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Ratings CFP and NCAAT
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OrangeDude Offline
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Post: #1
Ratings CFP and NCAAT
Now that we are through 3 years of the CFP, I thought it might be interesting to look at the ratings/viewers and compare with the equivalent NCAAT games:

2014-15

CFPNCG - Ohio State/Oregon - 18.6 rating, 34.15M viewers
Sugar SF - Ohio State/Alabama - 15.2 rating, 28.27M viewers
Rose SF - Oregon/Florida State -14.8 rating, 28.16M viewers
Cotton - Michigan State/Baylor - 5.2 rating, 9.09M viewers
Orange - Georgia Tech/Mississippi State - 5.0 rating, 8.94M viewers
Fiesta - Boise State/Arizona - 4.6 rating, 7.41M viewers
Peach - Texas Christian/Ole Miss - 3.4 rating, 5.01M viewers

NCAACG - Duke/Wisconsin - 16.0 rating, 28.3M viewers
NCAAFF - Wisconsin/Kentucky - 12.4 rating, 22.6M viewers
NCAAFF - Duke/Michigan State - 8.7 rating, 15.3M viewers
NCAAE8 - Duke/Gonzaga - 8.9 rating, 14.7M viewers
NCAAE8 - Kentucky/Notre Dame - 8.4 rating, 14.7M viewers
NCAAE8 - Michigan State/Louisville - 6.7 rating, 10.6M viewers
NCAAE8 - Wisconsin /Arizona - 5.2 rating, 8.8M viewers

Overall Total Viewers CFP/Event Bowls - 121.03 Million
Overall Total Viewers NCAAT (Elite 8 and above) - 115.0 Million
Total Viewers NCAAT vs CFP - 95.0%

2015-16

CFPNCG - Alabama/Clemson - 15.0 rating, 26.18M viewers
Cotton SF - Alabama/Michigan State - 9.6 rating, 18.58M viewers
Orange SF - Clemson/Oklahoma - 9.1 rating, 15.64M viewers
Rose - Stanford/Iowa - 7.4 rating, 13.55M viewers
Fiesta - Ohio State/Notre Dame - 5.6 rating, 9.76M viewers
Sugar - Ole Miss/Oklahoma State - 5.1 rating, 8.94M viewers
Peach - Houston/Florida State - 3.7 rating, 5.61M viewers

NCAACG - Villanova/North Carolina - 10.6 rating, 17.8M viewers
NCAAFF - North Carolina/Syracuse - 7.3 rating, 12.9M viewers
NCAAFF- Villanova/Oklahoma - 6.1 rating, 10.5M viewers
NCAAE8 - Villanova/Kansas - 6.7 rating, 11.6M viewers
NCAAE8 - North Carolina/Notre Dame - 5.8 rating, 10.1M viewers
NCAAE8 - Oklahoma /Oregon - 4.6 rating, 7.7M viewers
NCAAE8 - Syracuse/Virginia - 4.5 rating, 7.6M viewers

Overall Total Viewers CFP/Event Bowls - 98.26 Million
Overall Total Viewers NCAAT (Elite 8 and above) - 78.2 Million
Total Viewers NCAAT vs CFP - 79.6%

2016-17

CFPNCG - Clemson/Alabama - 14.2 rating, 25.27M viewers
Peach SF - Alabama/Washington - 10.7 rating, 19.34M viewers
Fiesta SF - Clemson/Ohio State - 9.8 rating, 19.24M viewers
Rose - USC/Penn State - 8.6 rating, 15.74M viewers
Orange - Florida State/Michigan - 6.2 rating, 11.46M viewers
Sugar - Oklahoma/Auburn - 5.6 rating, 9.51M viewers
Cotton - Wisconsin/Western Michigan - 3.1 rating, 5.44M viewers

NCAACG - North Carolina/Gonzaga - 13.2 rating, 23.0M viewers
NCAAFF - North Carolina/Oregon - 10.4 rating, 18.8M viewers
NCAAFF - Gonzaga/South Carolina - 8.5 rating, 14.7M viewers
NCAAE8 - North Carolina/Kentucky - 8.9 rating, 15.5M viewers
NCAAE8 - South Carolina/Florida - 5.9 rating, 9.7M viewers
NCAAE8 - Oregon/Kansas - 5.4 rating, 9.3M viewers
NCAAE8 - Gonzaga/Xavier - 3.7 rating, 6.0M viewers

Overall Total Viewers CFP/Event Bowls - 106.0 Million
Overall Total Viewers NCAAT (Elite 8 and above) - 97.0 Million
Total Viewers NCAAT vs CFP - 91.5%

The above is only three years worth of data comparison, so I make no conclusions about it Just thought it might be interesting to show what is so far.

Cheers,
Neil
07-13-2017 12:15 AM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Ratings CFP and NCAAT
Ratings sometimes, IMO, just don't make any sense.

Now granted -- and as been the subject of much debate on this board -- the dates and date circumstances of the CFP bowls did not remain consistent over the three years of the CFP.


But would think things would be much more consistent for the NCAACG. I especially see absolutely no reason why there would be such a swing between UNC and Villanova vs Gonzaga, in consecutive years. Really makes no sense ... but I'm sure someone here will have a good perspective on that which I'm not considering.
07-13-2017 09:53 AM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Ratings CFP and NCAAT
The NCAA Tournament gets great TV ratings and is worth about as much as the bowls (combined). The problem for basketball has been the regular season - football wins that hands down.
07-13-2017 12:06 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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RE: Ratings CFP and NCAAT
Hokie,

Any thoughts on why there was such a wide swing between 2016 and 2017 championship game viewership, when you had the same public school UNC vs a smaller private school with an elite bball team, in both games?

Maybe people were just way more into the 2017 tournament? Maybe the matchup with Gonzaga was deemed to be an underdog situation, but not so with Villanova?
07-13-2017 12:31 PM
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OrangeDude Offline
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RE: Ratings CFP and NCAAT
(07-13-2017 09:53 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Ratings sometimes, IMO, just don't make any sense.

Now granted -- and as been the subject of much debate on this board -- the dates and date circumstances of the CFP bowls did not remain consistent over the three years of the CFP.


But would think things would be much more consistent for the NCAACG. I especially see absolutely no reason why there would be such a swing between UNC and Villanova vs Gonzaga, in consecutive years. Really makes no sense ... but I'm sure someone here will have a good perspective on that which I'm not considering.

I don't get too hung up on rating shares per se, since that is related to how many total viewers were watching TV when the show or event was taking place. I provided them since they were there. To me total number of viewers is more important than rating share.

Most of the 2015-16 men's regular basketball season was way down from the three years prior and the year after. By mid-January, Kentucky and Duke were both barely in Top 25 and they wouldn't recover to Top 10 status. Meanwhile it took Michigan State until the third week in February to leapfrog ahead of both Maryland and Iowa.

Another thing besides Kentucky and Duke being down (by their standards) was that not a single Big Ten team made it to the Elite 8 and the ACC as a conference so dominated the tourney that year, that casual fans around the country probably paid no attention to Nova's excellence.

I actually think though that Nova winning the championship game helped spur more interest the next year. After 8 consecutive years of either a blue blood or UConn/Louisville winning the whole thing, to finally have a perceived "little guy" win it all made the Zags' (and to a lesser extent South Carolina's) run potentially more compelling to watch the following year.

But that is all just an educated guess on my part.

Cheers,
Neil
07-13-2017 12:33 PM
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OrangeDude Offline
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RE: Ratings CFP and NCAAT
(07-13-2017 12:06 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  The NCAA Tournament gets great TV ratings and is worth about as much as the bowls (combined). The problem for basketball has been the regular season - football wins that hands down.

Definitely true. But I don't necessarily consider it a "problem" (and I don't think you meant it quite literally) mainly because I tend to think of problems as something that can be solved. Not sure there is anything college basketball can do about this since I see it as simply the nature of the beast with so many games played both on the weekends and during the week.

I know, I myself, will watch more non-SU football games than I will non-SU basketball games although I consider myself a huge fan of both sports.

Cheers,
Neil
07-13-2017 12:44 PM
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RutgersGuy Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Ratings CFP and NCAAT
(07-13-2017 09:53 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Ratings sometimes, IMO, just don't make any sense.

Now granted -- and as been the subject of much debate on this board -- the dates and date circumstances of the CFP bowls did not remain consistent over the three years of the CFP.


But would think things would be much more consistent for the NCAACG. I especially see absolutely no reason why there would be such a swing between UNC and Villanova vs Gonzaga, in consecutive years. Really makes no sense ... but I'm sure someone here will have a good perspective on that which I'm not considering.

One was on CBS (Zags) while the other was on TBS (Nova). Thats the reason.
07-13-2017 12:45 PM
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OrangeDude Offline
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RE: Ratings CFP and NCAAT
(07-13-2017 12:45 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  
(07-13-2017 09:53 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Ratings sometimes, IMO, just don't make any sense.

Now granted -- and as been the subject of much debate on this board -- the dates and date circumstances of the CFP bowls did not remain consistent over the three years of the CFP.


But would think things would be much more consistent for the NCAACG. I especially see absolutely no reason why there would be such a swing between UNC and Villanova vs Gonzaga, in consecutive years. Really makes no sense ... but I'm sure someone here will have a good perspective on that which I'm not considering.

One was on CBS (Zags) while the other was on TBS (Nova). Thats the reason.

I considered that before my reply above, but the 2014-15 FF games were also on TBS/TNT/Tru-TV simulcast and one can see those games did great in comparison to the CBS Final Four games in 2016-17.

Cheers,
Neil
07-13-2017 12:58 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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RE: Ratings CFP and NCAAT
I don't think RutgersGuy's point can be dismissed, but the FF numbers as you say are interesting too.

Seems that, for some reason in 14-15, the combination of blue bloods Kentucky and Duke together with upstart Wisconsin sent the FF and CG game ratings through the roof. Maybe all of the Big Ten was rooting on Wisconsin, and combine that with blue blood fanbases tuning in?

Pure speculation on my part.
(This post was last modified: 07-13-2017 01:40 PM by MplsBison.)
07-13-2017 01:40 PM
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Wolfman Offline
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RE: Ratings CFP and NCAAT
Does the start of the NBA playoffs sometimes overlap the FF? The NBA 1st round isn't usually that good but sometimes you get a good, early round series.

I think location has something to do with it. I'd guess that east coast games draw better ratings.
07-13-2017 02:24 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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RE: Ratings CFP and NCAAT
I think we'd have to start by comparing these ratings to non-sporting events that were being televised simultaneously with the championship games. There could be other events that captured attention.
07-13-2017 02:30 PM
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XLance Offline
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RE: Ratings CFP and NCAAT
I looked at but didn't study the numbers, but at first glance I would suggest: that the Big Ten can deliver eyeballs, northwest (Oregon/Gonzaga) folks will watch playoffs, and for reasons that I cannot comprehend people will watch Duke basketball.
07-13-2017 02:36 PM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Ratings CFP and NCAAT
(07-13-2017 12:45 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  
(07-13-2017 09:53 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Ratings sometimes, IMO, just don't make any sense.

Now granted -- and as been the subject of much debate on this board -- the dates and date circumstances of the CFP bowls did not remain consistent over the three years of the CFP.


But would think things would be much more consistent for the NCAACG. I especially see absolutely no reason why there would be such a swing between UNC and Villanova vs Gonzaga, in consecutive years. Really makes no sense ... but I'm sure someone here will have a good perspective on that which I'm not considering.

One was on CBS (Zags) while the other was on TBS (Nova). Thats the reason.

That could easily account for a difference of 6 million viewers. It's broadcast vs. cable, free vs. pay tv.
07-13-2017 09:19 PM
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OrangeDude Offline
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RE: Ratings CFP and NCAAT
Overall NCAAT viewer averages in millions (for all games televised):

2010 - 9.5M
2011 - 10.2M
2012 - 9.6M
2013 -10.7M
2014 - 10.5M
2015 - 11.3M
2016 - 9.4M
2017 - 10.8M

It will be interesting to see what the 2018 numbers will be, since that will be the second time TBS will televise the NC game.

Cheers,
Neil
07-14-2017 06:16 AM
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MplsBison Offline
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RE: Ratings CFP and NCAAT
(07-13-2017 09:19 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  That could easily account for a difference of 6 million viewers. It's broadcast vs. cable, free vs. pay tv.

Right ... I would think so too .... but that 2014-15 Final Four game between Wisconsin and Kentucky, tho ...

Thinking it had to be Big Ten fanboys boosting it up.
(This post was last modified: 07-14-2017 09:06 AM by MplsBison.)
07-14-2017 09:04 AM
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OrangeDude Offline
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RE: Ratings CFP and NCAAT
(07-14-2017 09:04 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  
(07-13-2017 09:19 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  That could easily account for a difference of 6 million viewers. It's broadcast vs. cable, free vs. pay tv.

Right ... I would think so too .... but that 2014-15 Final Four game between Wisconsin and Kentucky, tho ...

Thinking it had to be Big Ten fanboys boosting it up.

Perhaps, but I am thinking it was more likely the casual fans had a high interest in that game since Kentucky was undefeated for the season, and the Wildcat haters who watched hoping that they would lose.

Cheers,
Neil
07-14-2017 09:12 AM
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MplsBison Offline
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RE: Ratings CFP and NCAAT
Yes could well be true.

Though I'm just realizing (stupidly...) that the other FF in 2014-15 was Michigan St (Big Ten) and Duke ... pretty sure Duke is also a well hated program. Where were the Big Ten fanboys and the Duke haters on that game?


I'm reverting 100% to my "ratings are a completely fickle mistress" mindset.
07-14-2017 09:40 AM
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OrangeDude Offline
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RE: Ratings CFP and NCAAT
(07-14-2017 09:40 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Yes could well be true.

Though I'm just realizing (stupidly...) that the other FF in 2014-15 was Michigan St (Big Ten) and Duke ... pretty sure Duke is also a well hated program. Where were the Big Ten fanboys and the Duke haters on that game?


I'm reverting 100% to my "ratings are a completely fickle mistress" mindset.

Perhaps it is fickle. I don't know the definitive answer to that question. I am willing to concede that time (when something airs) and circumstances (network shown on, what else is it up against) are factors that might make it seem fickle.

There is historical evidence that suggests the FF Late Window draws more viewers than the Early Window. Which then of course usually means the expected "better match-up" (of the four programs involved for that particular year) is given the Late Window.

So let's see if the first assumption (the perceived better match-up for that particular year gets the Late Window time slot) is mostly true. For the past ten Final Fours (Late Window match-up is listed first, while the winner of each game is listed first, not necessarily the perceived better brand of that particular match-up):

North Carolina - Oregon
Gonzaga - South Carolina

North Carolina - Syracuse
Villanova - Oklahoma

Wisconsin - Kentucky
Duke - Michigan State

Kentucky - Wisconsin
Connecticut - Florida

Michigan - Syracuse
Louisville - Wichita State

Kansas - Ohio State
Kentucky - Louisville

Connecticut - Kentucky
Butler - VCU

Duke - West Virginia
Butler - Michigan State

North Carolina - Villanova
Michigan State - Connecticut

Kansas - North Carolina
Memphis - UCLA

In 7 out of the 10 years, I believe what would be perceived to be the hands down better match-up got the Late Window. The three years that could be questioned were 2015, 2012, and 2009.

As previously mentioned 2015 featured an undefeated Kentucky team. And while Duke and Michigan State are both much better brand names than Wisconsin, Wisconsin was the #3 ranked team in the nation that year going into the tourney and won both the Big Ten regular season and tournament, while the Spartans were barely in the Top 25 and got there by a strong Big Ten tournament falling short to the Badgers in OT in the championship game.

In 2012 both Final Four games (Kansas/OSU and UK/L'Ville) featured match-ups that had also taken place during the regular season. And while there wasn't much historical evidence to say either match-up has the clear advantage over the other, the fact that KU/OSU was a Top 10 match-up that year whereas Louisville was only ranked #19 is most likely why the Jayhawks and Buckeyes got the Late Window.

I think 2009 is the only one over the past 10 seasons that there can be a legitimate case for either match-up to be given the Late Window.

With the exercise above, I think we now have a clear idea of why match-ups either get assigned the Early FF Window or the Late FF Window. Looking at the results over the past 10 years by each Window:

Late Window:

2015 - Wisconsin/Kentucky - TBS - 22.6M viewers
2017 - North Carolina/Oregon - CBS - 18.8M viewers
2013 - Michigan/Syracuse - CBS - 17.1M viewers
2011 - Connecticut/Kentucky - CBS - 16.7M viewers
2012 - Kansas/Ohio State - CBS - 16.6M viewers
2014 - Kentucky/Wisconsin - TBS - 16.2M viewers
2010 - Duke/West Virginia - CBS - 15.8M viewers
2009 - North Carolina/Villanova - CBS -14.5M viewers
2008 - Kansas/North Carolina - CBS - 14.4M viewers
2016 - North Carolina/Syracuse - TBS - 12.9M viewers

Early Window:

2015 - Duke/Michigan State - TBS - 15.3M viewers
2017 - Gonzaga/South Carolina - CBS - 14.7M viewers
2013 - Louisville/Wichita State - CBS - 14.5M viewers
2010 - Butler/Michigan State - CBS - 14.5M viewers
2011 - Butler/VCU - CBS - 14.2M viewers
2012 - Kentucky/Louisville - CBS - 13.9M viewers
2009 - Michigan State/Connecticut - CBS - 12.6M viewers
2008 - Memphis/UCLA - CBS - 11.8M viewers
2014 - Connecticut/Florida - TBS - 11.7M viewers
2016 - Villanova/Oklahoma - TBS - 10.5M viewers

As presented above, the anomalies appear to me to be the highlighted games.

The 2015 Wisconsin/Kentucky match-up not only received the most number of viewers for a Final Four game by a wide margin, it received more viewers than 5 other championship games during that 10 year period. Overall, the data I have says it would place 9th in a list of most viewers for an NCAAT game this century, meaning it outpaces 9 of 17 championship games since (and including) the 2000 tournament.

I consider the 2014 Connecticut/Florida game an anomaly, since the data I have consistently shows the 2016, 2008, and 2009 tournaments the lowest for average viewership overall and by particular rounds as well - Sweet 16, Elite 8, FF, and NC (although the by round part mixes the order of those three years up, dependent on the round). Even though the game was on TBS, it's 2014 counterpart placed a solid 6th place in the Late Window, and the year overall ranks 4th out of 10 in terms of overall average viewership.

As for the latter two perceived anomalies, as others have mentioned these are in question since they were on the Turner networks and they both finished last. The counterpoint to this is that both Final Fours in 2015 on TBS were the highest viewed games in their respective windows. But I will concede that more future FF games on TBS will need to be included to see if 2015 itself was the anomaly when it comes to TBS games.

Hope this all makes sense, whether you agree or disagree.

Cheers,
Neil
(This post was last modified: 07-16-2017 04:54 PM by OrangeDude.)
07-16-2017 04:52 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #19
RE: Ratings CFP and NCAAT
Awesome post!! I would give you more than +3, if that were allowed!!


Dang ... that 2015 game just makes no sense, when you look at it relative to these statistics. And it was on TBS to boot. Almost makes you wonder if someone was cooking the books, to make it look like having games on TBS wouldn't be a huge drag ....

Or maybe people in Wisconsin alumni just have so little going on in their lives, that they all turn on the TV when the Badgers do something worth watching. But these numbers are supposed to come from a nationwide sampling, so it should be tough for such a system to catch such a high tune-in from a single, relatively lowish population state, all tuning in. Anyway ...
07-17-2017 09:09 AM
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