The European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve have been majorly interconnected for quite some time. Should Great Britain withdraw from the European Central Bank it will be to keep their currency and borders more secure. Italy, Portugal, Greece, and Spain all weigh heavily on the Euro as major debtor nations. Great Britain's withdrawal will cause the ECB to tighten its lending rate and will result in a destabilization of the Euro which in turn could easily bleed over to our shores since both the Euro and Dollar have been used in recent years to prop one another up since both are fiat currencies that share many of the same corporate depositors and investors.
If inflation hits the U.S. at a time when job growth is stagnant it will result in much less disposable income on the consumer end of things, and much tighter fiscal policy on the corporate end of things. In other words it could well spell the end of the sports rights bubble that has been growing for some time now.
If that happens it means that conferences with long term locked in contracts will be in a much better position going forward. This favors the SEC, ACC, and doesn't hurt the PAC as it is presently comported. It also means that the Big 10 which renegotiated in 6 years could find things a bit chillier than their present contract.
The biggest victim however will be the Big 12. Just 8 years away from a new deal, and with the dreams in some schools heads of making a move that would bump their new conference payouts to record numbers, it could turn into quite the nightmare. In 2024 with no network, shrinking rights dollars, and no desire in the hearts of the PAC, SEC and ACC to share what they are presently making schools like Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas could easily find themselves on the outside looking in. The failure of Boren to act might well leave both of the Oklahoma schools stuck between lessening numbers in one of the most unstable conferences, and little to no prospects of finding a new home.
I can see the PAC & Big 10 standing pat and the SEC and ACC refusing to open up their existing contracts to scrutiny because of additions. If you are almost certain to receive a smaller offer in the future the motivation to bankroll as much as you possibly can now will be a huge temptation for conferences with long contracts. Splitting a potentially smaller pie won't be appetizing for those whose contracts are going to be up soon. While Texas has the money to ride this out, Oklahoma, Kansas, and the rest will feel the pinch significantly. But to be fair we all will, just not necessarily with TV contracts.
Maybe Oklahoma, Texas, or Kansas could move if the ACC or SEC got pro rata for the addition. But the lack of enthusiasm for change in tough times and the uncertainty of what that means in the future contraindicates it.
It could change everyone's favorite realignment scenarios profoundly.
(06-19-2016 01:22 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ]![[Image: giant-meteor-2.jpg?w=640&h=480]](https://usatsneakhype.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/giant-meteor-2.jpg?w=640&h=480)
OK guys drop the politics. The possibility of Great Britain's departure from the EU is quite real. Should that happen it will destabilize the ECB which helps prop up the FED and the consequences would assuredly be inflationary, and significant inflation at that. I don't see anyone expanding in that environment. And should it occur having a long term contract will be beneficial, not detrimental. We'll see.
(06-19-2016 01:29 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ] (06-19-2016 01:22 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ]
OK guys drop the politics. The possibility of Great Britain's departure from the EU is quite real. Should that happen it will destabilize the ECB which helps prop up the FED and the consequences would assuredly be inflationary, and significant inflation at that. I don't see anyone expanding in that environment. And should it occur having a long term contract will be beneficial, not detrimental. We'll see.
Political statements aside, I don't feel good about the future economically. The realignment of conferences is just a symptom of a bigger problem. A lot of people in my generation are learning to live with less, which I suppose is a fine thing, but I would prefer it to be voluntary rather than absolutely necessary.
What I'm most concerned about is the fear it will cause among the public. Fearful people don't make great decisions when it comes to policy.
(06-19-2016 01:54 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ] (06-19-2016 01:29 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ] (06-19-2016 01:22 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ]
OK guys drop the politics. The possibility of Great Britain's departure from the EU is quite real. Should that happen it will destabilize the ECB which helps prop up the FED and the consequences would assuredly be inflationary, and significant inflation at that. I don't see anyone expanding in that environment. And should it occur having a long term contract will be beneficial, not detrimental. We'll see.
Political statements aside, I don't feel good about the future economically. The realignment of conferences is just a symptom of a bigger problem. A lot of people in my generation are learning to live with less, which I suppose is a fine thing, but I would prefer it to be voluntary rather than absolutely necessary.
What I'm most concerned about is the fear it will cause among the public. Fearful people don't make great decisions when it comes to policy.
In '08 the Fear was used to justify the bail out. We would have better off to let the crooks fail, suffer the pain of the adjustment, and to have moved forward with more detachment between big business and government. Instead what happened simply proved the grossly close nature of the two. So I disagree that the decisions of the people will upset anything. The people only hold about 7% of the wealth now. It's the top 5% that hold the other 93%. That roughly corresponds to 1968 Mexico's disparity. In the 60's the people here held 30% of the wealth. Think about it.
Realignment is a symptom as I've said for 6 plus years. The bursting of the TV sports bubble will be a symptom of the deepening of the economic woes. People will ditch cable as a cost cutting measure. Car parts will go up in price as new cars decline. Food will continue to go up. Recreational activities like high dollar tickets to football will be on the chopping block as well. If the money tightens realignment will stop.
(06-19-2016 02:31 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ] (06-19-2016 01:54 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ] (06-19-2016 01:29 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ] (06-19-2016 01:22 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ]
OK guys drop the politics. The possibility of Great Britain's departure from the EU is quite real. Should that happen it will destabilize the ECB which helps prop up the FED and the consequences would assuredly be inflationary, and significant inflation at that. I don't see anyone expanding in that environment. And should it occur having a long term contract will be beneficial, not detrimental. We'll see.
Political statements aside, I don't feel good about the future economically. The realignment of conferences is just a symptom of a bigger problem. A lot of people in my generation are learning to live with less, which I suppose is a fine thing, but I would prefer it to be voluntary rather than absolutely necessary.
What I'm most concerned about is the fear it will cause among the public. Fearful people don't make great decisions when it comes to policy.
In '08 the Fear was used to justify the bail out. We would have better off to let the crooks fail, suffer the pain of the adjustment, and to have moved forward with more detachment between big business and government. Instead what happened simply proved the grossly close nature of the two. So I disagree that the decisions of the people will upset anything. The people only hold about 7% of the wealth now. It's the top 5% that hold the other 93%. That roughly corresponds to 1968 Mexico's disparity. In the 60's the people here held 30% of the wealth. Think about it.
Realignment is a symptom as I've said for 6 plus years. The bursting of the TV sports bubble will be a symptom of the deepening of the economic woes. People will ditch cable as a cost cutting measure. Car parts will go up in price as new cars decline. Food will continue to go up. Recreational activities like high dollar tickets to football will be on the chopping block as well. If the money tightens realignment will stop.
This might also give rise to more regional conferences.
(06-19-2016 02:31 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ] (06-19-2016 01:54 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ] (06-19-2016 01:29 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ] (06-19-2016 01:22 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ]
OK guys drop the politics. The possibility of Great Britain's departure from the EU is quite real. Should that happen it will destabilize the ECB which helps prop up the FED and the consequences would assuredly be inflationary, and significant inflation at that. I don't see anyone expanding in that environment. And should it occur having a long term contract will be beneficial, not detrimental. We'll see.
Political statements aside, I don't feel good about the future economically. The realignment of conferences is just a symptom of a bigger problem. A lot of people in my generation are learning to live with less, which I suppose is a fine thing, but I would prefer it to be voluntary rather than absolutely necessary.
What I'm most concerned about is the fear it will cause among the public. Fearful people don't make great decisions when it comes to policy.
In '08 the Fear was used to justify the bail out. We would have better off to let the crooks fail, suffer the pain of the adjustment, and to have moved forward with more detachment between big business and government. Instead what happened simply proved the grossly close nature of the two. So I disagree that the decisions of the people will upset anything. The people only hold about 7% of the wealth now. It's the top 5% that hold the other 93%. That roughly corresponds to 1968 Mexico's disparity. In the 60's the people here held 30% of the wealth. Think about it.
Realignment is a symptom as I've said for 6 plus years. The bursting of the TV sports bubble will be a symptom of the deepening of the economic woes. People will ditch cable as a cost cutting measure. Car parts will go up in price as new cars decline. Food will continue to go up. Recreational activities like high dollar tickets to football will be on the chopping block as well. If the money tightens realignment will stop.
What I mean by the people being afraid is that they usually choose poor leaders and clamor for horrible ideas. Of course, that's been going on for a while, but I fear we are headed for unadulterated socialism. The odds of individuals without wealth ever acquiring any will then be essentially zero.
(06-19-2016 08:15 PM)hawghiggs Wrote: [ -> ] (06-19-2016 02:31 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ] (06-19-2016 01:54 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ] (06-19-2016 01:29 PM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ] (06-19-2016 01:22 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: [ -> ]
OK guys drop the politics. The possibility of Great Britain's departure from the EU is quite real. Should that happen it will destabilize the ECB which helps prop up the FED and the consequences would assuredly be inflationary, and significant inflation at that. I don't see anyone expanding in that environment. And should it occur having a long term contract will be beneficial, not detrimental. We'll see.
Political statements aside, I don't feel good about the future economically. The realignment of conferences is just a symptom of a bigger problem. A lot of people in my generation are learning to live with less, which I suppose is a fine thing, but I would prefer it to be voluntary rather than absolutely necessary.
What I'm most concerned about is the fear it will cause among the public. Fearful people don't make great decisions when it comes to policy.
In '08 the Fear was used to justify the bail out. We would have better off to let the crooks fail, suffer the pain of the adjustment, and to have moved forward with more detachment between big business and government. Instead what happened simply proved the grossly close nature of the two. So I disagree that the decisions of the people will upset anything. The people only hold about 7% of the wealth now. It's the top 5% that hold the other 93%. That roughly corresponds to 1968 Mexico's disparity. In the 60's the people here held 30% of the wealth. Think about it.
Realignment is a symptom as I've said for 6 plus years. The bursting of the TV sports bubble will be a symptom of the deepening of the economic woes. People will ditch cable as a cost cutting measure. Car parts will go up in price as new cars decline. Food will continue to go up. Recreational activities like high dollar tickets to football will be on the chopping block as well. If the money tightens realignment will stop.
This might also give rise to more regional conferences.
I guess that wouldn't be such a bad thing. If we had 8 regional conferences that played a round robin schedule and the winners would advance to a national playoff then that's about as good as college sports could get.
My guess is that Britain will narrowly vote to stay in the EU.
If not, expect Scotland to vote for independence in short order and for a referendum in Northern Ireland to join the Republic.
(06-20-2016 06:43 AM)TerryD Wrote: [ -> ]My guess is that Britain will narrowly vote to stay in the EU.
If not, expect Scotland to vote for independence in short order and for a referendum in Northern Ireland to join the Republic.
That could very well be true, but this issue won't go away. Nothing has changed in the debtor nations. The immigration issue is not going away, in fact it is still increasing. And the Euro remains a fiat currency. Sovereignty remains the issue because of the need of the people to act in their own self interest.
The politicians may be better organized right now than the populace but this will be revisited until it is changed. All that will happen with a vote to stay is the proverbial can being kicked down the road.
(06-20-2016 08:20 AM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ] (06-20-2016 06:43 AM)TerryD Wrote: [ -> ]My guess is that Britain will narrowly vote to stay in the EU.
If not, expect Scotland to vote for independence in short order and for a referendum in Northern Ireland to join the Republic.
That could very well be true, but this issue won't go away. Nothing has changed in the debtor nations. The immigration issue is not going away, in fact it is still increasing. And the Euro remains a fiat currency. Sovereignty remains the issue because of the need of the people to act in their own self interest.
The politicians may be better organized right now than the populace but this will be revisited until it is changed. All that will happen with a vote to stay is the proverbial can being kicked down the road.
Oh, I am rooting for Britain to exit the EU because of the bolded above.
I am big advocates of both things happening.
The North would never join the ROI without a full blown civil war.
(06-20-2016 10:48 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote: [ -> ]The North would never join the ROI without a full blown civil war.
With an independent Scotland and a Republic of Ireland surrounding it, along with a Britain who wishes it could jettison the North, plus shifting demographics in favor of Catholic Nationalists (I was just in Northern Ireland in March) would make it difficult to not hold a plebiscite in the North.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/...-1.2190041
I don't think that Britain will jettison the EU, but we don't have long to find out.
(06-20-2016 11:23 AM)TerryD Wrote: [ -> ] (06-20-2016 10:48 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote: [ -> ]The North would never join the ROI without a full blown civil war.
With an independent Scotland and a Republic of Ireland surrounding it, along with a Britain who wishes it could jettison the North, plus shifting demographics in favor of Catholic Nationalists (I was just in Northern Ireland in March) would make it difficult to not hold a plebiscite in the North.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/...-1.2190041
I don't think that Britain will jettison the EU, but we don't have long to find out.
The Orangmen are as crazy as ever and their Catholic counterparts are matching them step for step.
BTW, I went to catholic school in Cork, CBC. I've held dual citizenship and I actually speak Gaelic. That sort of trumps a visit.
The North won't join the ROI without a fight, even if a vote took place the Orangmen will go crazy.
(06-20-2016 10:36 AM)TerryD Wrote: [ -> ] (06-20-2016 08:20 AM)JRsec Wrote: [ -> ] (06-20-2016 06:43 AM)TerryD Wrote: [ -> ]My guess is that Britain will narrowly vote to stay in the EU.
If not, expect Scotland to vote for independence in short order and for a referendum in Northern Ireland to join the Republic.
That could very well be true, but this issue won't go away. Nothing has changed in the debtor nations. The immigration issue is not going away, in fact it is still increasing. And the Euro remains a fiat currency. Sovereignty remains the issue because of the need of the people to act in their own self interest.
The politicians may be better organized right now than the populace but this will be revisited until it is changed. All that will happen with a vote to stay is the proverbial can being kicked down the road.
Oh, I am rooting for Britain to exit the EU because of the bolded above.
I am big advocates of both things happening.
Well we are in complete agreement on all three of those objectives. I would love to see a bigger push to restrain Federalism here as well.
(06-20-2016 11:32 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote: [ -> ] (06-20-2016 11:23 AM)TerryD Wrote: [ -> ] (06-20-2016 10:48 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote: [ -> ]The North would never join the ROI without a full blown civil war.
With an independent Scotland and a Republic of Ireland surrounding it, along with a Britain who wishes it could jettison the North, plus shifting demographics in favor of Catholic Nationalists (I was just in Northern Ireland in March) would make it difficult to not hold a plebiscite in the North.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/...-1.2190041
I don't think that Britain will jettison the EU, but we don't have long to find out.
The Orangmen are as crazy as ever and their Catholic counterparts are matching them step for step.
BTW, I went to catholic school in Cork, CBC. I've held dual citizenship and I actually speak Gaelic. That sort of trumps a visit.
The North won't join the ROI without a fight, even if a vote took place the Orangmen will go crazy.
Not trying to compare. I am a citizen of the Republic of Ireland too.
I agree the Orangemen are crazy. I think that events may overtake them, though.
(06-20-2016 01:00 PM)TerryD Wrote: [ -> ] (06-20-2016 11:32 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote: [ -> ] (06-20-2016 11:23 AM)TerryD Wrote: [ -> ] (06-20-2016 10:48 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote: [ -> ]The North would never join the ROI without a full blown civil war.
With an independent Scotland and a Republic of Ireland surrounding it, along with a Britain who wishes it could jettison the North, plus shifting demographics in favor of Catholic Nationalists (I was just in Northern Ireland in March) would make it difficult to not hold a plebiscite in the North.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/...-1.2190041
I don't think that Britain will jettison the EU, but we don't have long to find out.
The Orangmen are as crazy as ever and their Catholic counterparts are matching them step for step.
BTW, I went to catholic school in Cork, CBC. I've held dual citizenship and I actually speak Gaelic. That sort of trumps a visit.
The North won't join the ROI without a fight, even if a vote took place the Orangmen will go crazy.
Not trying to compare. I am a citizen of the Republic of Ireland too.
I agree the Orangemen are crazy. I think that events may overtake them, though.
I have absolutely zero confidence in those folks doing anything peaceful if that were to happen and I'm not convinced that it's worth it in the end.
A vote or not there will be a lot of violence if reunification is on the table and even afterwards there will continue to be violence.
The Gards have enough trouble dealing with semi-retarded and armed travelers, much less with a bunch of orange knackers with a several hundred year old chip on their shoulders.
That may sound like a bunch of trash talking those folks but there is a lot of truth in it. The Orangemen these days make trailer-trash look sane, clean, and peaceful.
(06-20-2016 02:46 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote: [ -> ] (06-20-2016 01:00 PM)TerryD Wrote: [ -> ] (06-20-2016 11:32 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote: [ -> ] (06-20-2016 11:23 AM)TerryD Wrote: [ -> ] (06-20-2016 10:48 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote: [ -> ]The North would never join the ROI without a full blown civil war.
With an independent Scotland and a Republic of Ireland surrounding it, along with a Britain who wishes it could jettison the North, plus shifting demographics in favor of Catholic Nationalists (I was just in Northern Ireland in March) would make it difficult to not hold a plebiscite in the North.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/...-1.2190041
I don't think that Britain will jettison the EU, but we don't have long to find out.
The Orangmen are as crazy as ever and their Catholic counterparts are matching them step for step.
BTW, I went to catholic school in Cork, CBC. I've held dual citizenship and I actually speak Gaelic. That sort of trumps a visit.
The North won't join the ROI without a fight, even if a vote took place the Orangmen will go crazy.
Not trying to compare. I am a citizen of the Republic of Ireland too.
I agree the Orangemen are crazy. I think that events may overtake them, though.
I have absolutely zero confidence in those folks doing anything peaceful if that were to happen and I'm not convinced that it's worth it in the end.
A vote or not there will be a lot of violence if reunification is on the table and even afterwards there will continue to be violence.
The Gards have enough trouble dealing with semi-retarded and armed travelers, much less with a bunch of orange knackers with a several hundred year old chip on their shoulders.
That may sound like a bunch of trash talking those folks but there is a lot of truth in it. The Orangemen these days make trailer-trash look sane, clean, and peaceful.
You get no argument from me on that score.
I don't think that Britain will exit the EU, anyway.
It will be a close vote, though.