01-07-2018, 03:29 PM
Don’t miss this game! UNCG poses more threats for us than any team in the SoCon. They are prone to wild swings, but do not quit. And they beat us 2 ½ times out of 3 last year. If there was ever a game that the Bucs could use fan support, this is it.
UNCG runs to extremes, beating NC State and losing to Presbyterian; coming within 6 of Wake Forest, and coming within 2 of losing at VMI in their most recent game.
They can give up a blistering offensive display in the first half to Wofford, and then shut them down to come back and win in Greensboro. Or they can blow a first half lead at VMI and have to scramble back to save a win. Clearly they are not dead because they play a bad half. You need to put a stake in their heart and play 2 good halves against them.
They have a better balance of decent front court size and skill and guard scoring than any other opponent we will face in the SoCon. And can be effective on both the defense and offensive ends.
The front court gives them a solid +6.0 rebound margin, first in the SoCon and 45th in D1. ETSU is 3rd in the SoCon at +2.7. Slim 6-10 200 Rs-So James Dickey is long and athletic, scoring 8.7 ppg on .505 with 0 three’s, 8.6 rebounds, 2.2 blocks and 2.4 t.o.’s in 28.9 minutes. 6-9 250 Rs-Sr Jordy Kuiper adds muscle and long range shooting, scoring 5.9 points on .333 FG% with .333 from 3 (1.2 makes), 5.5 rebounds, in 26.5 minutes. 6-8 215 So Kyrin Galloway is long and slim with 5.5 points on .630. He might make a 3 every 3 or 4 games on .308, but reliably grabs 4.5 rebounds in 18.4 minutes.
The wild card for them in the front court is former walk-on Garrett Collins, a pudgy 6-5 200 something guy with a top knot who can come off the bench and hit 2 or 3 threes before you know what happened (.360, 9-25) – or do nothing at all, averaging only 6.3 minutes. You’ve got to defend him at the perimeter
Their strong point is Defense – holding opponents to .414 FG% compared to .417 for ETSU – 1st and 2nd in the SoCOn. They hold opponents to .299 3pt% with 5.9 makes (second in the SoCon to Furman’s .297, 20th in D1) compared to .324 and 7.5 makes for the Bucs. They block 3.1 shots to ETSU’s 3.9, again, 2nd and 1st in the SoCon. They grab 9.1 steals to the Bucs 8.6 (2nd and 3rd in SoCon; about 14th and 30th in all D1) and have a t.o. margin of +1.80 to ETSU’s +3.25 (3rd and 4th in SoCon, with the Bucs about 40th in D1). That defense is what enabled them to put the brakes on Wofford’s shooters and gradually claw back into that game. We can expect 2 of the best defenses in the SoCon on display Thursday, two of the better defenses in D1 (KenPom rates ETSU 55 and UNCG 79 among D1 defenses).
Offensively ETSU pushes the tempo more (78.0 points per game to 73.6) and makes a higher 2 point FG% (1st in conference and 35th in D1 with a 55.5% 2 point%, which has gone up to a whopping 62.5% over the last 3 conference games, 7th in all D1 for the last 3 games. UNCG is a mediocre 48.8% 2 point%, 208th in D1). UNCG makes a better 3 point percentage (3rd in SoCon .365 with 10.1 makes, compared to 8th in conference .342 with 7.4 makes for the Bucs). But the Bucs are improving here: in conference games only, the Bucs are a surprising 2nd in conference (behind only Wofford) .491 with 9.3 makes, while UNCG is a 6th in conference .353 with 9.0 makes. Really, you could look it up: http://www.soconsports.com/fls/4000/soco...nfonly.htm That is a stunning 4th in all D1 over the last 3 games, although still behind Wofford, which is in 3rd for those games with an even .500. https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basket...-point-pct
This is a big thing, since it seems that the Bucs are beginning to erase their biggest statistical weakness: inability to hit the 3. With 3 point shooting in conference going this way, it is not surprising that the results of games have also been going the Bucs’ way.
6-3 Jr Guard Francis Alonso, a genuine Malaga Boquerón, is everything that he was last year with blistering 3 pt shooting off screens and non-stop motion, and clever moves around the basket (18.4 points on .456 from 3 with 3.8 makes per game, 2nd to Fletcher Mcgee). They miss Diante Baldwin, especially his scoring and to a lesser extent defense at the guard position. 6-0 187 Sr PG Demetrius Troy and 6-3 195 So Malik Massey are pretty much what they were last year with Troy doing the bulk of the ballhandling for 23.9 minutes (3.6 assists, 2.2 t.o.’s, 1.4 steals). Massey adds 5.2 points and 1.2 rebounds in 18.3 minutes of chippy play, shooting .367 from 3 (0.7 makes). 6-0 Freshman PG Isaiah Miller reminds me a little of Sheldon Cooley playing 14.5 minutes, scoring 7.1 on .528 FG% (but only 1-7 from 3) and grabbing 1.5 steals.
6-6 205 Marvin Smith is kind of an x factor who can be productive (10.9 ppg on .375 FG%, .318 from 3 (1.8 makes) and 4.7 rebounds in 25 minutes), or disappear for long stretches.
They’ll slow the tempo and throw a couple varieties of press at us – a ‘lite’ variety to take seconds off the clock, slow the tempo and deprive us of time to set the offense, and a more high octane one aimed at turnovers and steals. We did poorly against the press in the Samford game, and had trouble with the UNCG press last year. I would bet that UNCG is spending a lot of time devising variants to hit us with. And I'd be pretty confident that Forbes is preparing to meet the same.
This is a very different ETSU team than last year – more balanced on offense, more consistent on defense and stronger in the post. But I still think that UNCG poses more threats for us than any other team in the SoCon.
I’d expect a roller coaster with plenty of action and lots of twists and turns. This should be a barn burner with UNCG never dead till they’re staked through the heart. Here’s hoping this game gets the fan support it deserves.
UNCG runs to extremes, beating NC State and losing to Presbyterian; coming within 6 of Wake Forest, and coming within 2 of losing at VMI in their most recent game.
They can give up a blistering offensive display in the first half to Wofford, and then shut them down to come back and win in Greensboro. Or they can blow a first half lead at VMI and have to scramble back to save a win. Clearly they are not dead because they play a bad half. You need to put a stake in their heart and play 2 good halves against them.
They have a better balance of decent front court size and skill and guard scoring than any other opponent we will face in the SoCon. And can be effective on both the defense and offensive ends.
The front court gives them a solid +6.0 rebound margin, first in the SoCon and 45th in D1. ETSU is 3rd in the SoCon at +2.7. Slim 6-10 200 Rs-So James Dickey is long and athletic, scoring 8.7 ppg on .505 with 0 three’s, 8.6 rebounds, 2.2 blocks and 2.4 t.o.’s in 28.9 minutes. 6-9 250 Rs-Sr Jordy Kuiper adds muscle and long range shooting, scoring 5.9 points on .333 FG% with .333 from 3 (1.2 makes), 5.5 rebounds, in 26.5 minutes. 6-8 215 So Kyrin Galloway is long and slim with 5.5 points on .630. He might make a 3 every 3 or 4 games on .308, but reliably grabs 4.5 rebounds in 18.4 minutes.
The wild card for them in the front court is former walk-on Garrett Collins, a pudgy 6-5 200 something guy with a top knot who can come off the bench and hit 2 or 3 threes before you know what happened (.360, 9-25) – or do nothing at all, averaging only 6.3 minutes. You’ve got to defend him at the perimeter
Their strong point is Defense – holding opponents to .414 FG% compared to .417 for ETSU – 1st and 2nd in the SoCOn. They hold opponents to .299 3pt% with 5.9 makes (second in the SoCon to Furman’s .297, 20th in D1) compared to .324 and 7.5 makes for the Bucs. They block 3.1 shots to ETSU’s 3.9, again, 2nd and 1st in the SoCon. They grab 9.1 steals to the Bucs 8.6 (2nd and 3rd in SoCon; about 14th and 30th in all D1) and have a t.o. margin of +1.80 to ETSU’s +3.25 (3rd and 4th in SoCon, with the Bucs about 40th in D1). That defense is what enabled them to put the brakes on Wofford’s shooters and gradually claw back into that game. We can expect 2 of the best defenses in the SoCon on display Thursday, two of the better defenses in D1 (KenPom rates ETSU 55 and UNCG 79 among D1 defenses).
Offensively ETSU pushes the tempo more (78.0 points per game to 73.6) and makes a higher 2 point FG% (1st in conference and 35th in D1 with a 55.5% 2 point%, which has gone up to a whopping 62.5% over the last 3 conference games, 7th in all D1 for the last 3 games. UNCG is a mediocre 48.8% 2 point%, 208th in D1). UNCG makes a better 3 point percentage (3rd in SoCon .365 with 10.1 makes, compared to 8th in conference .342 with 7.4 makes for the Bucs). But the Bucs are improving here: in conference games only, the Bucs are a surprising 2nd in conference (behind only Wofford) .491 with 9.3 makes, while UNCG is a 6th in conference .353 with 9.0 makes. Really, you could look it up: http://www.soconsports.com/fls/4000/soco...nfonly.htm That is a stunning 4th in all D1 over the last 3 games, although still behind Wofford, which is in 3rd for those games with an even .500. https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basket...-point-pct
This is a big thing, since it seems that the Bucs are beginning to erase their biggest statistical weakness: inability to hit the 3. With 3 point shooting in conference going this way, it is not surprising that the results of games have also been going the Bucs’ way.
6-3 Jr Guard Francis Alonso, a genuine Malaga Boquerón, is everything that he was last year with blistering 3 pt shooting off screens and non-stop motion, and clever moves around the basket (18.4 points on .456 from 3 with 3.8 makes per game, 2nd to Fletcher Mcgee). They miss Diante Baldwin, especially his scoring and to a lesser extent defense at the guard position. 6-0 187 Sr PG Demetrius Troy and 6-3 195 So Malik Massey are pretty much what they were last year with Troy doing the bulk of the ballhandling for 23.9 minutes (3.6 assists, 2.2 t.o.’s, 1.4 steals). Massey adds 5.2 points and 1.2 rebounds in 18.3 minutes of chippy play, shooting .367 from 3 (0.7 makes). 6-0 Freshman PG Isaiah Miller reminds me a little of Sheldon Cooley playing 14.5 minutes, scoring 7.1 on .528 FG% (but only 1-7 from 3) and grabbing 1.5 steals.
6-6 205 Marvin Smith is kind of an x factor who can be productive (10.9 ppg on .375 FG%, .318 from 3 (1.8 makes) and 4.7 rebounds in 25 minutes), or disappear for long stretches.
They’ll slow the tempo and throw a couple varieties of press at us – a ‘lite’ variety to take seconds off the clock, slow the tempo and deprive us of time to set the offense, and a more high octane one aimed at turnovers and steals. We did poorly against the press in the Samford game, and had trouble with the UNCG press last year. I would bet that UNCG is spending a lot of time devising variants to hit us with. And I'd be pretty confident that Forbes is preparing to meet the same.
This is a very different ETSU team than last year – more balanced on offense, more consistent on defense and stronger in the post. But I still think that UNCG poses more threats for us than any other team in the SoCon.
I’d expect a roller coaster with plenty of action and lots of twists and turns. This should be a barn burner with UNCG never dead till they’re staked through the heart. Here’s hoping this game gets the fan support it deserves.