05-19-2015, 06:47 PM
http://www.sltrib.com/sports/2526018-155...fullpage=1
Quote:There's a big difference between the number of homes that CAN subscribe to a channel and the number of homes that DO subscribe. As reported by Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury news, here are the estimates from media researchers SNL Kagan:
SECN • 63 million subscribers (available in 90 million+ homes)
BTN • 60 million subscribers (available in 90 million+ homes)
P12N • 11 million subscribers (available in 60 million+ homes)
Ouch.
The Pac-12 is running into the same problems the Mountain West did. Not just that sports fanatacism is arguably less than it is in Big Ten and SEC country; not just that its alumni base is smaller. There are simply fewer viewers in this part of the country.
Almost 80 percent of Americans live in the Eastern and Central time zones; 5.4 percent in the Mountain Time Zone; 14.1 percent is in the Pacific Time Zone.
If you get P12N and can see the Utes play, why should you care? The problem is that the SEC and Big Ten are making a whole lot more from TV. Money is power, and the Pac-12 is falling behind.
Here are the projected yearly TV takes per school beginning in 2017-18 (when the Big Ten's new deal kicks in) from SNL Kagan, via the Mercury News:
SEC: $35.6 million
Big Ten: $33 million
Pac-12: $22.95 million
In five years, that puts Utah $63 million behind Vanderbilt (and the SEC) and $50 million behind Northwestern (and the Big Ten).
Ouch.
Pac-12 schools are only getting $1 million a year from the Pac-12 Networks — a figure that, three years ago, was projected to be $5-$6 million.
I was among those who was overly optimistic about P12N. I thought it would have an easier time getting distribution. I thought it was a great idea for the league to own 100 percent of its network, whereas SECN is co-owned and operated by ESPN and BTN is co-owned and operated by Fox Sports. But ESPN and Fox have used their considerable power to get those channels in a lot more homes than P12N.
In addition, Big Ten ($8-10 million and rising) and SEC ($5 million and rising) member schools just cash big checks; Pac-12 member schools are paying to produce all that high-quality programming on seven separate feeds and getting far less in return.
It's no wonder that Pac-12 member schools are not happy. And talking about change.
Don't be surprised if the league sells a large interest — maybe 49.9 percent — to one cable giant or another.
But given the population numbers, it seems highly unlikely that P12N can ever achieve financial parity with SECN or BTN.