11-16-2014, 06:02 PM
Yesterday was another wild one in college football, with many bubble teams pulling the upset. Last week, we had 77 bowl teams projected, but with some interesting upsets, let's take a look at how that has changed by conference.
For now, we're going to assume that the CFP playoff field includes FSU, Alabama, Oregon and Miss St. We may need to adjust the bids if TCU jumps Miss St.
ACC
Last week, we projected 11 teams (including Notre Dame). This week, NC State locked up eligibility, as predicted. Virginia Tech, with their upset over Duke, will likely get to six wins. North Carolina is still the team to watch. They must play @Duke and vs NC State and need to split to get to six wins. Right now, we're projecting they do, putting us at 11 teams once again. It would be nice to see them tank it, though.
Big XII
We knew the loser of UT/Oklahoma State would have a tough time reaching six wins. The Cowboys now sit at 5-5 and must win in Waco or Norman to have a shot. We project them outside the bubble for now, leaving us with 6 projected teams. Since TCU/Baylor are both safely in the CFP Bowls for now, that leaves one bid open. This is very important for the Blazers, as the Military Bowl has the right to select a Big XII team or CUSA team if Army isn't eligible (and they aren't - thanks WKU!
)
In summary, for the Big XII, we need (a) 2 teams in the CFP bowls, and (b) Oklahoma St to lose out.
Big Ten
No change here in America's most boring P5 conference. We are projecting 10 teams for 10 slots. If Maryland beats Michigan in Ann Arbor, a bid might free up. Also, don't count out Northwestern after their big win vs Notre Dame yesterday. If they beat Purdue and Illinois, they can get to 6-6.
PAC-12
There's a beaver in the ointment! Oregon State now has life, but they must beat Washington or Oregon to make it to six wins. For now, we'll keep with our projection of 9 teams.
SEC
THIS is where we need to pay attention. The SEC has 10 bowl tie-ins, including one CFP bowl. However, the current thinking is that 4 teams will get CFP slots, which would mean that 13 teams would have to qualify to fill all slots. Let's take a look at where we stand:
Locks: 8
Need one more: Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas
So, it's possible all 13 teams could go. Florida, South Carolina, and Tennessee should be easily with one "should-be beatdown" game in front of them. So, it comes down to Kentucky (@Tennessee, @Louisville) and Arkansas (vs Ole Miss, @Missouri).
For the Independence Bowl to free up, we need four SEC teams to make the playoff, and one of Kentucky/Arkansas to lose out.
So with the P5 taken care of, what's the projection for C*USA? Well, it all depends on what happens with Marshall. Good news, if we are the ones to unseat Marshall and finish 7-5, we won't have to worry about missing out on a bid (unless Watts declines it for us).
But, let's say Marshall wins out and gets the Access Bowl. That leaves 5 spots for 6 potential teams.
Here's the outlook for our league:
C*USA
4 teams with six wins
3 that need one more: MT, UAB, WKU
Each of these three teams needs one more win, and each plays a league game against a team with a losing record. I think all 3 will get that win.
So, if this happens, we'll need to find another spot to pick up. This leaves us the following options:
Military Bowl: if there isn't a Big XII team (right now, there shouldn't be):
Independence Bowl: Need 4 SEC teams in the CFP bowl + an Arkansas or Kentucky team to lose out.
Birmingham Bowl: This is still a possibility but requires 4 SEC teams in the CFP Bowls + Both Arkansas/Kentucky to lose out (which has a decent chance of happening).
So, what is our nightmare scenario?
-Less than 3 SEC teams make CFP bowls
-Baylor/TCU suffer a WTF loss, knocking them out of at-large contention
-Oklahoma St becomes bowl eligible
-Kentucky and Arkansas split their last two
-Marshall loses C*USA Championship game or otherwise doesn't win the G5 CFP slot
Luckily, we can control our own destiny in all of this. Please, get your FN arse to Legion Field on Saturday and cheer for the upset! This is the biggest game in UAB Football history!!! Our future hangs in the balance...YOU can be the difference (as Watson used to say)!
For now, we're going to assume that the CFP playoff field includes FSU, Alabama, Oregon and Miss St. We may need to adjust the bids if TCU jumps Miss St.
ACC
Last week, we projected 11 teams (including Notre Dame). This week, NC State locked up eligibility, as predicted. Virginia Tech, with their upset over Duke, will likely get to six wins. North Carolina is still the team to watch. They must play @Duke and vs NC State and need to split to get to six wins. Right now, we're projecting they do, putting us at 11 teams once again. It would be nice to see them tank it, though.
Big XII
We knew the loser of UT/Oklahoma State would have a tough time reaching six wins. The Cowboys now sit at 5-5 and must win in Waco or Norman to have a shot. We project them outside the bubble for now, leaving us with 6 projected teams. Since TCU/Baylor are both safely in the CFP Bowls for now, that leaves one bid open. This is very important for the Blazers, as the Military Bowl has the right to select a Big XII team or CUSA team if Army isn't eligible (and they aren't - thanks WKU!
)In summary, for the Big XII, we need (a) 2 teams in the CFP bowls, and (b) Oklahoma St to lose out.
Big Ten
No change here in America's most boring P5 conference. We are projecting 10 teams for 10 slots. If Maryland beats Michigan in Ann Arbor, a bid might free up. Also, don't count out Northwestern after their big win vs Notre Dame yesterday. If they beat Purdue and Illinois, they can get to 6-6.
PAC-12
There's a beaver in the ointment! Oregon State now has life, but they must beat Washington or Oregon to make it to six wins. For now, we'll keep with our projection of 9 teams.
SEC
THIS is where we need to pay attention. The SEC has 10 bowl tie-ins, including one CFP bowl. However, the current thinking is that 4 teams will get CFP slots, which would mean that 13 teams would have to qualify to fill all slots. Let's take a look at where we stand:
Locks: 8
Need one more: Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas
So, it's possible all 13 teams could go. Florida, South Carolina, and Tennessee should be easily with one "should-be beatdown" game in front of them. So, it comes down to Kentucky (@Tennessee, @Louisville) and Arkansas (vs Ole Miss, @Missouri).
For the Independence Bowl to free up, we need four SEC teams to make the playoff, and one of Kentucky/Arkansas to lose out.
So with the P5 taken care of, what's the projection for C*USA? Well, it all depends on what happens with Marshall. Good news, if we are the ones to unseat Marshall and finish 7-5, we won't have to worry about missing out on a bid (unless Watts declines it for us).
But, let's say Marshall wins out and gets the Access Bowl. That leaves 5 spots for 6 potential teams.
Here's the outlook for our league:
C*USA
4 teams with six wins
3 that need one more: MT, UAB, WKU
Each of these three teams needs one more win, and each plays a league game against a team with a losing record. I think all 3 will get that win.
So, if this happens, we'll need to find another spot to pick up. This leaves us the following options:
Military Bowl: if there isn't a Big XII team (right now, there shouldn't be):
Independence Bowl: Need 4 SEC teams in the CFP bowl + an Arkansas or Kentucky team to lose out.
Birmingham Bowl: This is still a possibility but requires 4 SEC teams in the CFP Bowls + Both Arkansas/Kentucky to lose out (which has a decent chance of happening).
So, what is our nightmare scenario?
-Less than 3 SEC teams make CFP bowls
-Baylor/TCU suffer a WTF loss, knocking them out of at-large contention
-Oklahoma St becomes bowl eligible
-Kentucky and Arkansas split their last two
-Marshall loses C*USA Championship game or otherwise doesn't win the G5 CFP slot
Luckily, we can control our own destiny in all of this. Please, get your FN arse to Legion Field on Saturday and cheer for the upset! This is the biggest game in UAB Football history!!! Our future hangs in the balance...YOU can be the difference (as Watson used to say)!