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Wedge Offline
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Post: #1021
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(08-16-2017 05:58 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  NOBODY says pitchers have NO control over extra base hits, in this thread or elsewhere.

Nobody in this thread is saying it, but FanGraphs' explanation of FIP goes almost that far:

Quote:Research has shown that pitchers have very little control on the outcome of balls in play, so while we care about how often a pitcher allows a ball to be put into play, whether a ground ball goes for a hit or is turned into an out is almost entirely out of their control.

This justification of FIP is a fallacy. It takes an agreed-upon fact ("pitchers don't have 100% control over balls put in play because a fielder or a bad bounce or a bad umpire's call could conceivably affect whether the result is an out, a single, or an extra-base hit") and completely inverts it ("the pitcher's pitch selection, speed, and placement are almost irrelevant to how hard the ball is hit, or where it is hit, or whether the result is an out, a single, or an extra-base hit").
08-16-2017 06:36 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #1022
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(08-16-2017 06:36 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(08-16-2017 05:58 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  NOBODY says pitchers have NO control over extra base hits, in this thread or elsewhere.

Nobody in this thread is saying it, but FanGraphs' explanation of FIP goes almost that far:

Quote:Research has shown that pitchers have very little control on the outcome of balls in play, so while we care about how often a pitcher allows a ball to be put into play, whether a ground ball goes for a hit or is turned into an out is almost entirely out of their control.

This justification of FIP is a fallacy. It takes an agreed-upon fact ("pitchers don't have 100% control over balls put in play because a fielder or a bad bounce or a bad umpire's call could conceivably affect whether the result is an out, a single, or an extra-base hit") and completely inverts it ("the pitcher's pitch selection, speed, and placement are almost irrelevant to how hard the ball is hit, or where it is hit, or whether the result is an out, a single, or an extra-base hit").

Exactly. And I think a lot of traditional voters think this way. FIP takes things WAY too far the other way. And FIP by ignoring all non homer extra base hits- does say exactly that. Sorry but there's far more to pitching than just avoiding homers and walks and striking guys out. And that's what FIP is saying. And it's a joke.
08-16-2017 06:59 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #1023
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
I will state (for what seems like the thousandth time) that FIP is not to be taken as gospel. I do believe it holds much more weight than ERA, but runs allowed does have merit as a stat among many that are useful. Exit velocity, along with situational stats (bases empty, RISP, etc) are also statistics that have value in determining a pitcher's performance.
08-17-2017 09:56 AM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #1024
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Also FWIW these are each division's records with their top team subtracted (as we were talking about Sale and Scherzer whose teams' records shouldn't count in this case):
AL East: 241-241
AL Central: 218-256
AL West: 235-248
NL East: 207-266
NL Central: 232-251
NL West: 235-247

Hardly a surprise that the NL East is the worst division and its AL counterpart is the best.
08-17-2017 09:59 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #1025
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
the NL East though isn't close this year to one of the worst divisions of all time, like you claimed.

Bottom line, ERA isn't going away from voters. You can spew all you want about what should be important, all I care about is what IS important to the voters. And it's clear as day that ERA matters 1000000 times more than FIP does to most of the voters. There's a reason 2 years ago that Kershaw got all of 3 first place votes in the NL Cy Young. Despite his FIP being 0.36 better than Arrieta and 0.77 better than Greinke. Those 2 got 17 and 10 first place votes.

And conversely to a lot of the voters, Sale isn't having anywhere near the transcendent season that you're making it out to be. To a majority of the voters, it's not even remotely a historical season.
08-17-2017 11:25 AM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #1026
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(08-16-2017 06:59 PM)stever20 Wrote:  FIP takes things WAY too far the other way. And FIP by ignoring all non homer extra base hits- does say exactly that. Sorry but there's far more to pitching than just avoiding homers and walks and striking guys out. And that's what FIP is saying. And it's a joke.

No, that's NOT what FIP says. And ERA has one of the worst year-to-year correlations of any pitching metric at 0.41. That's a poor correlation and confirms that ERA is not nearly as useful as we'd like to think. FIP is far from perfect but much better at 0.62. That's a meaningful difference.

Do you really think ERA is better than FIP at determining a pitcher's value? If so, how do you account for variation in defensive capability? Batter speed on basepaths? Umpiring? The fact that "unearned" is basically arbitrary (unearned runs are often due to poor pitching)?
08-17-2017 11:56 AM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #1027
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(08-17-2017 11:25 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Bottom line, ERA isn't going away from voters. You can spew all you want about what should be important, all I care about is what IS important to the voters. And it's clear as day that ERA matters 1000000 times more than FIP does to most of the voters.

I don't think that's the argument here, especially when you start calling FIP a joke. It's one thing to say "voters like ERA" (which I think we all agree with); it's quite another thing to say "ERA is the best way to measure pitcher value", which it seems you are implying.
08-17-2017 12:00 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #1028
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(08-17-2017 12:00 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(08-17-2017 11:25 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Bottom line, ERA isn't going away from voters. You can spew all you want about what should be important, all I care about is what IS important to the voters. And it's clear as day that ERA matters 1000000 times more than FIP does to most of the voters.

I don't think that's the argument here, especially when you start calling FIP a joke. It's one thing to say "voters like ERA" (which I think we all agree with); it's quite another thing to say "ERA is the best way to measure pitcher value", which it seems you are implying.

This is exactly what I'm saying. I don't really care what the voters value, I'm speaking from the perspective of an informed baseball fan. Voters gave Maury Wills the MVP in 1962 over Mays, when clearly the latter was far more deserving. Sure, in the eyes of the voters Wills deserved it. But an informed fan knows otherwise. There are no perfect stats, but some are more valuable than others. FIP (while far from perfect), is more useful than ERA (especially when combined with BABIP and exit velocity).
08-17-2017 12:07 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #1029
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
no, FIP to me is saying what should have happened. But ERA is what actually did happen.

And yes, FIP is saying the only batted balls we care about are homers. And that's a joke. When 90+% of extra base hits are directly related to the pitcher. You can say how is it 90%? It could be 80% or 95%. But bottom line a vast majority of extra base hits are due to a pitcher. And FIP doesn't care about those. Advanced metrics have got to find a way to take into account the extra base hits. Because a pitcher can control far more of that than you want to admit.

Pitching is far more than just striking out guys.

ERA IMO is far better in measuring what a pitcher has done in a season than FIP. ERA is what actually DID happen. FIP is what maybe kind of should have happened. 2 totally different animals.
08-17-2017 12:18 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #1030
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(08-17-2017 12:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  When 90+% of extra base hits are directly related to the pitcher.

You're going to have to support this before I take it seriously.
08-17-2017 01:12 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #1031
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(08-17-2017 12:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  no, FIP to me is saying what should have happened. But ERA is what actually did happen.

And yes, FIP is saying the only batted balls we care about are homers. And that's a joke. When 90+% of extra base hits are directly related to the pitcher. You can say how is it 90%? It could be 80% or 95%. But bottom line a vast majority of extra base hits are due to a pitcher. And FIP doesn't care about those. Advanced metrics have got to find a way to take into account the extra base hits. Because a pitcher can control far more of that than you want to admit.

Pitching is far more than just striking out guys.

ERA IMO is far better in measuring what a pitcher has done in a season than FIP. ERA is what actually DID happen. FIP is what maybe kind of should have happened. 2 totally different animals.

You keep saying that ERA is what DID happen. But what DID happen is not the responsibility solely of the pitcher. There are plenty of other factors involved. Are you comfortable dismissing all of them?
08-17-2017 01:14 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #1032
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(08-17-2017 01:14 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(08-17-2017 12:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  no, FIP to me is saying what should have happened. But ERA is what actually did happen.

And yes, FIP is saying the only batted balls we care about are homers. And that's a joke. When 90+% of extra base hits are directly related to the pitcher. You can say how is it 90%? It could be 80% or 95%. But bottom line a vast majority of extra base hits are due to a pitcher. And FIP doesn't care about those. Advanced metrics have got to find a way to take into account the extra base hits. Because a pitcher can control far more of that than you want to admit.

Pitching is far more than just striking out guys.

ERA IMO is far better in measuring what a pitcher has done in a season than FIP. ERA is what actually DID happen. FIP is what maybe kind of should have happened. 2 totally different animals.

You keep saying that ERA is what DID happen. But what DID happen is not the responsibility solely of the pitcher. There are plenty of other factors involved. Are you comfortable dismissing all of them?

a whole hell of a lot more comfortable than ignoring all of them. A pitcher is responsible for far more than just walks, strikeouts, and homers.
08-17-2017 02:04 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #1033
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Pitcher A is pitching to Batter B with RISP. In one scenario Pitcher A has Andrelton Simmons behind him at SS. B hits a grounder to the hole between 3rd and short. Simmons fields it cleanly and throws him out. In another scenario, it's Brad Miller behind A. Batter B gets the exact same pitch in the exact same location and hits it with the exact same velocity to the exact same location. Miller can't get to it, it goes through the hole and scores a run.

Exact same pitcher and batter but one outcome is a negative impact on ERA and the other is a positive one.

Another example: Two quick outs in an inning. On the third batter, Miller boots the ball (no surprise) and runner is safe. Next batter hits a triple. Does A deserve the run that scores? He sure didn't throw a very good pitch, but ERA doesn't care - it's not his fault, right?

Just 2 examples of many, many common outcomes where ERA gives a very misleading view of pitcher value. You've got to correct for them OR you've got to consider ADDITIONAL information to evaluate a pitcher.
(This post was last modified: 08-17-2017 02:31 PM by Brookes Owl.)
08-17-2017 02:30 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #1034
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(08-17-2017 02:30 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Just 2 examples of many, many common outcomes where ERA gives a very misleading view of pitcher value. You've got to correct for them OR you've got to consider ADDITIONAL information to evaluate a pitcher.

01-ncaabbs
08-17-2017 02:45 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #1035
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(08-17-2017 02:30 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Just 2 examples of many, many common outcomes where ERA gives a very misleading view of pitcher value. You've got to correct for them OR you've got to consider ADDITIONAL information to evaluate a pitcher.

The fact that ERA is far from perfect doesn't mean that a mishmash of statistics tweaked to create a number similar to ERA is needed. Just look at other data. The raw data that goes into FIP tells you all you need to know anyway.
08-17-2017 05:59 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #1036
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(08-17-2017 05:59 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(08-17-2017 02:30 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Just 2 examples of many, many common outcomes where ERA gives a very misleading view of pitcher value. You've got to correct for them OR you've got to consider ADDITIONAL information to evaluate a pitcher.

The fact that ERA is far from perfect doesn't mean that a mishmash of statistics tweaked to create a number similar to ERA is needed. Just look at other data. The raw data that goes into FIP tells you all you need to know anyway.

Yeah, that's a valid point. But let's face it, that "mishmash" exists because they were looking for a number that would be in the neighborhood of ERA. The advanced stats guys have a marketing problem. They clearly tried to create FIP to look like ERA so the transition would be easier. And even that's hard enough, but trying to get rid of a single number in favor of 4 that you track separately? Very tough sell.
08-17-2017 11:31 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #1037
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Advanced stats guys problem is they took the "problem" and went too far the other way. To act like no non homer extra base hit should impact a pitcher is laughably ignorant. That's the problem with FIP. Pretty much all FIP says is strike out a lot of guys and you are a great pitcher. And there's more to pitching than striking out guys and avoiding walks and homers.

I mean we had a guy last year- Alfredo Simon. He had a game where he gave up 14 hits and 10 runs in 4.1 innings. But no homers and 1 walk and 2 k's. His game FIP was 2.92. So FIP said that he was a very much above average pitcher that game. And that's a complete joke.
08-18-2017 12:19 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #1038
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(07-10-2017 08:51 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Ryan Zimmerman wRC+ and ISO by month:
April: 241 / .466
May: 133 / .223
June: 104 / .185
July: 30 / .000

The July sample size is obviously small, but those numbers are not trending in the right direction. Of course while that's been happening, Rendon has gone supernova. His fWAR is already 4.1. Helluva season and he isn't even in Miami right now. What a joke. Just put him at 2B and play ball
this post was done the morning of July 10.
Since then his wRC+ is 122(and he hit a homer tonight) and his ISO is .311. Guess his demise was quite wrong.
08-18-2017 12:30 AM
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Lush Offline
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Post: #1039
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
[Image: 25573344-jpg.279013]

i'm so knowledgeable about baseball thanks to your conversations. i feel like you all already know this. anyone think scherzer gets in the hall? what about jose fernandez? is thurmon munson in the hall?
08-18-2017 08:55 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #1040
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Scherzer probably with a normal career decline will get in 1st ballot. 2 Cy Youngs(and a 3rd very likely this year) along with 3000+ k's and 200+ wins- easy HOF.

Jose Fernandez- just too short to get in. Not just only 4 years- but the fact that 2 were injury shortened years.

Thurmon Munson- not in HOF.
08-18-2017 09:12 AM
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