(07-19-2017 07:12 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(07-18-2017 08:11 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Bartolo Colon for AL Cy Young. 3 shutout innings so far vs Yankees for the Twins....

now that's a stever pick that I can get behind

Also, JD Martinez to the Dbacks. He's a god awful fielder, but one of the best RHH in the game. Gives them an immediate boost against Kershaw, Hill and Wood

Yeah, big move. I'm pretty sure the Dodgers were looking at him. LA will have to stumble pretty hard to lose the division, but even with the recent tough stretch AZ is looking good for a wild card and Martinez will be a big boost in the post season. That Dodgers top three of LHP/LHP/LHP is a little concerning. I'd kind of prefer the Dodgers target a RH starter as the deadline approaches...

(07-19-2017 12:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  man what the heck is up with all these hand injuries...

first it was Trout. Then this week Carlos Correia from the Astros who is out for 6-8 weeks- and now Kris Bryant gets hurt with what sounds like a similar injury.

it really sucks when it happens to the stars

(07-19-2017 12:18 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(07-19-2017 12:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  man what the heck is up with all these hand injuries...

first it was Trout. Then this week Carlos Correia from the Astros who is out for 6-8 weeks- and now Kris Bryant gets hurt with what sounds like a similar injury.

it really sucks when it happens to the stars

yeah, don't remember a year with as many hand injuries- and especially hand injuries that aren't directly related to HBP(which is Trea Turner and how he got hurt).

Holy crap! Giants are bringing back The Panda!

(07-19-2017 12:43 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(07-19-2017 12:18 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(07-19-2017 12:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  man what the heck is up with all these hand injuries...

first it was Trout. Then this week Carlos Correia from the Astros who is out for 6-8 weeks- and now Kris Bryant gets hurt with what sounds like a similar injury.

it really sucks when it happens to the stars

yeah, don't remember a year with as many hand injuries- and especially hand injuries that aren't directly related to HBP(which is Trea Turner and how he got hurt).

You've got to be sh!tting me: JD Martinez injures his HAND in his first game with Dbacks. Wow.

(07-20-2017 01:26 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(07-19-2017 12:43 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(07-19-2017 12:18 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(07-19-2017 12:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  man what the heck is up with all these hand injuries...

first it was Trout. Then this week Carlos Correia from the Astros who is out for 6-8 weeks- and now Kris Bryant gets hurt with what sounds like a similar injury.

it really sucks when it happens to the stars

yeah, don't remember a year with as many hand injuries- and especially hand injuries that aren't directly related to HBP(which is Trea Turner and how he got hurt).

You've got to be sh!tting me: JD Martinez injures his HAND in his first game with Dbacks. Wow.

the list is getting quite long

(07-19-2017 10:39 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  Holy crap! Giants are bringing back The Panda!

would you like to kill me now, or later? I ask only that you do it quickly

If the Panda comes back and the Giants win another title, he's going to be a real folk hero.

(07-20-2017 07:47 AM)stever20 Wrote:  If the Panda comes back and the Giants win another title, he's going to be a real folk hero.

Corey Kluber has a better chance of winning the 2017 Cy Young award

(03-29-2017 01:49 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(03-29-2017 12:53 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-29-2017 08:57 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(03-28-2017 11:28 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I think the big question for me will be can Bryce Harper keep up what he's done this spring. In 53 ab's he's got 8 homers. Consider in his prior 243 ab's in spring training over 6 seasons- he had all of 10 homers- never more than 3 in 1 spring. If Harper is back to 2015 Harper, Nats are a real dangerous team. His current projections of .286 30 homers 91 RBI seems to be very much pessimistic.

Chris Marrero (who probably won't even make our roster) also has 8 spring training HR. I'm not saying I don't believe in Harper, but I'm so skeptical of spring training stats. I think that projection is mostly fair. I mean how many HR would you project? I think 40 is a bit bullish for a projection

I think 99% of the time spring training stats are meaningless. But 1% of the time it does translate. When a great player has a spring like what Harper has had- it can be a real sign of a possible huge season....

why I think the 30 hr projection is unreasonable is that is his average per 162 games right now for his career. I think if he stays healthy 35-40 is much more of a realistic projection- and even there I might lean towards the over.

i think 35 is fair, but I wouldn't predict more than that. I mean the last 3 seasons were 24, 42 and 13. I don't think there's much of a pattern in that. In short, i wouldn't be surprised with anything between 30-40. I mean, his career ISOs are:
2012: .206
2013: .212
2014: .151
2015: .319
2016: .198

So basically you're predicting another .300+ season. I could certainly see it happening, but it's definitely bullish

Well, I think I nailed the thought on Harper. .286 30 91 seemed so unreasonable to me. He's already at .337 24 73- with a .298 ISO. Projected for 38-40 homers now. It's why I thought 35-40 seemed much more reasonable than 30.

(07-19-2017 08:21 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Yankees with huge trade getting Frazier and Robinson from the White Sox. Huge move- one that the Red Sox will have to respond to....

Speaking of Red Sox- man they've been grinding here last few days. A whopping 58 innings pitched since start of Saturday. Which makes their decision to not start Sale until Friday that much more questionable to me. You would think you would want your top guy starting on normal 4 days rest instead of throwing Fister out there, exposing your pen.

And Fister did exactly what you would expect, only going 4.1 innings. Really don't understand the logic at all in that.

May be end of the line for Fister- he of a 10.97 ERA in the month of July(and a FIP that is 8.29, so not like he's been unlucky). Only Sean Newcomb of the Braves has been a worse pitcher than Fister in July.

Sale with 6 shutout innings yesterday. He's now 12-4 with a 2.48 ERA and nearly 40 more innings than Kluber. The Cy Young race is over

#$&@

Look at Kluber. He's now 8-3 with a 2.74 ERA. The IP lead(which is meaningless if Sale falls apart) is only 33 innings. If Kluber keeps on with days like today, Sale isn't in the clear yet by any stretch. Sale's going to have to continue to pitch well... It's a 2 guy race....

Over in the NL- the race may be over faster. Kershaw going on the DL with back problems again. Scherzer may win by default if Kershaw was out for a long time. Hopefully not- want to see the 2 of them go blow for blow.

today may really impact the trading deadline- not only Kershaw going down, but also Strasburg.

Also, I would argue the only reason why Sale even has a lead now is the last 7 starts he's gone 4-2 with a 1.61 ERA. If he had kept his ERA at 4.57(which it was the 7 starts prior to that), he sure wouldn't be leading much at all right now. Hell, if the ERA was just double what it is these last 7 starts- still a good 3.22 ERA in those 7 starts- his season ERA right now would have 9 more earned runs- giving him a season ERA of 3.06.

If right now it was-
Sale 12-4 with a 3.06 ERA with 200 k's
Kluber 8-3 with a 2.74 ERA with 149 k's

things would be extremely tight right now. So, Sale has had to go out and pitch extremely well.

And the thing to really remember there's still a good 11-12 starts left for both of them. Still a good third of a season left. With a guy like Kluber close enough like he is, to act like August and September won't matter is rather ignorant quite frankly.

(07-23-2017 07:21 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Over in the NL- the race may be over faster. Kershaw going on the DL with back problems again. Scherzer may win by default if Kershaw was out for a long time. Hopefully not- want to see the 2 of them go blow for blow.

Yeah, this is a bummer. Kershaw had just taken over the ERA lead and this was looking like a great race. Now, who knows. I've heard a couple of opinions that "he didn't have pain in his leg like last year" but I'm not sure if that's meaningful. Too many people have been ignoring that this guy had a serious injury last year and herniated disks do not heal. Back pain is a big part of Kershaw's future, unfortunately.

Quote:today may really impact the trading deadline- not only Kershaw going down, but also Strasburg.

Dodgers blogger after both of these guys left games early:

Chad Moriyama Wrote:Rangers FO is fapping furiously right now, probably.

(07-23-2017 11:13 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Also, I would argue the only reason why Sale even has a lead now is the last 7 starts he's gone 4-2 with a 1.61 ERA.

Demonstrably untrue statement, which you basically admit below. He has a large lead right now, which means he absolutely could have given up more runs and kept the lead.

Quote:If he had kept his ERA at 4.57(which it was the 7 starts prior to that), he sure wouldn't be leading much at all right now.

Why would a very good pitcher collapse in this manner? What is your reason for posing this hypothetical?

Quote:Hell, if the ERA was just double what it is these last 7 starts- still a good 3.22 ERA in those 7 starts- his season ERA right now would have 9 more earned runs- giving him a season ERA of 3.06.

If right now it was-
Sale 12-4 with a 3.06 ERA with 200 k's
Kluber 8-3 with a 2.74 ERA with 149 k's

things would be extremely tight right now. So, Sale has had to go out and pitch extremely well.

Agreed. And pitching well is what Cy Young candidates do, otherwise they're not Cy Young candidates.

Quote:And the thing to really remember there's still a good 11-12 starts left for both of them. Still a good third of a season left. With a guy like Kluber close enough like he is, to act like August and September won't matter is rather ignorant quite frankly.

Come on; you're better than this!

Cubs tied with the Brewers for first place. That was quick

no, swoosh is better than to say that the Cy Young race is over. Because it's not. When you have a guy who has a ERA of 2.74 and only 0.26 behind Sale- and 2 months to go- it's still wide open. If Kluber keeps on pitching like he has- 5-1 1.52 ERA in his last 10 starts- Sale can't have much of a let down at all.

And Sale hasn't just pitched well. He's pitched great. He's had a 1.61 ERA in his last 7 starts.

An interesting fantasy baseball column about pitching...
https://sports.yahoo.com/news/one-reason...29013.html
Kind of interesting that 20% of MLB batters get to a 3 ball count now, most since 2007.

And interesting that in a 2-0, 2-1, or 3 ball count that the OBP for batters in those situations is a whopping .450.

Also would follow that the number of pitches per batter is at a post 2000 high of 3.89. Think about it. For a pitcher to go thru the lineup just once now, it's a whopping 35 pitches. And so often you see something like yesterday's Nats/ DBacks game where the Nats bat around in the 1st inning vs Robbie Ray, and he's got 35 pitches in the 1st inning. Means you will see the pen a whole lot faster and more often in a 3-4 game series.