 PM)orangefan Wrote:  
(09-13-2017 01:11 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  So it is worse than previous thought.
The 3rd Qtr ends this month, so we'll see some new numbers sometime in October from Sat and Cable companies. What is going to be curious is the Sling TV numbers since they are included in the overall number. Dish still had big loss last quarter with Sling TV...meaning people cutting the cord aren't signing up for TV streaming packages.

Stadium is going to be a bigger player not only with having a 24/7 OTA channel but they are able to be streamed for free on multiple platforms.
So in essence I think the OTA only customers are now approaching 20% of US households if it isn't just over that right now.

The footnotes state that Sling customers are counted in the cord cutters and cord nevers, not Pay TV. Presumably other internet bundles are treated the same. Therefore, the number of subscribers to channels such as ESPN is by definition not shrinking as fast the drop off in Pay TV subscribers.

Seems like to me they should be included in pay Tv numbers. You are paying for a TV package of channels the same way as for FIOS, satellite and cable. No cords? My FIOS is all wireless but it is included in the pay TV section I assume.

Edit- Forbes article from today asking just that question:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanwolk/20...34922b19cc
(This post was last modified: 09-13-2017 10:22 PM by Frog in the Kitchen Sink.)
09-13-2017 10:09 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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RE: New Stats on Cord Cutting
(09-13-2017 10:09 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Seems like to me they should be included in pay Tv numbers. You are paying for a TV package of channels the same way as for FIOS, satellite and cable. No cords? My FIOS is all wireless but it is included in the pay TV section I assume.
Meanwhile both Hulu and Amazon Prime moving to a "basic" tier plus a collection of added price channels.

There is one set of questions, about how whether or not the company you are paying for the delivery channel is the same as the company you are paying for the content, and another set of questions, whether or not there is a bundling middle-man between you and the company licensing the content.

For the second set of questions, SlingTV & etc. should be included among those bundling content licensed by others.
(This post was last modified: 09-13-2017 10:29 PM by BruceMcF.)
09-13-2017 10:26 PM
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RE: New Stats on Cord Cutting
(09-13-2017 02:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(09-13-2017 01:51 PM)YNot Wrote:  Do you work for Stadium? I have literally only heard about Stadium from your posts on this site.

FWIW, I hadn't heard of them either, then last week I found out Southern University vs USM was going to be on Stadium, so I went to the web site and watched some of it.

Production values were good and the video signal was clear, well done.

Last year with ASN, I was able to watch all C-USA games via my DISH service due to their contracting with multiple RSN's. This year I can watch them on a local independent tv station that contracted with Stadium, also on my DISH service but no longer on the RSN's. Either is fine with me as long as they are available. So it is also available locally (southern Wisconsin) OTA.
(This post was last modified: 09-14-2017 06:40 AM by MinerInWisconsin.)
09-14-2017 06:38 AM
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RE: New Stats on Cord Cutting
I cut the cord in August. I still have local channels because the bundled price for them and internet was lower than just internet. Now using Sling and I have no complaints.
09-14-2017 06:39 AM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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RE: New Stats on Cord Cutting
(09-14-2017 06:39 AM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  I cut the cord in August. I still have local channels because the bundled price for them and internet was lower than just internet. Now using Sling and I have no complaints.

Here's the thing: I don't consider using Sling (or similar streaming bundles) to be cutting the cord. You're still paying for a bundle of channels that can't be altered in the same manner as cable, but the delivery mechanism is different. Others that pointed out that people subscribing to those bundles shouldn't really be counted in these cord cutting figures because cable channels are still getting the same subscriber fees. Essentially, if you're getting ESPN (whether via cable or streaming), which is effectively the litmus test since ESPN is the most hardcore of them all about insisting on being in basic cable packages, you're not really cutting the cord.
09-14-2017 08:26 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: New Stats on Cord Cutting
(09-14-2017 08:26 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(09-14-2017 06:39 AM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  I cut the cord in August. I still have local channels because the bundled price for them and internet was lower than just internet. Now using Sling and I have no complaints.

Here's the thing: I don't consider using Sling (or similar streaming bundles) to be cutting the cord. You're still paying for a bundle of channels that can't be altered in the same manner as cable, but the delivery mechanism is different. Others that pointed out that people subscribing to those bundles shouldn't really be counted in these cord cutting figures because cable channels are still getting the same subscriber fees. Essentially, if you're getting ESPN (whether via cable or streaming), which is effectively the litmus test since ESPN is the most hardcore of them all about insisting on being in basic cable packages, you're not really cutting the cord.

I'd say if you use Sling to buy a slimmed-down package, you are cutting "a" cord, meaning whatever channels you used to get on cable that you aren't getting on Sling, but if you are still getting ESPN, you haven't cut that cord, and that's the cord we are concerned with around here.
09-14-2017 09:01 AM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #20
RE: New Stats on Cord Cutting
(09-14-2017 08:26 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(09-14-2017 06:39 AM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  I cut the cord in August. I still have local channels because the bundled price for them and internet was lower than just internet. Now using Sling and I have no complaints.

Here's the thing: I don't consider using Sling (or similar streaming bundles) to be cutting the cord. You're still paying for a bundle of channels that can't be altered in the same manner as cable, but the delivery mechanism is different. Others that pointed out that people subscribing to those bundles shouldn't really be counted in these cord cutting figures because cable channels are still getting the same subscriber fees. Essentially, if you're getting ESPN (whether via cable or streaming), which is effectively the litmus test since ESPN is the most hardcore of them all about insisting on being in basic cable packages, you're not really cutting the cord.

Yeah I'd agree. People are paying less to the cable company, but ESPN is still getting carriage fees with them.

The real significant cord cutting is those that don't have any bundled channels. That will be the thing that affects the carriage fee model the most, as well as the thing that affects viewership/ ratings. Some of the minor channels might be affected by sling type cord cutting, but I doubt the ESPN/CNN/HGTV/weather channel type channels are too worried about that "cord cutting".
09-14-2017 10:00 AM
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