State in trouble in game 3 at UGA. Already lost game 2.

Actually hope they host because they'd be our 2 seed in a hypothetical Hattiesburg Regional, which would suck for a number of reasons.

1) They'd probably beat us.
2) We'd hear non-stop all week about we have 10 fans or whatever from their suburban Jackson, white trash fanbase.
3) They'd take over PTP and then ***** about how we didn't give them 99% of the ticket allotment (like they did when they went to Lafayette in 2014)
4) Their alums are in general just a bunch of goobers that think they invented college baseball (yet they've never won a national title).

Give me Auburn or even OM. Hosting State would ruin the experience.

(05-14-2017 02:04 PM)BeagleUSM Wrote:  State in trouble in game 3 at UGA. Already lost game 2.

Actually hope they host because they'd be our 2 seed in a hypothetical Hattiesburg Regional, which would suck for a number of reasons.

1) They'd probably beat us.
2) We'd hear non-stop all week about we have 10 fans or whatever from their suburban Jackson, white trash fanbase.
3) They'd take over PTP and then ***** about how we didn't give them 99% of the ticket allotment (like they did when they went to Lafayette in 2014)
4) Their alums are in general just a bunch of goobers that think they invented college baseball (yet they've never won a national title).

Give me Auburn or even OM. Hosting State would ruin the experience.

Add on to #3 with the Lafayette comparison: Their local yokel writers would write articles about what a horrible experience our regional was for them.

As I said a while back, I think this is a team that will limp into the postseason because their pitching depth issues. It was a matter of time before it came back to get them. If I were a 2 seed, I wouldn't mind being in their regional at all.

That said, I wouldn't want them in my regional if I were a #1. They are vulnerable by #1 seed standards. They tough out by #2 seed standards.

State hate aside, which is legit, I think it is far from a sure thing that they would be sent here.

Based on history, I refuse to talk about a hypothetical Hattiesburg regional until I believe it is a done deal.

"If I'm USM or the CUSA powers that be, I'm doing everything I can to make sure State isn't in my regional"

(05-14-2017 02:48 PM)BeagleUSM Wrote:  "If I'm USM or the CUSA powers that be, I'm doing everything I can to make sure State isn't in my regional"

If they can connect with the engineers in Flowood, they would pretty much draw out the entire bracket.

IF we are lucky enough to get a regional (and not screw the pooch at UTSA, which IS a possibility), I don't give a **** who we play, what time we play, or how many fans the other team DOES or DOES NOT bring----->Just kick some assss...

It really doesn't make since to send State to Hattiesburg. We already draw good. It makes more since for them to go somewhere that doesn't draw.

(05-14-2017 04:07 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  It really doesn't make since to send State to Hattiesburg. We already draw good. It makes more since for them to go somewhere that doesn't draw.

...you make no since....just damm.

5/14 host watch. Just my guess...

Locks or close to locks

Oregon State
UNC
Louisville
Texas Tech
Florida
TCU
Kentucky
Clemson
Wake Forest
Stanford
Virginia
LSU

Bubble - 9 teams for 4 spots

Baylor
Arizona
Southern Miss
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Whoever wins the AAC (especially if it's Houston or USF)
West Virginia
Long Beach State
Mississippi State

Not only are we a lock to host, we are getting into national seed territory with the way we are playing.

(05-14-2017 05:59 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Not only are we a lock to host, we are getting into national seed territory with the way we are playing.

Eh....

Would have to win out which would put us at 48-12. RPI would be at 12-13, which probably isn't good enough. Might be in the discussion but it'd be a long shot. For a non-power conference team to get a national seed, you basically have to win every series and finish with a top 10 RPI (see ULL 2014, Missouri State 2015).

Wouldn't say we're a lock to host, but we're in a good position. Go 3-1 this week and I like our chances.

(05-14-2017 05:59 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Not only are we a lock to host, we are getting into national seed territory with the way we are playing.

the way we are playing, we are a lock. but lose 4 in a row and we wont host anything. we could get away with 2/2 this week and prob host if we win 2-3 in the cusa tournament. we really need no worse than 3/1 this week to solidify our hosting and a good ranking going into the conference tourney.

ive been holding off on saying this, but since you brought it up.....i think if we win out and win the CUSA tourney, then we are in the conversation of a national seed. depends a lot on what others do ahead of us. but 48-12 with 18 game win streak would do that. the sela game could turn out to be huge. win that game and im gonna be stoked about this UTSA series, bc a LOT could be riding on it.

(05-14-2017 06:08 PM)Reggie Favre Wrote:  

(05-14-2017 05:59 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Not only are we a lock to host, we are getting into national seed territory with the way we are playing.

the way we are playing, we are a lock. but lose 4 in a row and we wont host anything. we could get away with 2/2 this week and prob host if we win 2-3 in the cusa tournament. we really need no worse than 3/1 this week to solidify our hosting and a good ranking going into the conference tourney.

ive been holding off on saying this, but since you brought it up.....i think if we win out and win the CUSA tourney, then we are in the conversation of a national seed. depends a lot on what others do ahead of us. but 48-12 with 18 game win streak would do that. the sela game could turn out to be huge. win that game and im gonna be stoked about this UTSA series, bc a LOT could be riding on it.

This. That's why I said "the way we are playing". That scenario is very possible. Tuesday is big. They will be coming for bear.

(05-14-2017 06:04 PM)BeagleUSM Wrote:  

(05-14-2017 05:59 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Not only are we a lock to host, we are getting into national seed territory with the way we are playing.

Eh....

Would have to win out which would put us at 48-12. RPI would be at 12-13, which probably isn't good enough. Might be in the discussion but it'd be a long shot. For a non-power conference team to get a national seed, you basically have to win every series and finish with a top 10 RPI (see ULL 2014, Missouri State 2015).

Wouldn't say we're a lock to host, but we're in a good position. Go 3-1 this week and I like our chances.

Beagle, how do think Berry will coach the next 4 games? Play to rest players giving
Others playing time or stick with regular routine? I could see both ends of the argument

I have no idea. Hosting isn't guaranteed yet, so I'd figured he'd stick with what we've been doing.

Beat SELA and take the first 2 at UTSA, and I might save Braley for the opener in Biloxi.

(05-14-2017 05:59 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Not only are we a lock to host, we are getting into national seed territory with the way we are playing.

We are absolutely not a lock.

Yes, if we keep playing like this (e.g. not losing), we will definitely host. But that's kind of difficult.

If what you meant was that we control our own destiny, I would agree.

Borrowed/stolen from Beagle's post above:

5/14 host watch. Just my guess...

Bubble - 12 teams for 4 spots

(13) Baylor - @UTSA (92), Kansas St (98) x3
(15) Arizona - @Arizona St (88) x3, Cal (79) x3 -- no conf tourney in PAC 12
(16) Southern Miss - vs SE LA (27), @UTSA (92) x3
(17) Oklahoma - vs Oklahoma St (66) x3 -- all 3 games played at neutral site
(18) Arkansas - @Texas A&M (35) x3
(19) USF - @Jacksonville (80), @UCF (25) x3
(25) UCF - @FAU (72), USF (19) x3
(26) Houston (26) - @McNeese St (37), Cincinnati (82) x3
(23) Texas - Incarnate Word (273), WVU (20) x3
(20) West Virginia - Pittsburgh (134), @Texas (23) x3
(22) Long Beach State - Hawaii (136) x3, @Cal St Fullerton (42) x3, no conf tourney
(24) Mississippi State - Troy (111), LSU (12) x3

Thanks.

IMO, Texas has to sweep WVU to have a shot. No team has ever hosted with a losing or .500 record in conference (currently 9-11 in Big 12 play). Don't even think I had them on the bubble. WVU needs to take 2/3 to remain in the mix.

State probably has to beat LSU 2/3 to stay in the conversation. It's in Starkville so they may have a shot.

If USF takes 2/3 at UCF, they'll have a legit case because they'd probably have at least a share of the AAC title and a top 20 RPI/solid top 50 record. Houston has a solid T50/T100 record, but they need to get their RPI in the top 20 and they're not gonna get a huge boost playing Cincy at home. UCF is 5-9 vs top 50, which is not host material.

Think either Oklahoma or Baylor gets in. What was holding Baylor back was their Big 12 record but they are over .500 now and they have a good RPI and top 50/100 record.

The Beach's final series with Fullerton may determine whether or not they host.

Arkansas will host if they take 2/3 at TAMU, and might even if they don't.

Zona has a good RPI, but is 12-12 in PAC12 play and is 5-9 vs top 50. Remaining schedule won't give them much of a boost.

(05-14-2017 09:51 PM)BeagleUSM Wrote:  Thanks.

IMO, Texas has to sweep WVU to have a shot. No team has ever hosted with a losing or .500 record in conference (currently 9-11 in Big 12 play). Don't even think I had them on the bubble. WVU needs to take 2/3 to remain in the mix.

State probably has to beat LSU 2/3 to stay in the conversation. It's in Starkville so they may have a shot.

If USF takes 2/3 at UCF, they'll have a legit case because they'd probably have at least a share of the AAC title and a top 20 RPI/solid top 50 record. Houston has a solid T50/T100 record, but they need to get their RPI in the top 20 and they're not gonna get a huge boost playing Cincy at home. UCF is 5-9 vs top 50, which is not host material.

Think either Oklahoma or Baylor gets in. What was holding Baylor back was their Big 12 record but they are over .500 now and they have a good RPI and top 50/100 record.

The Beach's final series with Fullerton may determine whether or not they host.

Arkansas will host if they take 2/3 at TAMU, and might even if they don't.

Zona has a good RPI, but is 12-12 in PAC12 play and is 5-9 vs top 50. Remaining schedule won't give them much of a boost.

I was curious about previous years and how RPI lined up with the 16 hosts.

2016:
National seeds: 1-4 were exactly as the RPI went.
#5 Texas Tech was #14 in RPI (TT had a really good record against the Top 50 at 13-5)
#6 MSU was #11 in the RPI (I didn't understand that one.)
#7 Clemson was #6
#8 LSU was #7

Other hosts: FSU (13), NCSU (10), TCU (16), UVA (17), Ole Miss (5), ULL (15), Vandy (9), South Carolina (8)

So....last year, it was straight up the top 16 teams in the RPI selected to host with the exception of UVA (at 17) over Coastal (12). And with Coastal, you were looking at a team that was 7-8 against the Top 50 (UVA was 9-6) and just 13-11 against the Top 100 (UVA was 21-11).

2015:
#1 UCLA - #4 RPI
#2 LSU - #5
#3 Louisville - #12
#4 Florida - #3
#5 Miami - #1
#6 Illinois - #13
#7 TCU - #8
#8 Missouri State - #7

The other hosts: UCSB (20), Ok State (11), FSU (11), Dallas Baptist (#2), Houston (14), A&M (6), Fullerton (25), Vandy (10)

More of the same but two exceptions: UCSB and Fullerton. Those were easy to explain because the RPI was weird in 2015 and none of the teams ahead of them were legit contenders to host Ahead of them, we had Radford at 15, Coll. of Charleston at 16 (bad top 100), FAU (bad year for C-USA and bad Top 100 record), Bradley (.500 in conference), Auburn (was a #3 seed), USC (bad top 50/100), UVA (sub-.500 in conference, bad Top 100).


So....while the order may vary, you can usually go right down the RPI these last two years unless there's a serious black eye on someone's resume. For example:

-Pretty much everyone finishes well above .500 in conference (exception NCSU last year--16-15 but in the #1 conference and 20 wins over Top 50 teams and #10 in RPI). Arizona is an example of a team that would probably suffer because of conference record. Baylor presents a possible exception in they are in such a good conference and have 13 Top 50 wins and 22 Top 100.

-Poor Top 50/100 records: Missouri State. Another strike against Zona. So, I would be pretty confident neither of those two will host at this point.

If you look behind us, State, because of the Top 50 wins, definitely is one team that could jump us for a host spot. Arkansas, maybe. Oklahoma, maybe but more doubtful. Other than those three, I wouldn't be particularly concerned about anyone else if the season were over today. Maybe LBSU for geography but I don't think there will be a ton of West Coast teams in the tourney this year.

All in all, if we stay in the Top 16, I feel extremely good about our chances.

Missouri State cannot host. Springfield Cardinals in town the week of regionals. MoState does not have a stadium on campus.

After the dust has settled, RPI is sitting at #16 and still 8-6 vs T50 RPI. FAU has surely played like sh!t since we swept them...they managed to squeak out one win vs #239 WKU. Their RPI is now 72. They do have UCF (24) tomorrow...maybe they can win that and improve their RPI. Rice is still outside the T50 at 60. Only way they are going to sniff T50 is if they can get a few wins against LT/ODU in the tournament.

Well, CUSA isn't getting any respect right now in the BA boll. We were ranked #20 two weeks ago...since then we've gone 10-0...and we're only ranked #18 today.

We're #15 in D1. Keep on winning!