I'm a little confused by what seems to be primarily Frank's assertion that GCU & CSUB have both lost more production as a result of graduating/transferring players than NMSU. I don't have CSUB's stats, but the numbers don't add up on the GCU/NMSU claim.
GCU's graduated players (Russell/Clark) accounted for 749 of 2282 total season points (32.8%). By contrast, NMSU's production from Aggies' mix of Baker/Huggins/Taylor/Hayley/Ellis/Bhullar accounted for almost 56% (1496 of 2678 total points) of scoring in 2016-17. Even if you go by PPG production, GCU lost just under 40% of their scoring, as opposed to NMSU's over 60% loss.
Am I missing something in the math, or is Frank using some kind of advanced metrics I'm not on to yet? Without even looking at numbers, I can tell you losing Baker and Huggins alone is a bigger combined loss of production than Russell & Clark. I'd love to know what you are looking at, Coach.
I dont think Frank has ever used anything but passion to base his arguments. Same way he is the one WAC fan to think Hayford is a bad hire
(05-04-2017 01:35 PM)SeattleVandals Wrote: [ -> ]I dont think Frank has ever used anything but passion to base his arguments. Same way he is the one WAC fan to think Hayford is a bad hire
I want to give him the benefit of the doubt. If there is another metric he is using, I'd love to hear about it. Maybe it is logical to argue that you need to recover less production per player, as NMSU is spreading it over more roster spots. I might buy that.
Also, I found/ran the same numbers for CSUB. Graduating Airington, Basile, Smith, & Pride was a loss of 55.5% in total points (1388 of 2502) and 55.9% in PPG (40 of 71.5 PPG).
New Mexico State is losing their two leading scorers in Baker and Huggins. They are losing 47.5 ppg out of their 79 total or 60% of their scoring. CSUB is losing 40 ppg out of their total 71 or 56% of their scoring. So yeah it doesn't add up at all. Losing Baker and Huggins is going to have more of an impact than losing Airington and Basile who already have direct replacements in Durham (2nd leading scorer at 12.7 ppg) and Briggs (7.4 ppg but came on late in the season). Yes they have Ndir but we will see if he's the same after the injury. AJ Harris is touted to be good coming from Ohio State but is still a new addition that will take time to gel. Other than that they don't have much depth at the guard position.
(05-04-2017 02:03 PM)Clarity Wrote: [ -> ]New Mexico State is losing their two leading scorers in Baker and Huggins. They are losing 47.5 ppg out of their 79 total or 60% of their scoring. CSUB is losing 40 ppg out of their total 71 or 56% of their scoring. So yeah it doesn't add up at all. Losing Baker and Huggins is going to have more of an impact than losing Airington and Basile who already have direct replacements in Durham (2nd leading scorer at 12.7 ppg) and Briggs (7.4 ppg but came on late in the season). Yes they have Ndir but we will see if he's the same after the injury. AJ Harris is touted to be good coming from Ohio State but is still a new addition that will take time to gel. Other than that they don't have much depth at the guard position.
Guess we will have to see when all said and done. New Mexico State has suffered major loses. However, we still have managed to get back to the top despite adversity in many occasions. I'm pretty confident coach Jans has something up his sleeves he is just deciding for y'all to figure it out. When everyone is waiting for you to speak (NMSU) that's how you know it's the real deal. Mark my words NMSU will still compete for a WAC title. I do believe that GCU and CSUB will be really tough to beat no doubt about it. Let's wait and see who Coach Jans picks up first. Then we can determine how much we lost, because IMO losing coach weir is the best thing to happen to NMSU. No doubt an excellent sales man but to be the head honcho it's going to take more then just making people believe your product is good. I think this is the year the WAC finally breaks out of the first round. Whether that be NMSU, GCU, or CSUB. Our little league is becoming a good conference. Go WAC!
Agreed man, I love this damn bizarre conference. I am very interested in where Jans is going to replace those leaving. This season will be the best and most competitive yet, I can't wait until basketball season. The WAC if it can stick together will be a force for years to come. I hope to see whoever gets in the big dance win a game.
(05-04-2017 02:37 PM)Clarity Wrote: [ -> ]Agreed man, I love this damn bizarre conference. I am very interested in where Jans is going to replace those leaving. This season will be the best and most competitive yet, I can't wait until basketball season. The WAC if it can stick together will be a force for years to come. I hope to see whoever gets in the big dance win a game.
Agreed! Not going to lie I watched a lot more WAC games this past season then before. More so CSUB and GCU. I love the publicity those two universities bring to the WAC. Watch y'all's NIT run and was very pleased to watch y'all smack down CSU in the Moby. Let's hope our WAC stay togther and eventually picks off USCD and Denver. That would be my dream WAC. Would love to see someone in this conference reach the Top 25. Imagine if next season pans out and we get multiple bids? Sounds far fetched but I believe anything can happen.
That's what I am hoping for man! That NIT run was magical and I hope to see another WAC team replicate it. WAC teams will start winning games in the NCAA tournament soon, I can feel it.
NMSU, Utah Valley, and GCU will be favorites to win the WAC crown. I think Bakerfield will take a step back next season. They could be back in 2018. Only time will tell.
Great facts and reason you present.
I may be in the minority here, but assuming NMSU doesnt lose anyone else I could still see them winning the WAC next season. It's a 2 team race with GCU imo, with Bako and UVU right behind them as darkhorses. Once the WAC tourny starts though, who knows. Should be best WACt in its modern membership to date
I think we should revisit this when the NMSU roster is finalized. Way too many question marks right now.
Yeah, I'm not anywhere near handing the WAC trophy to any team right now. Any one of 4-5 teams could/might challenge for that come conference play. Could NMSU win it? Sure. Could Bake keep the momentum of these last 2 years going & finish on top? Absolutely. Can GCU finally break through after finishing in 2nd place each of the last 3 seasons? Dear God, I hope so! Will UVU jump up and deliver on the potential some of us have seen for a couple years? Maybe.
(05-04-2017 04:37 PM)gleadley Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah, I'm not anywhere near handing the WAC trophy to any team right now. Any one of 4-5 teams could/might challenge for that come conference play. Could NMSU win it? Sure. Could Bake keep the momentum of these last 2 years going & finish on top? Absolutely. Can GCU finally break through after finishing in 2nd place each of the last 3 seasons? Dear God, I hope so! Will UVU jump up and deliver on the potential some of us have seen for a couple years? Maybe.
Yeah I am definitely tired of being the bridesmaid in the WAC
I will say, the team nobody is talking about that could suprise is UTRGV. Hill is getting his guys, with some great young players and transfers like Terry Winn. They bring in 3-star Greg Bowie and 3-star Adrean Johnson will be a RS Freshman. Im high on Xavier McDaniel, who will just be a SO, and Antonio Green, JR
Vaqueros could finish as high as 3rd in my opinion, but they have a brighter future than people give them credit for. As long as they show signs of growth again with a young roster, in 2018-19 and 2019-20 they could easily be competing for WAC titles
I think they will finish about .500 but will be a lot better in a few years. I also think they will get some big wins this year but won't be consistent. I like what Hill is doing with the program though. A team that will probably be in the upper half of the WAC in 2018 and continue to get better.
(05-04-2017 05:18 PM)Clarity Wrote: [ -> ]I think they will finish about .500 but will be a lot better in a few years. I also think they will get some big wins this year but won't be consistent. I like what Hill is doing with the program though. A team that will probably be in the upper half of the WAC in 2018 and continue to get better.
Circling back to lost production, UTRGV loses virtually no offense. Xavier McDaniel alone scored more total points than the 5 leaving transfers combined. Dixon, Green, & Stallworth is a 3-headed, bucket-getting monster.
What Coach Hill really needs is to get some buy in and commitment from his players on the defensive end. Scoring 78.3ppg is fantastic, unless you're giving up 83.3ppg. Figure out defense & I agree UTRGV gets real dangerous real quick.
(05-04-2017 05:37 PM)gleadley Wrote: [ -> ] (05-04-2017 05:18 PM)Clarity Wrote: [ -> ]I think they will finish about .500 but will be a lot better in a few years. I also think they will get some big wins this year but won't be consistent. I like what Hill is doing with the program though. A team that will probably be in the upper half of the WAC in 2018 and continue to get better.
Circling back to lost production, UTRGV loses virtually no offense. Xavier McDaniel alone scored more total points than the 5 leaving transfers combined. Dixon, Green, & Stallworth is a 3-headed, bucket-getting monster. What Coach Hill really needs is to get some buy in and commitment from his players on the defensive end.
Yeah the defensive is going to need drastic improvements. NMSU hung over a 100 on them twice which is just insane. I know they push the pace but Jesus lol
You're preaching to the choir here with the defense needing drastic improvements. I'm hoping it was just a players needing to learn a new coaches system issue.
I know Lots of you want facts but everything is unknown and up in the air and I see 4 teams that could all easily win the WAC. To many unknowns to give a factual picture of next year.