Copying this to keep the discussion in one place:
Steve Forbes is looking for a new experience this week: an ETSU win at Furman. Heck, ETSU has not won at Furman since the Wadood-Fields team of 2003-2004.
Last year we got skunked 62-75 at their place. Almost as bad, we had to go to overtime to avoid a Senior Day humiliation by the Paladins at home. In BOTH of those games Furman played without star 6-8 post Matt Rafferty (back surgery). The key players from that team are all back, with the exception of Kris Acox who is replaced by a healthy Rafferty. I hope the Bucs don’t pick this game to start enjoying their press clippings.
Furman is 8-1 at home overall and 2-0 at home in the Socon (beating 2-3 Mercer and 1-4 the Citadel). The Paladins are ranked 104th by Kenpom, ahead of Stanford (107), Georgia Southern (111), Mercer (112) and UNCG (114). They need to erase the sting of their Saturday 70-79 loss at Wofford (king of SoCon home court advantage), their first loss in the SoCon.
Furman’s only home loss was an early season November 29 whupping by Winthrop 93-74. It was a rout where Winthrop [currently 8-8 and 2-3 in the Big South with a 180 KenPom ranking] blew out to a 20 point lead early and never let the Paladins get closer than 16. Since that game Furman is 9-2 with the only losses coming on the road, at #14 12-4 Tennessee in Knoxville by 5, 61-66, and at the conqueror of UNC, 12-5 Wofford 70-79. Furman did struggle to scrape by 2-3 Mercer at home 74-71, while ETSU smacked the Bears in Macon 74-55.
The Bucs are 6-3 in away games, losing on the road to NKU, Kentucky and Xavier. We are 3-0 in away games in conference with wins over 2-3 Mercer, 3-2 Samford and 0-5 Chattanooga. The last Buc loss was Xavier’s December 16 comeback.
Furman’s key players are all Seniors (Sibley, Fowler, Davis) or Juniors (Andrew Brown, Matt Rafferty).
Strong points for the Paladins are very good guard play (second to only freakish Citadel in scoring offense, 80.4; assists, 16.8; steals, 8.7; and turnover margin +3.89). They want to play high tempo and shoot a lot of three’s (10.5 makes on .355 to 7.3 on .344 for ETSU; although in conference it’s a bit closer with 11.2 makes on .383 for Furman to 8.0 makes on .444 for the Bucs).
Devin Sibley is 4th in the SoCon in scoring with 15.7, but unlike Fletcher Mcgee or Francis Alonso he’s got a fleet of talented scorers around him, especially seniors Daniel Fowler and John Davis and junior Andrew Brown.
Weaknesses are size (of their top 5 players only 1 is over 6-4, the fairly slim Matt Rafferty at 6-8 215) and front court depth (behind Rafferty they don't get much from Williams, Beans or Mounce), leading to weak rebounding margin (+0.1 to +3.0 for ETSU) and weak basket protection (+2.4 blocked shots to +4.2 for ETSU; field goal percentage defense of .438 to .404, 47th in D1, for ETSU). Furman does defend the 3 a bit better (allowing 6.6 makes on .306 shooting to 7.3 makes on .318 allowed by ETSU; although that does reverse in conference where ETSU has better 3 point defense allowing 5.8 makes on .290 shooting to 7.8 on .348; which is in turn explainable in part by ETSU facing the 5 weakest 3 point shooting teams in conference while Furman has had to play Wofford)
I wonder if this game will repeat a pattern shown with UNCG where emphasis on getting out to the perimeter fast for excellent 3 point defense seemed to contribute to the paint being open for cuts to the basket by Jurkin and Armas?
The bad thing for Furman is that ETSU is close to them in their strong points (scoring offense [80.4 to 78.1], steals [8.5 to 8.7], turnover margin [3.89 to 3.00]) and decisively better in Furman’s weaker areas (rebounding 0.1 to 3.0, blocked shots 2.3 to 4.2, FG% defense .438 to .404, FG% scored .480 for ETSU to .442 for Furman).
In the front court: Rafferty is back healthy: 2nd in the SoCon in rebounding with 7.9, 19th in scoring with 11.3, and 1st in FG% with .636. But he gets little help in either minutes or production from 6-8 245 Rs-So Jalen Williams (9.4 minutes, 3.1 ppg, 0 3’s, 3.9 rebounds), 6-7 210 Sr Geoff Beans (10.2 minutes, 3.2 ppg on .260 from 3 with 0.7 makes, 1.5 rebounds), and 6-7 200 Rs-Fr Clay Mounce (11.3 minutes, 5.1 ppg, only 4 three’s all year on.267, 2.4 rebounds). Mounce is most likely to be on the bench in close games. They miss 6-6 Acox with his tough physical presence. Power moves from Bo Hodges and David Burrell should work against these guys. Post players 7-0 Jurkin and 6-10 Armas should have a physical edge.
This should be a high tempo barn burner. I give the edge to the Bucs, mostly for superior defense, if they are ready, which they have been so far this year with only 1 or 2 exceptions.
Guards:
#12 6-2 175 Sr Devin Sibley, 27.4 minutes, 15.7 ppg, .383 from 3 (2.0 makes), 4.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 3.0 t.o.'s, 0.8 steals
#35 6-4 203 Sr Daniel Fowler, 28.8 minutes, 11.4 ppg, .407 from 3 (1.8 makes), 3.6 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.6 t.o.'s, 1.5 steals
#1 5-11 165 Sr John Davis, 28.2 minutes, 11.2 ppg, .317 from 3 (1.1 makes), 2.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.4 t.o.'s, 1.6 steals
#5 6-4 212 Jr Andrew Brown, 23.7 minutes, 7.5 ppg, .391 from 3 (1.5 makes), 3.1 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.1 t.o.'s, 1.2 steals
#23 5-11 170 So Jordan Lyons, 16.7 minutes, 8.5 ppg, .347 from 3 (2.0 makes), 1.3 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 1.6 t.o.'s
#10 5-11 170 Fr Alex Hunter, 12.8 minutes, 3.1 ppg, .375 from 3 (0.7 makes), 2.0 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.6 t.o.'s
Front Court:
#32 6-8 215 Jr Matt Rafferty, 27.3 minutes, 11.3 ppg, .636 FG%, .429 from 3 (0.5 makes), 7.9 rebounds
#45 6-7 200 Rs-Fr Clay Mounce, 11.3 minutes, 5.1 ppg on .267 from 3 (4 makes all year), 2.4 rebounds
#2 6-8 245 Rs-So Jalen Williams, 9.4 minutes, 3.1 ppg, 0 three's, 3.9 rebounds
#3 6-7 210 Sr Geoff Beans, 10.2 minutes, 3.2 ppg, .260 from 3 (0.7 makes), 1.5 rebounds
I remember the last ETSU victory at Furman. Tim Smith had to hit a last second shot to seal it.
I'v been so pissed leaving Timmons Arena the past two years it makes me not want to go back. However, our defense is compelling me to make the short drive from charlotte to greenville once again this year..
Good news about Patrick, I was hoping he'd be put on scholarship, he deserves it.
Timmons is a horrible place to watch a game.
Tomorrow nights game has been moved to a 730 tip time. The women’s game will be at five tomorrow.
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Big game....Furman is a 2 point favorite.
It will be interesting to see what the mindset for Furman's players is like tonight. As you may know, a member of the Furman lacrosse team was killed in a motorcycle accident Friday. After the game coach Richey spent such a long time in the locker talking to the team that the radio folks had to finally cut off the post game show because they couldn't wait for him to come out and talk after the game. The lacrosse players have been a prominent and loud group at the basketball games the past few years and they and the basketball team guys have been close. The lacrosse players have been the ones who often dress in wild outfits, change ends of the court at the half so they can sit behind the visitors' basket and generally make a commotion all game long.
Refs need to call some fouls on Furman. Getting mugged every time in the paint.
Two fouls on Long, not good.
Our team so far isn't putting Jurkin/Armus in a position to succeed.
These refs are going to respond to drama.
(01-18-2018 07:58 PM)etsubuc Wrote: [ -> ]Our team so far isn't putting Jurkin/Armus in a position to succeed.
That's Furple's defense. They're playing D like they're ETSU. Great job.
We need to box out. Also Furman flop a bunch, probably worse than UNCG.
Both Jurkin and Armus are having trouble with Rafferty.
They're killing us on the boards, but we're killing them with pass deflections turned into steals.