why I would pump the brakes on Sale....

April- 1-2 1.19 ERA .177/.217/.215 slash line .433 OPS. 6/52 bb/k ratio. .282 babip 1.18 FIP
May- 4-0 3.57 ERA .177/.228/.339 slash line .567 OPS. 8/49 bb/k ratio. .243 babip 2.50 FIP

so a FIP over double what he had in April, and ERA triple.

next starts- @ White Sox(that'll be fun), @ Orioles, Detroit, @ Philly, @ KC, Angels, @ Toronto, @ Texas. Then All star break. 1 thing- his final start from looks of things would be on July 5, a Wednesday. So only 8 starts before break- 18 total......

Keuchel has 9 starts so far. it looks like the Astros may be able to get him 9 starts before the break. Which would mean that even though Keuchel was on the DL, they would have the same number of starts at the break.

(05-24-2017 08:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Sale with a pretty meh game tonight. 3 earned runs 4 runs in 7.1 innings. Only 6 k's. ERA now for May up to 3.57. Overall ERA up to 2.34. He'll pick up the win though to go to 5-2.

i feel like the win is better for his Cy Young case

Trout's fWAR is up to 3.4, in 49 team games (he's played 43). He's got 15 HR, 9 SB (caught once) and a 222 wRC+. Such an amazing player, and on such a bad team. And yet they're 25-24, which says all you need to know about his MVP case. He's already been robbed twice

In one game Anthony Rendon had 10 RBI. So far in one season Posey has 11. That's baseball for ya

(05-25-2017 09:47 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Trout's fWAR is up to 3.4, in 49 team games (he's played 43). He's got 15 HR, 9 SB (caught once) and a 222 wRC+. Such an amazing player, and on such a bad team. And yet they're 25-24, which says all you need to know about his MVP case. He's already been robbed twice

Has there ever been a player of his stature with less notice? I live in Orange County - the guy is barely discussed here.

(05-25-2017 09:43 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(05-24-2017 08:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Sale with a pretty meh game tonight. 3 earned runs 4 runs in 7.1 innings. Only 6 k's. ERA now for May up to 3.57. Overall ERA up to 2.34. He'll pick up the win though to go to 5-2.

i feel like the win is better for his Cy Young case

wins are big, but if his ERA is up around 3, it won't matter if Keuchel has an era of 2.50 or lower.

We'll see how Keuchel does on Saturday.

(05-25-2017 09:51 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  In one game Anthony Rendon had 10 RBI. So far in one season Posey has 11. That's baseball for ya

Posey getting pitched around a lot with guys on base with the lineup that the Giants have....

Posey-
with RISP- 33 PA's/7 walks- so walked 21.2% of the time
bases empty- 89 pa's/7 walks- so walked only 7.8% of the time

looking for a comparison....
Harper-
with RISP- 52 PA's/11 walks- so walked 21.1% of the time.
bases empty- 94 PA's/16 walks- so walked 17.0%

(05-25-2017 11:00 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(05-25-2017 09:43 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(05-24-2017 08:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Sale with a pretty meh game tonight. 3 earned runs 4 runs in 7.1 innings. Only 6 k's. ERA now for May up to 3.57. Overall ERA up to 2.34. He'll pick up the win though to go to 5-2.

i feel like the win is better for his Cy Young case

wins are big, but if his ERA is up around 3, it won't matter if Keuchel has an era of 2.50 or lower.

We'll see how Keuchel does on Saturday.

you think an ERA of like 2.90 compared to 2.50 for Keuchel, will not be enough for Sale? Man, that's putting a lot of faith in that one stat as the decider. Maybe you're right...

(05-25-2017 11:07 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(05-25-2017 09:51 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  In one game Anthony Rendon had 10 RBI. So far in one season Posey has 11. That's baseball for ya

Posey getting pitched around a lot with guys on base with the lineup that the Giants have....

Posey-
with RISP- 33 PA's/7 walks- so walked 21.2% of the time
bases empty- 89 pa's/7 walks- so walked only 7.8% of the time

looking for a comparison....
Harper-
with RISP- 52 PA's/11 walks- so walked 21.1% of the time.
bases empty- 94 PA's/16 walks- so walked 17.0%

are you saying our lineup isn't good?

Bartolo Colon rocked again vs Pirates- 5 runs in 2.2 innings so far...

for May now- he's given up 21 er in 21.2 innings. or a grisly 8.72 ERA.

You have got to wonder how much longer he's got.

(05-25-2017 11:59 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Bartolo Colon rocked again vs Pirates- 5 runs in 2.2 innings so far...

for May now- he's given up 21 er in 21.2 innings. or a grisly 8.72 ERA.

You have got to wonder how much longer he's got.

My guess is, not much

So was Roark lucky last season, or has he been unlucky this season? His K and BB rates are the same as last year, his HR rate is up, but not by a ton. The big difference is his BABIP is up to a more normal .298 and his strand rate is at an unlucky 66.6%. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this is one guy for whom FIP is probably spot on. Last year his ERA/FIP/xFIP was 2.83/3.79/4.17 and this year it's 4.32/3.84/4.03. I'd say it's unlikely that he's truly a 2.83 ERA guy

(05-25-2017 11:57 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(05-25-2017 11:00 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(05-25-2017 09:43 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(05-24-2017 08:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Sale with a pretty meh game tonight. 3 earned runs 4 runs in 7.1 innings. Only 6 k's. ERA now for May up to 3.57. Overall ERA up to 2.34. He'll pick up the win though to go to 5-2.

i feel like the win is better for his Cy Young case

wins are big, but if his ERA is up around 3, it won't matter if Keuchel has an era of 2.50 or lower.

We'll see how Keuchel does on Saturday.

you think an ERA of like 2.90 compared to 2.50 for Keuchel, will not be enough for Sale? Man, that's putting a lot of faith in that one stat as the decider. Maybe you're right...

the voters have shown some tendency to do just that though. I mean, just a few years ago, Kershaw was only 0.36 behind Arrieta.

I think Sale would have to have a chance with the 2.90 to 2.50 be really close in # of wins vs Keuchel.

(05-25-2017 11:59 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Bartolo Colon rocked again vs Pirates- 5 runs in 2.2 innings so far...

for May now- he's given up 21 er in 21.2 innings. or a grisly 8.72 ERA.

You have got to wonder how much longer he's got.

Bronson Arroyo still has a job: 3-4, 6.75 ERA. There's a lot of crap out there...

But going back to the Twins pitching for a moment, have you guys seen what Berrios is doing? He had a pretty lousy debut last year (8.02 ERA) but I guess a lot of that was lack of command with his curve. Seems like he's (mostly) figured that out. 21.2 IP, ERA 1.66. That's a small sample size of innings, but check this thing out...




That is an absolutely nasty pitch. If he can keep up that combination of break and ability to locate? He's gonna be trouble.

Big 4-games series starts tonight between the Brewers (1st NL Central) and Dbacks (1st in NL Wild Card, 2nd NL West) in Milwaukee.

(05-25-2017 06:49 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Big 4-games series starts tonight between the Brewers (1st NL Central) and Dbacks (1st in NL Wild Card, 2nd NL West) in Milwaukee.

it's funny. we talk a lot about how it's a tough stretch for Arizona- but this is a huge 4 game series for Milwaukee. Just finished 2 with the Cubs(was supposed to be 3 but a rain now) and 2 with Toronto- but then 4 with Arizona, then 4 @ Mets, 3 Dodgers, 4 Giants, and 4 @ St Louis. So really a huge 4 week stretch for the Brewers- and they are only 1-3 so far and losing again tonight. Tomorrow would be a HUGE game for Milwaukee, given Arizona starter on Saturday is Greinke.

(05-25-2017 08:57 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(05-25-2017 06:49 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Big 4-games series starts tonight between the Brewers (1st NL Central) and Dbacks (1st in NL Wild Card, 2nd NL West) in Milwaukee.

it's funny. we talk a lot about how it's a tough stretch for Arizona- but this is a huge 4 game series for Milwaukee. Just finished 2 with the Cubs(was supposed to be 3 but a rain now) and 2 with Toronto- but then 4 with Arizona, then 4 @ Mets, 3 Dodgers, 4 Giants, and 4 @ St Louis. So really a huge 4 week stretch for the Brewers- and they are only 1-3 so far and losing again tonight. Tomorrow would be a HUGE game for Milwaukee, given Arizona starter on Saturday is Greinke.

Yeah - if Milwaukee does poorly in the next month, it will be hard to recover, given the Cards and Cubs are both playing better.

And Braun is on the DL now for Milwaukee. They're in deep trouble.

Arizona has done here what good teams do- beat up on bad teams. 12-4 last 16 games- playing Detroit, Pittsburgh, Mets, San Diego, White Sox, and then last night vs Brewers. Best record in MLB in that period. Only 52 runs given up in those 16 games- also best in MLB. Arizona really looks like they're in it for the long haul.

Interesting article on ESPN about Greinke...
http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/...-dominance

Interesting theory about how changing catchers has made such a difference.