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Full Version: Could This Year's CFP Speed Up Realignment?
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I think there is a very good chance that it could. Let's make 1 simple assumption. The top four schools win out through the regular season. Notre Dame is in and idle for the CCG's. Clemson defeats a one loss Miami in the ACC CCG. And an undefeated Alabama and an undefeated Georgia meet with one of them winning a clean hard fought and close game.

The PAC's champion Washington is passed over.

The Big 10's champion Wisconsin or Ohio State/Michigan State is passed over.

The Big 12's champion Oklahoma or T.C.U. is passed over.

The PAC would clamor for more Eastern exposure and they need carriage and more venues to get it. That's a strong incentive for expansion.

The Big 10 might change position on a champs only model for the CFP. They are currently opposed as is the SEC.

The Big 12 might really feel dismissed so much that they feel the need to move earlier than 2025.

The ACC might like a guarantee of participation especially in light of the fact that Florida State is down and another Clemson loss may have left them out. Plus a Champs only would pressure N.D. to consider full membership.

That would leave the Big 12 considering early movement, the PAC needing to be proactive for markets and consideration, the ACC with an angle to land Notre Dame's clout more exclusively, and the Big 10 wanting a guarantee to make sure their champion isn't left out again.

It could easily be 4 votes to 1 (SEC) to move to a champs only format which would require the dismantling of the Big 12.

So if the top four in the CFP rankings win out for the regular season and the scenario I laid out occurs in the CCG's things could get mighty interesting during the early off-season. It might well be the catalyst to end realignment with a series of moves to dismantle the Big 12.

Oh, and the networks couldn't be too thrilled with the prospect of 2 SEC schools plus Clemson (three state area in the deep Southeast) and Notre Dame. The Northern Midwest and the Pacific West, and the Southwest would all be alienated by that field. So at a time when ESPN might like the profits they could come a cropper on the CFP. I'd say that would would add a heckuva lot of fuel to the realignment fires.
Having 3 southeastern schools and Notre Dame in the playoffs will not turnoff major college football viewers outside those regions. An all SEC final probably will just like when Alabama and LSU rematched.

More likely this thing gets expanded to 6 or 8 .
(11-05-2017 10:20 PM)murrdcu Wrote: [ -> ]Having 3 southeastern schools and Notre Dame in the playoffs will not turnoff major college football viewers outside those regions. An all SEC final probably will just like when Alabama and LSU rematched.

More likely this thing gets expanded to 6 or 8 .

There's no chance of that. There's not any interest at the conference level and the president's are against it. I'd say it is far more likely we push towards a champ's only so the commissioners and presidents don't have to respond to anxious and irritated fans wanting to know how their conference got left out.

Occam's Razor says it is the simplest solution. Plus it gives the networks a guarantee that the semis will engage all regions of the country.
Realignment is waiting on the US government.
Makes more sense to just go to 8 with some variation of 5+3
Should the B1G, PAC, and XII get passed over for SEC #1, SEC #2, ACC #1, and Notre Dame...

The B1G and PAC will want to maximize "firepower" which, essentially, means Oklahoma. Texas will add money but the best opportunity for the CFP and football championships is Oklahoma.

The B1G offers Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Connecticut. This breathes a little life into football, basketball, academics, markets, etc.

The PAC looks to central time zone schools and offers TCU, Houston, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St, Kansas St, and Iowa St. This looks a little bit like patchwork realignment but it gets the job done.

West Virginia goes independent. The ACC and SEC keep tabs on the Mountaineers.

B1G
West: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois
North: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan St
East: Michigan, Ohio St, Penn St, Maryland, Rutgers, Connecticut

PAC
North: Washington, Washington St, Oregon, Oregon St, California, Stanford
South: USC, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona St, Utah, Colorado
Central: Texas Tech, TCU, Houston, Oklahoma St, Kansas St, Iowa St
The champs only model after expansion with the Rose (B1G and PAC) and Sugar (SEC and ACC) bowls as the semifinals is an attractive model - especially if you have semi-finals in the conference championship structure. It keeps every region of the US engaged at least through the CFP semifinal games.

However, a year like 2017 shows the flaw in that structure, given the importance of the rankings system in college football. Even if Oklahoma, TCU, Texas, and Oklahoma St. are in the B1G or PAC this year, the system would allow a team outside of the top-4 in the rankings to play for the national championship.

Sugar Bowl would likely be: #1Alabama/#2Georgia v. #3Notre Dame/#4Clemson/#7Miami.

Rose Bowl would be: #5Oklahoma/#6Wisconsin/B1G East winner v. #8TCU/#9Washington/#15USC

The system would still be the best long-term strategy. But, the rankings system would need to take a back seat to the conference championship races.

It works for the NFL, so it could work for college football; but it would require a paradigm shift.
(11-06-2017 09:14 AM)Gamecock Wrote: [ -> ]Makes more sense to just go to 8 with some variation of 5+3

The networks, the schools, and the athletic departments are not set up to head in that direction even if they had the desire to do so, which they don't. And perhaps more importantly, I don't think the players would be thrilled either. Most dream of the NFL and the last thing they want to do is increase their chance of injury by adding another game they aren't paid to play in.
(11-06-2017 10:07 AM)BePcr07 Wrote: [ -> ]Should the B1G, PAC, and XII get passed over for SEC #1, SEC #2, ACC #1, and Notre Dame...

The B1G and PAC will want to maximize "firepower" which, essentially, means Oklahoma. Texas will add money but the best opportunity for the CFP and football championships is Oklahoma.

The B1G offers Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Connecticut. This breathes a little life into football, basketball, academics, markets, etc.

The PAC looks to central time zone schools and offers TCU, Houston, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St, Kansas St, and Iowa St. This looks a little bit like patchwork realignment but it gets the job done.

West Virginia goes independent. The ACC and SEC keep tabs on the Mountaineers.

B1G
West: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois
North: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan St
East: Michigan, Ohio St, Penn St, Maryland, Rutgers, Connecticut

PAC
North: Washington, Washington St, Oregon, Oregon St, California, Stanford
South: USC, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona St, Utah, Colorado
Central: Texas Tech, TCU, Houston, Oklahoma St, Kansas St, Iowa St

The PAC isn't expanding without Texas and if you don't believe me ask the PAC guys who know their administrations.

There may be a bidding war for Oklahoma and Texas but remember the SEC schools make on average 16 million more a year in total revenue than Big 10 schools so there is no certainty about what direction they head.

Right now the FBI, GOR's and network quarterly reports are holding up realignment. The FBI may yet determine which sports remain non profit and which become for profit. GOR's require a process to dissolve them and that means 8 Big 12 schools have to find homes and there aren't that many homes available to Big 12 schools. And the networks are having to reassess their directions.

But that is why I posted this thread. If a couple of P5's are left out of this upcoming CFP then we might well have the motivation provided to get most of the parties moving again.
(11-06-2017 12:52 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-06-2017 09:14 AM)Gamecock Wrote: [ -> ]Makes more sense to just go to 8 with some variation of 5+3

The networks, the schools, and the athletic departments are set up to head in that direction even if they had the desire to do so, which they don't. And perhaps more importantly, I don't think the players would be thrilled either. Most dream of the NFL and the last thing they want to do is increase their chance of injury by adding another game they aren't paid to play in.

I don't think the players have much of a voice but if they did I'd imagine they'd relish an expansion of the playoffs. They want to play when it matters; in the Armed Forces Bowl maybe not so much.

As far as administration, I imagine it would be very much like the BCS. Everyone loves and supports it until they don't. A UGA/Clemson/Bama/ND playoff where the Big 12, Big Ten, and Pac 12 all get left out might just be the impetus needed.
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