(07-14-2017 09:40 AM)MplsBison Wrote: Yes could well be true.
Though I'm just realizing (stupidly...) that the other FF in 2014-15 was Michigan St (Big Ten) and Duke ... pretty sure Duke is also a well hated program. Where were the Big Ten fanboys and the Duke haters on that game?
I'm reverting 100% to my "ratings are a completely fickle mistress" mindset.
Perhaps it is fickle. I don't know the definitive answer to that question. I am willing to concede that time (when something airs) and circumstances (network shown on, what else is it up against) are factors that might make it seem fickle.
There is historical evidence that suggests the FF Late Window draws more viewers than the Early Window. Which then of course usually means the expected "better match-up" (of the four programs involved for that particular year) is given the Late Window.
So let's see if the first assumption (the perceived better match-up for that particular year gets the Late Window time slot) is mostly true. For the past ten Final Fours (Late Window match-up is listed first, while the winner of each game is listed first, not necessarily the perceived better brand of that particular match-up):
North Carolina - Oregon
Gonzaga - South Carolina
North Carolina - Syracuse
Villanova - Oklahoma
Wisconsin - Kentucky
Duke - Michigan State
Kentucky - Wisconsin
Connecticut - Florida
Michigan - Syracuse
Louisville - Wichita State
Kansas - Ohio State
Kentucky - Louisville
Connecticut - Kentucky
Butler - VCU
Duke - West Virginia
Butler - Michigan State
North Carolina - Villanova
Michigan State - Connecticut
Kansas - North Carolina
Memphis - UCLA
In 7 out of the 10 years, I believe what would be perceived to be the hands down better match-up got the Late Window. The three years that could be questioned were 2015, 2012, and 2009.
As previously mentioned 2015 featured an undefeated Kentucky team. And while Duke and Michigan State are both much better brand names than Wisconsin, Wisconsin was the #3 ranked team in the nation that year going into the tourney and won both the Big Ten regular season and tournament, while the Spartans were barely in the Top 25 and got there by a strong Big Ten tournament falling short to the Badgers in OT in the championship game.
In 2012 both Final Four games (Kansas/OSU and UK/L'Ville) featured match-ups that had also taken place during the regular season. And while there wasn't much historical evidence to say either match-up has the clear advantage over the other, the fact that KU/OSU was a Top 10 match-up that year whereas Louisville was only ranked #19 is most likely why the Jayhawks and Buckeyes got the Late Window.
I think 2009 is the only one over the past 10 seasons that there can be a legitimate case for either match-up to be given the Late Window.
With the exercise above, I think we now have a clear idea of why match-ups either get assigned the Early FF Window or the Late FF Window. Looking at the results over the past 10 years by each Window:
Late Window:
2015 - Wisconsin/Kentucky - TBS - 22.6M viewers
2017 - North Carolina/Oregon - CBS - 18.8M viewers
2013 - Michigan/Syracuse - CBS - 17.1M viewers
2011 - Connecticut/Kentucky - CBS - 16.7M viewers
2012 - Kansas/Ohio State - CBS - 16.6M viewers
2014 - Kentucky/Wisconsin -
TBS - 16.2M viewers
2010 - Duke/West Virginia - CBS - 15.8M viewers
2009 - North Carolina/Villanova - CBS -14.5M viewers
2008 - Kansas/North Carolina - CBS - 14.4M viewers
2016 - North Carolina/Syracuse - TBS - 12.9M viewers
Early Window:
2015 - Duke/Michigan State -
TBS - 15.3M viewers
2017 - Gonzaga/South Carolina - CBS - 14.7M viewers
2013 - Louisville/Wichita State - CBS - 14.5M viewers
2010 - Butler/Michigan State - CBS - 14.5M viewers
2011 - Butler/VCU - CBS - 14.2M viewers
2012 - Kentucky/Louisville - CBS - 13.9M viewers
2009 - Michigan State/Connecticut - CBS - 12.6M viewers
2008 - Memphis/UCLA - CBS - 11.8M viewers
2014 - Connecticut/Florida - TBS - 11.7M viewers
2016 - Villanova/Oklahoma - TBS - 10.5M viewers
As presented above, the anomalies appear to me to be the highlighted games.
The 2015 Wisconsin/Kentucky match-up not only received the most number of viewers for a Final Four game by a wide margin, it received more viewers than 5 other championship games during that 10 year period. Overall, the data I have says it would place 9th in a list of most viewers for an NCAAT game this century, meaning it outpaces 9 of 17 championship games since (and including) the 2000 tournament.
I consider the 2014 Connecticut/Florida game an anomaly, since the data I have consistently shows the 2016, 2008, and 2009 tournaments the lowest for average viewership overall and by particular rounds as well - Sweet 16, Elite 8, FF, and NC (although the by round part mixes the order of those three years up, dependent on the round). Even though the game was on TBS, it's 2014 counterpart placed a solid 6th place in the Late Window, and the year overall ranks 4th out of 10 in terms of overall average viewership.
As for the latter two perceived anomalies, as others have mentioned these are in question since they were on the Turner networks and they both finished last. The counterpoint to this is that both Final Fours in 2015 on TBS were the highest viewed games in their respective windows. But I will concede that more future FF games on TBS will need to be included to see if 2015 itself was the anomaly when it comes to TBS games.
Hope this all makes sense, whether you agree or disagree.
Cheers,
Neil