CSNbbs

The 2018 election season begins today with the first primary in the nation. There shouldn't be any major upsets today although in Texas that could come in November. The main story today should be voter turnout which has been at record numbers in the early voter period.

The votes are in, and LION Ted gets 300,000 more votes than all 3 democrats combined, and more than twice as much as beto.

muh blue wave

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/result...y-election

(03-07-2018 11:53 AM)Kronke Wrote: [ -> ]The votes are in, and LION Ted gets 300,000 more votes than all 3 democrats combined, and more than twice as much as beto.

muh blue wave

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/result...y-election

thats what I was thinking this morning when I was looking at the results. The blue wave couldnt even rock a paper boat. All of the major networks were clamoring at the fact that the early turnout for democrats was up 115% and the republicans only 15%.... fake news.

LOL. Dem Primary vote was up by 90%. GOP primary vote was up by 15%. In 2016, the GOP primary vote was double that of the Dems, and the GOP only won by single digits.

It can be really hard to judge a general election by a primary. Remember that turnout for primaries is usually way lower than for general elections. Also people vote in opposite parties primaries all the time (in my area, a lot of Democrats voted in the GOP primary so they could vote for Sarah Davis).

The key is the direction of the movement.

I think its pretty clear that TX-7, TX-23, and TX-32 are all still in deep trouble for the GOP. The GOP dodged a bullet in TX-2 when Kath-a-leen Wall lost in her risible attempt to buy a Congressional seat. Harris County is looking like a Dem sweep (Emmitt will keep his seat though - everyone else is probably toast). Fort Bend may flip too.

I did enjoy Rafael Cruz's first attack ad on Beto O'Rourke. Basically attacks Beto for having a nickname.

This race ain't over, but you're free to think it is.

Texas and a sitting senator. Anyone expecting anything different was an idiot.

(03-07-2018 12:13 PM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-07-2018 11:53 AM)Kronke Wrote: [ -> ]The votes are in, and LION Ted gets 300,000 more votes than all 3 democrats combined, and more than twice as much as beto.

muh blue wave

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/result...y-election

thats what I was thinking this morning when I was looking at the results. The blue wave couldnt even rock a paper boat. All of the major networks were clamoring at the fact that the early turnout for democrats was up 115% and the republicans only 15%.... fake news.

Actually, the final number was 90% for the Dems and about 10-15% for the Republicans over 2014. That's statewide.

I swear, if I bet a dollar every time Tom made a wrong prediction, I would be a millionaire by now.

(03-07-2018 12:13 PM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-07-2018 11:53 AM)Kronke Wrote: [ -> ]The votes are in, and LION Ted gets 300,000 more votes than all 3 democrats combined, and more than twice as much as beto.

muh blue wave

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/result...y-election

thats what I was thinking this morning when I was looking at the results. The blue wave couldnt even rock a paper boat. All of the major networks were clamoring at the fact that the early turnout for democrats was up 115% and the republicans only 15%.... fake news.

Oh, I don’t know. I think the percentages are probably correct, but going from 2 to 5 is a lot easier to bump that #, than going from 10,000 to 11,000. One increase is a lot bigger in %, lot smaller in real terms.

I heard 1.5 mm Rep votes, vs 1.0 mm dims. Not really even close. Not on the same block, not even in the same zip code.

Remember when Georgia was in play? I ‘member...

(03-07-2018 12:19 PM)Redwingtom Wrote: [ -> ]Texas and a sitting senator. Anyone expecting anything different was an idiot.

I think you might want to use some caution here on writing Beto completely off.

First of all, Republicans historically outperform in Primaries. Their base is a lot older.

The statewide turnout for a primary was R+20. It was R+35 in 2016 and R+50 in 2014. Remember that in much of the state, there really wasn't much of a Democratic primary, so a lot of those voters didn't show up. Why bother if there's nothing on the ballot other than some judicial race between two candidates that isn't going to win?

Sure Rafael "Ted" Cruz has the upper hand, but I don't you should be running away from this.

(03-07-2018 12:23 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-07-2018 12:19 PM)Redwingtom Wrote: [ -> ]Texas and a sitting senator. Anyone expecting anything different was an idiot.

I think you might want to use some caution here on writing Beto completely off.

First of all, Republicans historically outperform in Primaries. Their base is a lot older.

The statewide turnout for a primary was R+20. It was R+35 in 2016 and R+50 in 2014. Remember that in much of the state, there really wasn't much of a Democratic primary, so a lot of those voters didn't show up. Why bother if there's nothing on the ballot other than some judicial race between two candidates that isn't going to win?

Sure Rafael "Ted" Cruz has the upper hand, but I don't you should be running away from this.

No chance Cruz loses in November. N O N E!

EDIT: Well, unless he has a Franken moment come to life.

(03-07-2018 12:20 PM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote: [ -> ]I swear, if I bet a dollar every time Tom made a wrong prediction, I would be a millionaire by now.

That's not a prediction, that's the vote totals. You're free to go to the Texas SOS website and look up the Democratic and Republican primary turnout numbers for 2014, 2016, and 2018 and compare them.

Dems up by 90 percent. GOP up by about 10-15. That's versus 2014. Versus 2016, Dems went down by 26 percent and the GOP went down close to 40 percent.

Margin in primary voting in 2014: GOP 70-30. Margin 2016: GOP 63-37... Margin this year 60-40. There's always the risk of reading WAAAY too much into primary results.

Again, it could have better for the Dems, but doubling 2014 is still a good place to work from. We've got 8 months and in Texas, general elections are usually FAR more favorable to the Dems than primaries are.

(03-07-2018 12:26 PM)Redwingtom Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-07-2018 12:23 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-07-2018 12:19 PM)Redwingtom Wrote: [ -> ]Texas and a sitting senator. Anyone expecting anything different was an idiot.

I think you might want to use some caution here on writing Beto completely off.

First of all, Republicans historically outperform in Primaries. Their base is a lot older.

The statewide turnout for a primary was R+20. It was R+35 in 2016 and R+50 in 2014. Remember that in much of the state, there really wasn't much of a Democratic primary, so a lot of those voters didn't show up. Why bother if there's nothing on the ballot other than some judicial race between two candidates that isn't going to win?

Sure Rafael "Ted" Cruz has the upper hand, but I don't you should be running away from this.

No chance Cruz loses in November. N O N E!

EDIT: Well, unless he has a Franken moment come to life.

OK, you're free to right him off. I'm not and neither are the Texas Dems.

(03-07-2018 12:29 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-07-2018 12:20 PM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote: [ -> ]I swear, if I bet a dollar every time Tom made a wrong prediction, I would be a millionaire by now.

That's not a prediction, that's the vote totals. You're free to go to the Texas SOS website and look up the Democratic and Republican primary turnout numbers for 2014, 2016, and 2018 and compare them.

Dems up by 90 percent. GOP up by about 10-15. That's versus 2014. Versus 2016, Dems went down by 26 percent and the GOP went down close to 40 percent.

Margin in primary voting in 2014: GOP 70-30. Margin 2016: GOP 63-37... Margin this year 60-40.

Again, it could have better for the Dems, but doubling 2014 is still a good place to work from. We've got 8 months and in Texas, general elections are usually FAR more favorable to the Dems than primaries are.

you did not make any predictions on post #4?

(03-07-2018 12:33 PM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-07-2018 12:29 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: [ -> ][quote='UTSAMarineVet09' pid='15140657' dateline='1520443223']
I swear, if I bet a dollar every time Tom made a wrong prediction, I would be a millionaire by now.

That's not a prediction, that's the vote totals. You're free to go to the Texas SOS website and look up the Democratic and Republican primary turnout numbers for 2014, 2016, and 2018 and compare them.

Dems up by 90 percent. GOP up by about 10-15. That's versus 2014. Versus 2016, Dems went down by 26 percent and the GOP went down close to 40 percent.

Margin in primary voting in 2014: GOP 70-30. Margin 2016: GOP 63-37... Margin this year 60-40.

Again, it could have better for the Dems, but doubling 2014 is still a good place to work from. We've got 8 months and in Texas, general elections are usually FAR more favorable to the Dems than primaries are.

you did not make any predictions on post #4?
[/quote

I thought you were complaining about my post on turnout

LOL. I did. There will be exactly 1 Republican representing Harris County at large after this election. Every single other countywide official is going to lose. Every single judge (save Ed Emmitt - he's the one that will hold on to his seat) will lose. County Treasurer. County Clerk. Every single at large seat save County Judge.

CD-7 is probably flipping too. Especially when you realize that while pretty much everyone who is voting in the Dem primary will vote for whoever the Dem is and that the voters who voted against Culburtson in the Republican primary wont be supporting Culbertson - they're Democrats who voted in the GOP primary for Sarah Davis and voted against Culbertson while they were doing it. This whole DCCC vs Moser isn't really going anywhere either. She won't win and her supporters will still support Fletcher. And if she does win, everyone will support her as well. Remember, Republicans are supposed to outperform in primaries. Culbertson had a very bad night.

CD-23 is probably gone too. That district is just going to be a very hard retention in 2018. Its 75% minority. And Hurd had a hard time carrying it last time. Any movement to the Dems is fatal to him.

CD-32 is looking pretty good for a pickup at this point. Its a legit 50-50 district, but that's a real flip opportunity even now.

You guys did pull CD-2 off the table for now. Gosh, Kath-a-leen Wall would have been a gift from heaven for the Democrats.

Muh Blue Wave. All of the MSM was running with this lol.

(03-07-2018 12:13 PM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-07-2018 11:53 AM)Kronke Wrote: [ -> ]The votes are in, and LION Ted gets 300,000 more votes than all 3 democrats combined, and more than twice as much as beto.

muh blue wave

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/result...y-election

thats what I was thinking this morning when I was looking at the results. The blue wave couldnt even rock a paper boat. All of the major networks were clamoring at the fact that the early turnout for democrats was up 115% and the republicans only 15%.... fake news.

That's usually the case because many aren't the typical Republican and vote in either primary. I'm thinking many voted against Beto and others that they dislike but these Reps are in the minority. The primary is not a good indication of how the November voting will ensue, believe me.

As an independent who has voted for both parties you don't want Beto as your Senator he is incompetent and a very strong Progressive ala California mold.

MUH BLUE WAVE

The dems got schlonged again.

So, Strypper's front man vs a punk rocker for the Senate seat? Lol.