A live look at Georgia State and Georgia Southern

(09-10-2017 11:48 AM)Seminole Indian Wrote:  I'll ask again Why does any SBC team think they can beat this A-State team?

They have lost one SBC game in two years and are a lot more talented than any recent A-State team.

I will answer:
1) every year is different, lots of things change that give teams confidence. what has this stAte team done to take the heart away from every other team? you only played 1 game so far.
2) games are played on the field and not on paper. ( you will be favored most games)
3) Louisiana beat you last year. so yeah, i imagine they think they will win again.
4) why would any team that at least believes its a above average team think they can't win? UPSETS are a real thing. have you ever heard the motto in sports "why not us"?

(09-11-2017 08:02 AM)Golota Wrote:  

(09-11-2017 06:30 AM)CoastalAlum2011 Wrote:  Number of CCU fans who have called the UMASS win a "signature win for the conference": 0

Number of CCU fans who have called Coastal the second coming: 0

Number of Coastal fans who have said Coastal is the best in the conference: 0

Number of Coastal fans who have even bragged to other Sun Belt members about beating UMASS on this site: 0

Number of ULM fans who have mastered the Straw Man logical fallacy: at least 2

Golota and Arrowhead, for your light reading:

http://www.quickanddirtytips.com/educati...n-argument

lol Arrowhead never said any of that. You guys just got butt hurt for no reason.
CC y'all are very sensitive and fragile Bunch. You get all insecure when someone says they will beat you.
Best of luck to you and glad you're in conference but jeez ease up man.

The interesting thing is I wasn't even taking up for or talking about how great ULM is this year. Hell I dont know if we are are aren't. I was actually taking up for stAte. Like it or not they have established themselves as the premiere football program in the SBC. Just look at their record against the conference and their facilities and proposed upcoming upgrades. Not long ago they were pretty equal to ULM. Some good hires and good leadership changed that. In no way would I sit here and tell you That we are going to beat them this year as we haven't earned that yet. And for sure an FBS newbie that's only claim since being in FBS is a win against a crappy UMass team is not on their level. Even if ULM or Coastal beats them I will look at it as an upset and not that we are so much better. Do I think we are heading towards being respectable and compete for the west division with stAte? Absolutely, but we haven't proven we are there yet and Coastal sure hasn't.

(09-11-2017 07:53 AM)Arrowhead Wrote:  Go back and read and tell me where I said any of those things.

It wasn't what you said as much as how you said it, as if we were the one's bragging and talking up the win. You had us 6th in your own poll, clearly placing some value on the UMass win, but then went off to discount it entirely because someone ranked us a mere 1-2 spots higher than you... Anyways, it's no big deal IMO. Here's my rankings fwiw.

1) stAte
2) NMSt
3) App St
4) Troy
---dropoff---
5) Coastal
6) ULM
7) South Alabama
8) Louisiana
9) Idaho
---dropoff---
10) Tx St
11) Ga Southern
12) Ga State

I still think App and Troy are better than NMSt. and GS will finish better than their current placement.

(09-11-2017 10:48 AM)CCUBrad Wrote:  [quote='Arrowhead' pid='14574585' dateline='1505134386']

Go back and read and tell me where I said any of those things.

It wasn't what you said as much as how you said it, as if we were the one's bragging and talking up the win. You had us 6th in your own poll, clearly placing some value on the UMass win, but then went off to discount it entirely because someone ranked us a mere 1-2 spots higher than you... Anyways, it's no big deal IMO. Here's my rankings fwiw.


I did place value in y'all's win over UMass, hence my personal ranking, but in fact if you go back and read I clearly pointed out multiple times that this wasn't on Coastal fans, as none of y'all said anything about it. It was the questioning of whether your win over a crappy UMass team mean y'all were as good as an stAte team that barely lost to Nebraska. I also don't know how much nicer I could have stated my points, if you are saying its how I said it. Trust me, things get much more direct on this board than I put them. Anyway, as far as I am concerned, water under the bridge. Good luck this weekend.

(09-11-2017 01:27 PM)Arrowhead Wrote:  

(09-11-2017 10:48 AM)CCUBrad Wrote:  [quote='Arrowhead' pid='14574585' dateline='1505134386']

Go back and read and tell me where I said any of those things.

It wasn't what you said as much as how you said it, as if we were the one's bragging and talking up the win. You had us 6th in your own poll, clearly placing some value on the UMass win, but then went off to discount it entirely because someone ranked us a mere 1-2 spots higher than you... Anyways, it's no big deal IMO. Here's my rankings fwiw.


I did place value in y'all's win over UMass, hence my personal ranking, but in fact if you go back and read I clearly pointed out multiple times that this wasn't on Coastal fans, as none of y'all said anything about it. It was the questioning of whether your win over a crappy UMass team mean y'all were as good as an stAte team that barely lost to Nebraska. I also don't know how much nicer I could have stated my points, if you are saying its how I said it. Trust me, things get much more direct on this board than I put them. Anyway, as far as I am concerned, water under the bridge. Good luck this weekend.

Geez would y'all just shut up already! The entire league has looked like crap.

Two weeks from now ULM will end hudspeths tenure. Hopefully.

(09-11-2017 01:27 PM)Arrowhead Wrote:  Anyway, as far as I am concerned, water under the bridge. Good luck this weekend.

Agreed. No offence taken. I'm actually hoping y'all pull out the win this week too. I don't had a problem w/ u or ULM. Though, I wouldn't be super upset if Golota happened to have an explosive episode of diarrhea the next time he finds himself in an extremely long restroom line. That's about the extent of my frustration.

https://twitter.com/RememberF5/status/90...6902548481

Forgotten 5 power rankings...

App
Troy
stAte
NMSU
Coastal
ULM
Idaho
Louisiana
S. Alabama
Tx St.
GaSt.
GaSo.

https://www.underdogdynasty.com/2017/9/1...rgia-state

Underdog Dynasty Power Rankings

AppSt.
stAte
Troy
NMSt.
Louisiana
Idaho
S. Alabama
ULM
Coastal
Tx. St.
GaSo
GaSt

(09-11-2017 09:26 AM)balanced_view Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 11:48 AM)Seminole Indian Wrote:  I'll ask again Why does any SBC team think they can beat this A-State team?

They have lost one SBC game in two years and are a lot more talented than any recent A-State team.

I will answer:
1) every year is different, lots of things change that give teams confidence. what has this stAte team done to take the heart away from every other team? you only played 1 game so far.
2) games are played on the field and not on paper. ( you will be favored most games)
3) Louisiana beat you last year. so yeah, i imagine they think they will win again.
4) why would any team that at least believes its a above average team think they can't win? UPSETS are a real thing. have you ever heard the motto in sports "why not us"?

5. They don't play App.
6. Nebraska beat them
7. It pisses Arkansas State fans off now that they have their newly obtained superiority complex

(09-10-2017 11:59 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 08:45 PM)CoastalAlum2011 Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 08:27 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 08:17 PM)Golota Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 07:57 PM)CoastalAlum2011 Wrote:  Serious question. Do you know how vegas odds are set?

How are they set?

They are set to balance action on both sides so that books can profit from the vig. However, if there were a better indicator of game outcomes than Vegas odds then someone would use that and Vegas would be out of business.

There is not a better publicly available indicator of game outcomes than Vegas odds.

It has nothing to do with predicting game outcomes. It has everything to do with predicting the betting public's perception of game outcomes.

Therefore, it's safe to assume that most of the betting public is not going to think a first year FBS team is going to win any given FBS game in their first season. So how do you balance the betting action on both sides? It's simple. You lower the expectations for Coastal on the betting line to try and entice people to take Coastal in their bet.

So if you're predicting a first year FBS team to win, you better keep the spread low so you can still entice people to take them.

It doesn't mean you think Coastal will only win by 3....it means that you think the betting public won't have confidence in a first year FBS squad.

That's what you see reflected there, and you'll see it all year when you look at the lines on Coastal games.

If you presume most of the money put on games is from Bubba betting on Texas Tech because he's a Texas Tech fan or Joe Bob looking at the line and think whatever SEC team is gonna whup up on whatever non-conference team then balancing the money is about the perceptions of uninformed bettors.

The reality is there is a lot of money wagered and the bulk of the real money is people who obsess over power ratings, team performance, injury reports, and such.

If the Bubbas bet Auburn heavily because they think Auburn is going to stomp a Sun Belt team the line climbs and the serious bettors jump in to grab a bargain until they drive it back down.

Good post. In general, betting against the public will assure you will, at worst, break even. The public is more often wrong than they are right.

(09-10-2017 04:23 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  Cajuns won't win 3 more games. HUD sealed his fate last season insulting the majority of the fan base. He is in year one of a trek year lame duck coach. He's done after '18.

Why would he not be fired this year. After all, its only three to four years too late already.

(09-11-2017 03:12 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(09-11-2017 09:26 AM)balanced_view Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 11:48 AM)Seminole Indian Wrote:  I'll ask again Why does any SBC team think they can beat this A-State team?

They have lost one SBC game in two years and are a lot more talented than any recent A-State team.

I will answer:
1) every year is different, lots of things change that give teams confidence. what has this stAte team done to take the heart away from every other team? you only played 1 game so far.
2) games are played on the field and not on paper. ( you will be favored most games)
3) Louisiana beat you last year. so yeah, i imagine they think they will win again.
4) why would any team that at least believes its a above average team think they can't win? UPSETS are a real thing. have you ever heard the motto in sports "why not us"?

5. They don't play App.
6. Nebraska beat them
7. It pisses Arkansas State fans off now that they have their newly obtained superiority complex

Newly obtained? I thought it was obtained last time stAte was in Boone and reinforced last time stAte was in Troy . . .

Unlike our non-fan advocate, I don't buy into the superior talent all should bow down to us trolling.

AState mucked along with the talent available in 2014. There were starters on that team that lost their spots in 2015 and 2016. There is a fifth year senior off that squad I think needs to lose his spot.

Historically in the Sun Belt you win titles with either the best depth or a remarkable run of luck on injuries.

(09-11-2017 02:12 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(09-11-2017 01:27 PM)Arrowhead Wrote:  

(09-11-2017 10:48 AM)CCUBrad Wrote:  [quote='Arrowhead' pid='14574585' dateline='1505134386']

Go back and read and tell me where I said any of those things.

It wasn't what you said as much as how you said it, as if we were the one's bragging and talking up the win. You had us 6th in your own poll, clearly placing some value on the UMass win, but then went off to discount it entirely because someone ranked us a mere 1-2 spots higher than you... Anyways, it's no big deal IMO. Here's my rankings fwiw.


I did place value in y'all's win over UMass, hence my personal ranking, but in fact if you go back and read I clearly pointed out multiple times that this wasn't on Coastal fans, as none of y'all said anything about it. It was the questioning of whether your win over a crappy UMass team mean y'all were as good as an stAte team that barely lost to Nebraska. I also don't know how much nicer I could have stated my points, if you are saying its how I said it. Trust me, things get much more direct on this board than I put them. Anyway, as far as I am concerned, water under the bridge. Good luck this weekend.

Geez would y'all just shut up already! The entire league has looked like crap.

Two weeks from now ULM will end hudspeths tenure. Hopefully.

put your hope somewhere else, the ulm thing is not happening. hud will win enough this year to keep his job.

(09-12-2017 08:01 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  Unlike our non-fan advocate, I don't buy into the superior talent all should bow down to us trolling.

AState mucked along with the talent available in 2014. There were starters on that team that lost their spots in 2015 and 2016. There is a fifth year senior off that squad I think needs to lose his spot.

Historically in the Sun Belt you win titles with either the best depth or a remarkable run of luck on injuries.

Making a prediction of your overall record based on your talent does not make me an advocate.

I've never said they should bow down to you guys, EVER, just asked why they feel they can beat you, or AppSt this year.

Just wanted to see if I wanted to change my prediction of one SBC loss to zero or to two. Decided to get on the fence and say it could be either, but lean more toward zero than before the Nebraska game.

I thought a power ranking was simply who you think looks like the best team at this point? It is always hard to judge on one or two games, especially when some play road games vs. SEC, ACC, Big Ten while other might have played FCS or MAC type programs. I promise that I will not give any weight when ASU beats UAPB by 60 this weekend.

The disparate scheduling and small sample is why the SBC and CUSA start at the bottom. Much better to schedule Big Ten or lower rung PAC-12 programs if you can get them.

(09-12-2017 09:23 AM)Crump1 Wrote:  I thought a power ranking was simply who you think looks like the best team at this point? It is always hard to judge on one or two games, especially when some play road games vs. SEC, ACC, Big Ten while other might have played FCS or MAC type programs. I promise that I will not give any weight when ASU beats UAPB by 60 this weekend.

The disparate scheduling and small sample is why the SBC and CUSA start at the bottom. Much better to schedule Big Ten or lower rung PAC-12 programs if you can get them.

I posted my rankings based on performance to date. Really could not rank them, just group them, so I agree it is hard, and in my case probably impossible.

In fact, as I have said many times all I have ever done is give a prediction of the overall record based only on talent rankings I no longer have access to anyway.

(09-11-2017 03:18 PM)airtroop Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 11:59 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 08:45 PM)CoastalAlum2011 Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 08:27 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  

(09-10-2017 08:17 PM)Golota Wrote:  How are they set?

They are set to balance action on both sides so that books can profit from the vig. However, if there were a better indicator of game outcomes than Vegas odds then someone would use that and Vegas would be out of business.

There is not a better publicly available indicator of game outcomes than Vegas odds.

It has nothing to do with predicting game outcomes. It has everything to do with predicting the betting public's perception of game outcomes.

Therefore, it's safe to assume that most of the betting public is not going to think a first year FBS team is going to win any given FBS game in their first season. So how do you balance the betting action on both sides? It's simple. You lower the expectations for Coastal on the betting line to try and entice people to take Coastal in their bet.

So if you're predicting a first year FBS team to win, you better keep the spread low so you can still entice people to take them.

It doesn't mean you think Coastal will only win by 3....it means that you think the betting public won't have confidence in a first year FBS squad.

That's what you see reflected there, and you'll see it all year when you look at the lines on Coastal games.

If you presume most of the money put on games is from Bubba betting on Texas Tech because he's a Texas Tech fan or Joe Bob looking at the line and think whatever SEC team is gonna whup up on whatever non-conference team then balancing the money is about the perceptions of uninformed bettors.

The reality is there is a lot of money wagered and the bulk of the real money is people who obsess over power ratings, team performance, injury reports, and such.

If the Bubbas bet Auburn heavily because they think Auburn is going to stomp a Sun Belt team the line climbs and the serious bettors jump in to grab a bargain until they drive it back down.

Good post. In general, betting against the public will assure you will, at worst, break even. The public is more often wrong than they are right.

The only reason you break even is because in the instance that you win, you win more money which covers up for the others losses.

My favorite bet is laying the points when the vig is +. In obvious situations where it is more likely the favored team wins, that is a value bet. Example was the Panthers and 49ers this past weekend. The line was -6 (+125), and was only one of two lines with + vig in the NFL this past week on the spread. That bet covered up for some other off the cuff bets I made last week.

Also won quite a bit of money off of the Kansas City game. The money line was +350 (bet $100 to win $350).

(09-12-2017 09:33 AM)Seminole Indian Wrote:  

(09-12-2017 09:23 AM)Crump1 Wrote:  I thought a power ranking was simply who you think looks like the best team at this point? It is always hard to judge on one or two games, especially when some play road games vs. SEC, ACC, Big Ten while other might have played FCS or MAC type programs. I promise that I will not give any weight when ASU beats UAPB by 60 this weekend.

The disparate scheduling and small sample is why the SBC and CUSA start at the bottom. Much better to schedule Big Ten or lower rung PAC-12 programs if you can get them.

I posted my rankings based on performance to date. Really could not rank them, just group them, so I agree it is hard, and in my case probably impossible.

In fact, as I have said many times all I have ever done is give a prediction of the overall record based only on talent rankings I no longer have access to anyway.

Lets say App had played Savannah State in the first week and not lost to Georgia, would you have placed them at Number 1?