Underdog
All American
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RE: Football at WSU
(07-16-2017 10:03 PM)C0|db|00ded Wrote: (07-16-2017 07:42 PM)Underdog Wrote: (07-16-2017 01:20 PM)C0|db|00ded Wrote: Are you certain you would feel the same way about WSU 7 years from now if something really strong develops? And again, what if the AAC continues to close the gap between itself and the Big12-2 over the next 7 years? Then, after the major players leave the then Big12-6, it will be MUCH weaker than the AAC. In fact, the moment those 4 schools leave, the AAC will be the new #5 in the Power 5. Why not let them sweat? Why go to a conference as replacements enjoying sloppy seconds, when you can maintain dignity and force them to look at either breaking up (to join us), or dilution from the CUSA/MWC by attempting to survive as a conference; either scenario seems like a win for the AAC.
So to clarify:
Scenario 1) The AAC holds firm when the Big12-2 becomes the Big12-6. The media outlets sit on their hands waiting to see which conference becomes the next P5 with the AAC temporarily gaining the label. One school in the Big12-6 gets nervous and begins talks with Aresco. Aresco leaks the conversation to the media creating chaos. The stalemate then immediately dissipates with the AAC picking up 2-4 teams and the remainder heading to the Pac12/MWC.
Scenario 2) The Big12-6 stands pat arrogantly saying FU to the AAC and fills 4 slots (the minimum damage possible) with BYU, SDSU, and 2 other schools that will do nothing but put the final nails in the coffin of the Big12-2, -4, +4G5 from a fan perspective.
In both of these scenarios the AAC wins and easily gains the 5th spot in the Power 5
Scenario 3) We'll call this the "wheat harvest" scenario as it will be bye bye for the Shockers. In this scenario the Big12-6 contacts the top AAC schools and says, "Hey, remember us? Remember when we held you guys hostage on a string and then cut it at the last minute? Well, we've been thinking... we made a mistake and we'd like you to join us now." If this were a movie you would tell THEM to **** off and the AAC would prance off into the sunset, C0|db|00ded and Bearcats#1 walking hand in hand. But this isn't the movies and everybody in major college athletics is nothing but a turncoat whore. If the B12-6 still had money to flash, they would flash it effectively killing the AAC and making the now B12-2, -6, +AAC4 slightly better than the previous AAC as it stood before the exodus. Hurrah for the 4 that left and tough titties for the 8 that remain.
The point of my exercise here is to tear away the veil from the false dilemma that is saying the top 4 AAC schools MUST go to the Big12-6 in 2025. Yes, there will be an ample war chest built up if the B12-6 stays together, but what will the revenues be in the AAC in 2025? And what kind of a massive raise would they get in 2025 after the new B12-2, -4, +4G5 unites leaving the AAC as the undisputed (or perhaps barely disputed) new P5 conference?
All of this is coming from a Shocker fan so of course it's "slightly" biased, but I think I make some good points here. Everything hinges on the development of this conference over the next 7 years to something that rivals the B12-2 creating a barely visible line of demarcation between P5 and P6. If that happens things might get interesting. If the AAC slumps after the BE funds are depleted and slides back closer to the G5... the ending of our story becomes quite clear.
That brings me to Scenario 4 where I offer to get down on my knees... ummm 
Scenario 4) In this scenario the AAC continues to struggle funding football but basketball is on fire with 4-5 invites every year, another national championship obtained by a conference member, and several Elite 8's etc. This scenario PLUS the B12-6 wanting to expand to 16 somehow gets Wichita State invited as a bball only. OR... if we happen to start FCS football at some point over the next 7 years, we join with football converting to DI or transitioning over a period of years.
Just more thoughts of mine on how to stave off the impending global event projected to hit Shocker Nation in T-minus 7 years and counting...
T
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None of your scenarios correlate with practical and probable realignment possibilities…. The biggest flaw in your scenarios is that you think all the current members of this conference want to remain here and that realignment revolves around basketball—football will be the sport of emphasis in any future realignment regarding this conference and the B12. The war-chest of $$$ that this conference once had is almost depleted. Therefore, each school in this conference will make an individual decision that is best for its institution when realignment happens in the future.
The B12 (believe it or not) will be the shot-callers. From reading your post (#189), you mistakenly believe that schools in the B12 will not replace those that are leaving. The primary reason in my opinion why certain schools in this conference were vetted for possible expansion was so that the B12 could decide which schools will replace those that are leaving in the future. The departing schools are obligated to give up 50% of their TV $$ to the remaining B12 leftovers—but it won’t happen that way:
About 4 years before the B12’s TV contract and GOR expires, they will likely invite four schools from this conference and pay them less money. Those four schools have to give this conference a 2 year notice. When they arrive in the B12, it will be for the final 2 years of its TV contract and GOR. They will likely get $5mil each; the B12 will use $5 mill from each school to reimburse it for paying their exit fees. This $5 mil deduction would likely occur over a 2 year period because the American exit fee is currently $10 mil per school (if I’m not mistaken). Any entrance fees would likely get deducted from their entitled $20 mil. Those four schools would make the B12 an additional $80 mill in TV $$. If we deduct $20 mil, that leaves the B12 $60 mil. My point: The departing B12 schools will likely use the new additions and the networks to pay their exit fees. Thus, they will offer the B12 leftovers $120 mil and guarantee that they will have four new members to rebuild their conference.
If you don’t think that this is how it will likely happen, please consider how schools were incrementally added to this conference: Group 1 was Memphis Houston, SMU, USF; Group 2 was ECU, Tulane, and Tulsa; Group 3 was Navy and subsequently WS.....
I should correct you on a few things:
1) I never said the B12-2, -4 would not try to replace their lost members. I said exactly the opposite. I think you need to read my manifesto again... slowly. My premise may be entirely incorrect, but you are misquoting me.
1a)Yes... You did.... Read the read font above.
2) If I'm wrong to assume that the current membership doesn't want to be here, should I then assume they are planning on resting on their laurels for the next 7 years in hopes that something falls in their lap while their program decays? If not, and they plan on working very hard to regain their previous status, what's to say that this conference won't be much stronger in 7 years than it is today? That was my entire point.
2a) UC and UCONN once played in arguably the best bball conference ever.... Moreover, UC and UCONN possibly could still be in the Big East if they were willing to place their football somewhere else. However, they agreed to assemble this conference basically for their football programs with the hope of eventually getting into an “Autonomous” conference. Furthermore, every CUSA school invited to this conference has the same aspirations of getting into an “Autonomous” conference except for Navy. It’s content with this conference and could easily survive as an independent again. My point: Every member except for Navy wouldn’t hesitate or regret leaving WS behind in this conference when the B12 leftovers call for replacements.
3) Your talk about the B12-2 expanding early - expound on that. Are you saying that the current B12-2 will invite 4 members from here 4 years before 2025? In 2021? Meaning that 4 schools in here could possibly announce their departure from the AAC in 2019? I'm not following you.
3a) I gave you my opinion of what would likely happen and why in post #197. I even disclosed to you that this conference was incrementally expanded in a similar way. I don’t know how else to explain it to you... but will try again: Please consider that Memphis, Houston, SMU, and UCF actually played briefly in a BCS conference with departing Louisville and Rutgers. The departing B12 schools would “likely” use that same logic to assist the B12 leftovers. However, they would be obligated to $80 mil for the last 2 years of their TV contract if we use your example of 4 schools departing. Consequently, the departing B12 schools "COULD" invite 4 schools from this conference—which would make the B12 a minimum of $80 mil in TV $$—to help pay for most of their exit fees and guarantee the leftovers 4 additional members before leaving. Your “4 years before 2025?” question was also explained. The departing schools from this conference have to give a 2 year notice. Therefore, by the time they arrive in the B12, only 2 years would be left on its TV contract and GOR. The departing schools would only need the additional revenue from the new members for 2 years before leaving because they would likely receive far less $$. THIS IS ONLY MY OPINION OF WHAT WOULD LIKELY HAPPEN.
4) I know football drives the bus, but you minimize basketball too much I think. Basketball matters too otherwise we wouldn't be here. I'm certain March Madness rivals BCS/playoff football viewership. It's like a fking national holiday. To me, college football bowls and NFL playoffs have always seemed to overlap but what do I know, I don't watch much of either. March Madness is a very unique time/brand/event.
4a) I don’t minimize basketball—the networks do. If the networks were willing to pay the “Autonomous” conferences the same FBS money for basketball, UCONN wouldn’t be here…..
T
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My comments are in bold ^…. I hope my response is satisfactory and gets this thread back on topic….
(This post was last modified: 07-26-2017 02:48 PM by Underdog.)
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Cincinnati has been in 13 Bowl games since 2000 including 2 BCS Bowls. Most football programs would give their left nut for that "upstart" history.
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