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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #761
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Totally worth it.
07-11-2017 12:21 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #762
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Home/Road wRC+ rankings

Nationals: 4th/6th
Dodgers: Tied 1st/10th
Brewers: 18th/7th
Cubs: 14th/19th
Dbacks: 2nd/28th

Which of these is not like the other?
07-11-2017 01:12 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #763
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
actually looking some of your numbers were wrong.....

Nationals 4/t6
Dodgers t1/10
Brewers 9/t6
Cubs t14/19
D'backs 9/28

Yes the D'backs are much better at home. But would you rather have that or a 6th team that you failed to mention...
Rockies 29/t26

Oh, and Rockies in the last 30 days rating- 30th. With only a 74 as a team.
07-11-2017 01:20 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #764
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
swoosh, where'd you get your numbers? stever, your numbers look like fangraphs', except for Brewers home...

Nats 4/t6
Dodgers t1/10
Brewers t18/t6
Cubs t14/19
Dbacks 9/28

That's a good-sized reverse split for the Brewers. Isn't Miller Park supposed to be hitter-friendly? ETA: Yep, Park Factor of 1.102.
(This post was last modified: 07-11-2017 01:49 PM by Brookes Owl.)
07-11-2017 01:47 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #765
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Also, what helps Arizona is on the road they are the #1 pitching staff in the league(by both FIP and ERA). And it's not really even that close- ERA by a good 0.37 of a run and FIP even by 0.10(and a good 0.25 on the next best NL team).

You have 3 teams where their park is really hurting them...
Brewers- 18 home/ 5 away ERA 21 home/12 away FIP
Cubs- 16 home/ 9 away 18 home/7 away FIP
Rockies- 28 home/ 3 away 23 home/6 away FIP
07-11-2017 01:49 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #766
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(07-11-2017 01:47 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  swoosh, where'd you get your numbers? stever, your numbers look like fangraphs', except for Brewers home...

Nats 4/t6
Dodgers t1/10
Brewers t18/t6
Cubs t14/19
Dbacks 9/28

That's a good-sized reverse split for the Brewers. Isn't Miller Park supposed to be hitter-friendly? ETA: Yep, Park Factor of 1.102.

yeah you got me on the Brewers....

And the Rockies are not just 29th at home, but they are a distant 29th. Their wRC+ is only 82.
07-11-2017 01:53 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #767
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Don't know where I got some of those numbers. That's what happens when you try to do work while looking at Fangraphs
07-11-2017 02:53 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #768
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(07-11-2017 01:49 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Also, what helps Arizona is on the road they are the #1 pitching staff in the league(by both FIP and ERA). And it's not really even that close- ERA by a good 0.37 of a run and FIP even by 0.10(and a good 0.25 on the next best NL team).

You have 3 teams where their park is really hurting them...
Brewers- 18 home/ 5 away ERA 21 home/12 away FIP
Cubs- 16 home/ 9 away 18 home/7 away FIP
Rockies- 28 home/ 3 away 23 home/6 away FIP

And that's what you'd expect from those ballparks.

It's the Brewer's struggles with offense at home that is confusing. In fact, Rockies even more so. Rockies and Brewers are #3/#7 respectively in runs scored at home, but #29/#18 in wRC+. So we've got actual production that appears consistent with the park factors but predicted production that is mediocre (Brewers) to poor (Rockies). (Admittedly, there is an imbalance in home games that would mess with this evaluation, but: 1) I don't think it should be THAT much, and 2) I don't have the energy to track down R/G splits.)
07-11-2017 04:38 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #769
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(07-11-2017 04:38 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(07-11-2017 01:49 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Also, what helps Arizona is on the road they are the #1 pitching staff in the league(by both FIP and ERA). And it's not really even that close- ERA by a good 0.37 of a run and FIP even by 0.10(and a good 0.25 on the next best NL team).

You have 3 teams where their park is really hurting them...
Brewers- 18 home/ 5 away ERA 21 home/12 away FIP
Cubs- 16 home/ 9 away 18 home/7 away FIP
Rockies- 28 home/ 3 away 23 home/6 away FIP

And that's what you'd expect from those ballparks.

It's the Brewer's struggles with offense at home that is confusing. In fact, Rockies even more so. Rockies and Brewers are #3/#7 respectively in runs scored at home, but #29/#18 in wRC+. So we've got actual production that appears consistent with the park factors but predicted production that is mediocre (Brewers) to poor (Rockies). (Admittedly, there is an imbalance in home games that would mess with this evaluation, but: 1) I don't think it should be THAT much, and 2) I don't have the energy to track down R/G splits.)

I get that. But Arizona at home is still the #4 staff by ERA and #6 by FIP. And Arizona's park is always a pretty good hitters park. Just looking- #2 just behind Colorado so far this season. While Miller Park is 1.102, Chase Field is 1.248.
07-11-2017 04:45 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #770
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(07-11-2017 04:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(07-11-2017 04:38 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(07-11-2017 01:49 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Also, what helps Arizona is on the road they are the #1 pitching staff in the league(by both FIP and ERA). And it's not really even that close- ERA by a good 0.37 of a run and FIP even by 0.10(and a good 0.25 on the next best NL team).

You have 3 teams where their park is really hurting them...
Brewers- 18 home/ 5 away ERA 21 home/12 away FIP
Cubs- 16 home/ 9 away 18 home/7 away FIP
Rockies- 28 home/ 3 away 23 home/6 away FIP

And that's what you'd expect from those ballparks.

It's the Brewer's struggles with offense at home that is confusing. In fact, Rockies even more so. Rockies and Brewers are #3/#7 respectively in runs scored at home, but #29/#18 in wRC+. So we've got actual production that appears consistent with the park factors but predicted production that is mediocre (Brewers) to poor (Rockies). (Admittedly, there is an imbalance in home games that would mess with this evaluation, but: 1) I don't think it should be THAT much, and 2) I don't have the energy to track down R/G splits.)

I get that. But Arizona at home is still the #4 staff by ERA and #6 by FIP. And Arizona's park is always a pretty good hitters park. Just looking- #2 just behind Colorado so far this season. While Miller Park is 1.102, Chase Field is 1.248.

Yeah, I wasn't trying to argue your point about the Dbacks. I just took a closer look at the numbers and became kind of interested in the weird (to me) disparity between Runs Scored and wRC+ for the home teams at Coors and Miller.
(This post was last modified: 07-11-2017 05:01 PM by Brookes Owl.)
07-11-2017 05:00 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #771
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
i think it's cool to see Carlos Correa breaking out. I remember when the Astros drafted him first because he'd sign for under slot money. Not that they didn't like him, but I don't remember him being the consensus top pick. Fast forward five years and he's already at 12 WAR and on pace for a 7 WAR season. 161 wRC+ and .252 ISO at SS. Very impressive
07-13-2017 10:43 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #772
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
1 thing looking at baseball reference this morning that I thought was pretty interesting.

in the AL- all 15 teams are either in the playoffs, or within 7.5 games of the final wild card spot. Only Detroit, Oakland, and Chicago are outside of 5 games.

compare that to the NL, where only the 5 teams in the playoffs, Cubs, Cards, and Pirates are within 7.5 games of the playoffs. With the Cubs and Cards being closest at 5.5 games out of division race right now.
07-13-2017 11:23 AM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #773
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Red Sox release Panda...
07-14-2017 02:49 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #774
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
so Nats lose Ross for the season- needs TJ surgery.....

Makes these next 1-2 starts interesting for Roark. If he struggles, the Nats may be in the market for someone to help fill in the void there.
07-15-2017 06:23 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #775
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
so Nats get 10 so far tonight. Amazing stat- it's the 16th time this year that the Nats have scored at least 10 runs. That's almost 20% of the time- or once a week! That's just unreal- video game type stats....
07-15-2017 08:30 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #776
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
With 13-14 starts remaining, Sale's ERA is 2.59 and Kluber's is 2.86. Sale has thrown 35 more innings, has 4 more wins, 56 more K's and both have 24 BB.
07-16-2017 10:34 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #777
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(07-16-2017 10:34 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  With 13-14 starts remaining, Sale's ERA is 2.59 and Kluber's is 2.86. Sale has thrown 35 more innings, has 4 more wins, 56 more K's and both have 24 BB.

why do you quote innings like it's some huge determinant? It's not. Voters don't give a flip about innings- as long as you have at least 180 innings, you have a chance...

The ERA, wins, K's- now THOSE are why Sale would win the Cy Young.

And the biggest thing- the season isn't over yet. Sale has to continue to pitch well.
07-16-2017 11:22 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #778
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
coming out of the break, Colorado's plunge has continued. Now only 19-22 in the last 41 games(or in another way- 1/4 of the season). Now only 5.5 games up on the Cubs for the 2nd Wild Card spot. In the last 9 games- vs Cincy, White Sox, and Mets- 3 not good teams- they are only 4-5.
07-16-2017 11:40 AM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #779
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(07-16-2017 11:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(07-16-2017 10:34 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  With 13-14 starts remaining, Sale's ERA is 2.59 and Kluber's is 2.86. Sale has thrown 35 more innings, has 4 more wins, 56 more K's and both have 24 BB.

why do you quote innings like it's some huge determinant? It's not. Voters don't give a flip about innings- as long as you have at least 180 innings, you have a chance...

The ERA, wins, K's- now THOSE are why Sale would win the Cy Young.

And the biggest thing- the season isn't over yet. Sale has to continue to pitch well.

I quote innings, not because the voters care, but because if everything else is mostly equal, they'd turn to innings and say, well they've been the same pitcher, but Sale has done it by pitching a full season and Kluber has not
07-16-2017 12:05 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #780
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(07-16-2017 11:40 AM)stever20 Wrote:  coming out of the break, Colorado's plunge has continued. Now only 19-22 in the last 41 games(or in another way- 1/4 of the season). Now only 5.5 games up on the Cubs for the 2nd Wild Card spot. In the last 9 games- vs Cincy, White Sox, and Mets- 3 not good teams- they are only 4-5.

and also not surprising: Dbacks are 3-10 in their last 13
07-16-2017 12:07 PM
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