8/10 seasons beating a BCS opponent. This is our shot. Obviously MIZZOU isn't as good as Florida and we won't be nearly as big dogs. Mizzou does have the luxury of studying our 3-4 defense that Florida did not know was coming. I see us winning the special teams battle once again. We are good enough to hang around with these teams no question. A win?? I hope so.
Based on what I saw from our offensive game plan and execution, we won't keep it close at Missouri. This coaching staff is still a question mark in my eyes...
(09-01-2013 08:55 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote: [ -> ]8/10 seasons beating a BCS opponent. This is our shot. Obviously MIZZOU isn't as good as Florida and we won't be nearly as big dogs. Mizzou does have the luxury of studying our 3-4 defense that Florida did not know was coming. I see us winning the special teams battle once again. We are good enough to hang around with these teams no question. A win?? I hope so.
I definitely think we are good enough to hang with Mizzou. If our offense can get it going, we should have a shot to stay in the game and perhaps a chance to win.
Here is my analogy of recruiting between FLA, Mizzou and Toledo:
40 kids on a playground of varying ability. Two coaches get to pick the teams.
Top tier teams Florida, Alabama etc. - they get to pick first 10 players, we get the next ten, they get the next ten, and we get the final ten. After the teams are picked, they have the 10 best players and 20 of the top 30 players with the most potential. We have a few players with decent potential, maybe one or two diamonds in the rough, but we also have to field the 10 worst players of the lot and make it work.
Upper middle tier - Ohio St, Michigan, Wisc, Nebraska, Texas etc. - they get the first 8 players, we get the next 8 and so forth. They get 16 of the top 24 players and we only get 8 of the top 24.
Mid tier BCS teams - Mizzou, Washington, Cincy etc. - they get the first 5 players, we get the next 5, and so forth. They still get 10 of the top 15 players, but we have a enough decent players that we can give them fits on a good year.
Low tier BCS teams - Purdue, Kansas, Minn etc. - they get the first 4 players, we get the next 4, and so forth. They get 8 of the top 12, but we still get 8 of the top 16. These teams are like good MAC teams and are beatable almost every year.
***Finally, consider the cumulative effect over the recruiting years.
The moral of the story: it isn't a fair playing field. If you want to have success against the big boys, you have to defy and overcome the odds with better recruiting, elite coaching, and uber discipline/conditioning. We are one of the 10 or 20 Mid-majors that have gotten ourselves into a position to be able to do battle with the low and middle tier, but we are not anywhere near ready for the top tier.
Toledo recruits pretty well for the size of athletic budget, traditions, etc... Toledo beat Cincy last year, and Purdue got drilled yesterday. Both wins were at home FWIW.
A couple over-throws or dropped passes in any game can be pivotal to the outcome. This game against Florida was in reach, but Toledo didn't strike when the iron was hot. If Toledo could have capitalized in the 2nd half, 17 - 3 becomes 17 - 10 which is not insurmountable.
I am glad there is an abundance of talent for Toledo to put together a competitive team. The luxury Toledo has is teams like Florida, Alabama, etc... are 4 deep with the best high school players in the country. That makes a team like Toledo attractive to recruits considering playing time and fan base. Toledo is in good position, and you can get season tickets at a reasonable price. A win against Florida on the road would have been nice. Toledo did not execute well enough for that.
(09-01-2013 08:55 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote: [ -> ]8/10 seasons beating a BCS opponent. This is our shot. Obviously MIZZOU isn't as good as Florida and we won't be nearly as big dogs. Mizzou does have the luxury of studying our 3-4 defense that Florida did not know was coming. I see us winning the special teams battle once again. We are good enough to hang around with these teams no question. A win?? I hope so.
I'm going to reserve my judgement on the defense until after the Missouri game. They have a much more potent offense than Florida. On the flip side, hopefully we can score more than just 6 points against an inferior defense.
(09-01-2013 01:02 PM)PTLROCK Wrote: [ -> ]Toledo recruits pretty well for the size of athletic budget, traditions, etc... Toledo beat Cincy last year, and Purdue got drilled yesterday. Both wins were at home FWIW.
A couple over-throws or dropped passes in any game can be pivotal to the outcome. This game against Florida was in reach, but Toledo didn't strike when the iron was hot. If Toledo could have capitalized in the 2nd half, 17 - 3 becomes 17 - 10 which is not insurmountable.
I am glad there is an abundance of talent for Toledo to put together a competitive team. The luxury Toledo has is teams like Florida, Alabama, etc... are 4 deep with the best high school players in the country. That makes a team like Toledo attractive to recruits considering playing time and fan base. Toledo is in good position, and you can get season tickets at a reasonable price. A win against Florida on the road would have been nice. Toledo did not execute well enough for that.
Wonderful analysis. Hopefully Florida can stay in the top 25 and end with >8 wins. If so, that loss was nothing to shrug about.
Toledo can still make noise by winning 4/5, and will be in good shape winning 3/5 to start this season. Ideal situation has us 8-2 or 9-1 going into NIU for the MAC West. This UT team lost it's shot to be ranked early this season, but how often do MAC teams get ranked early in the season??? NIU and OU are the only teams with that possibility so far.
NIU lost their opener vs. a pretty bad Iowa team last year and look where they ended. Our SOS with a loss being to Florida aint too bad.
Keep rooting for the MAC, and keep rooting for Toledo. I don't think we're backing down from a MAC title this year. 4/5 on the road is brutal, no other teams in the MAC will be ready come week 11 like Toledo.
We lost yesterday
1. Game Plan - Offense
2. Execution - - Offense
I think due to coaching inexperience... the coaches just got a HUGE dose of humble pie and a welcome to the real world.. hopefully, they learn and fix it... i saw huge opportunities on the field... the plays were looking good in many ways...
I took nothing but positive out of yesterday's game...
yeah, room for improvement is within reach. it depends on how quick the offensive staff and players and learn from this humbling experience. florida had a very efficient offense that kinda played into our bend don't break style. the rockets have been hurt by running/throwing qbs in recent yrs and Missouri and niu have those.
going into the season the best real case scenario was to come out of florida competitive and healthy. steal an away win at Missouri. use the home opener energy to avoid the upset vs e Washington. and get at least one of the two opening road games. then, we get an off weak and move into the home schedule to pick up momentum for bg, western, niu. to go even 9-3 vs this schedule will be an accomplishment. 12-0 was a dream.
(09-02-2013 07:37 AM)pono Wrote: [ -> ]florida had a very efficient offense that kinda played into our bend don't break style. the rockets have been hurt by running/throwing qbs in recent yrs and Missouri and niu have those.
going into the season the best real case scenario was to come out of florida competitive and healthy. steal an away win at Missouri. use the home opener energy to avoid the upset vs e Washington. and get at least one of the two opening road games. then, we get an off weak and move into the home schedule to pick up momentum for bg, western, niu. to go even 9-3 vs this schedule will be an accomplishment. 12-0 was a dream.
Driskel ran a lot too. He was their leading rusher last season. We contained him better than most thought we would. The spread was 23, and the SEC fans/most people in the country thought it'd be more like a 45-21 or worse kind of game.... 24-6 isn't good enough, but our offense was the (?), that is the only thing to be discussed IMO.
How bad did Lynch really hurt us? That third quarter was bad, but last time I checked the offense turned the ball over 4 times, and we still lost by a TD. The defense can't win games where the offense misses opportunities created my that very same defense. I don't think anyone would disagree there. Is the defense playing good enough to get wins?? Last season, and in that UF game, I would argue they did. You can be angered at the EMU game sure. That win was still a win any way you mark it up.
Eventually I want a defense that can win, when the offense is playing poorly. But not many games we are in will feature a Toledo win 7-3, or 10-7. It's not in the culture, and isn't expected of this team. Our high powered spread/ hurry up offense needs to score off our gamble defense's turnovers and ability to stop teams in the redzone. Who cares how many yards we give up...
I think it's really hard to evaluate our team based on the Florida game. On the one hand, we did keep the score reasonable, and our defense was able to hang tough. On the other hand, Florida was dealing with significant injuries and suspensions, and the Gators kept things pretty close to the vest. As far as some suggesting that we could have won the game if a few things had gone differently, that's not the game I saw. The good news is that we didn't embarrass ourselves, which is a real possibility playing at Florida, and we came away injury-free.
I agree, Dwight. While our offense struggled more than I thought they might, they were going up against a VERY talented defense. As for our own "D", I was pleasantly surprised to see them compete well in the 2nd & 3rd quarters, and even found myself disbelieving that we needed our D to keep us in the game, but that's how I saw it. Your points about Florida's offense not being fully-loaded are correct, though, so...heading into Missouri, we have 2 key questions to answer:
1) Will our offense bounce back, move the ball effectively on more drives than not, and put points on the board, preferably TDs when we're in the red zone, or do they put so much pressure on themselves to do so that we repeat the Florida effort?
2) Can the defense continue to show improvement while facing a Missouri offense that has a bit more established passing game than Florida, and one that has had a game to work out any "kinks"?
The loss to the Gators didn't bum me out--the impotent offense, however, did...a loss at Missouri would also not be the end of the world, and has nothing to do with winning the MAC, but this is still a big game nonetheless. Win, and we have some momentum. Lose, and it depends on how we lose--close game vs. blow out, ineffective offense vs. productive one, tough D vs. the type that showed up much of last season, etc... A loss would really make that home opener against a pretty good Eastern Washington team a bit of a concern--at least for a worry-wart like me.
Happy Labor Day--to all of us fortunate enough to have good jobs, enjoy the time off--for those of you who have "paid your dues" and are now retired, enjoy as well, and for those among us seeking employment or a better life, best wishes and keep the faith.
(09-02-2013 08:46 AM)Dwight Wrote: [ -> ]I think it's really hard to evaluate our team based on the Florida game. On the one hand, we did keep the score reasonable, and our defense was able to hang tough. On the other hand, Florida was dealing with significant injuries and suspensions, and the Gators kept things pretty close to the vest. As far as some suggesting that we could have won the game if a few things had gone differently, that's not the game I saw. The good news is that we didn't embarrass ourselves, which is a real possibility playing at Florida, and we came away injury-free.
The game was ugly.
But I'm glad the score wasn't.
For people who didn't watch, they wouldn't necessarily know how thoroughly we got dominated.
Clearly, from the box score, UF is no Utah St.
Good luck against Missouri. They had a tough time of it last year, but also had a lot of injuries throughout the course of the season.
One thing in our game that happened that I did not expect was for your defense to force three straight punts on our first three possessions of the 2nd half. That was a little disturbing at the time.
So, your young D stood up, and they will no doubt improve this week. UF's offense is what it is under Champ.
Missouri isn't a total slouch of offense, just nothing overpowering on the line of scrimmage, imho.
(09-01-2013 08:55 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote: [ -> ]8/10 seasons beating a BCS opponent. This is our shot. Obviously MIZZOU isn't as good as Florida and we won't be nearly as big dogs. Mizzou does have the luxury of studying our 3-4 defense that Florida did not know was coming. I see us winning the special teams battle once again. We are good enough to hang around with these teams no question. A win?? I hope so.
This game is on the road and even beating ok teams is hard. Unfortunately I think we lose this one.
(09-02-2013 12:06 PM)RowdyReptile Wrote: [ -> ]Good luck against Missouri. They had a tough time of it last year, but also had a lot of injuries throughout the course of the season.
One thing in our game that happened that I did not expect was for your defense to force three straight punts on our first three possessions of the 2nd half. That was a little disturbing at the time.
So, your young D stood up, and they will no doubt improve this week. UF's offense is what it is under Champ.
Missouri isn't a total slouch of offense, just nothing overpowering on the line of scrimmage, imho.
No SEC loyalty here. I hope you beat them.
RR
On one hand, we didn't expect it either because our 2 deep is scary young. However, this is where we want our team to be and why there are some things we are concerned about. Sure, a team like Florida is going to take some things away and break up a lot of plays, no question. But, the lack of executing, i.e., not making the plays when they were there, harkens back to last season when our offense had so much trouble getting it done in the red zone. That isn't necessarily a knock on the players because whatever they were told to do wasn't working. When we beat a ranked Cincinnati the offense did not contribute a point; it was all special teams and a pick 6. Now, granted, at Florida we only had one visit to the red zone (IIRC), however what we saw was not a great display of skill on any level. Hopefully things improve quickly because we do not get a break. After Missouri we come home and face a team that just knocked off #25 at their place, then we go on the road for 2 conference games where it has been tough to win. Then home to a conference game, then Navy the next week.
If we see some offense at Missouri I'm sure it will ease a lot of concerns.
(09-01-2013 08:55 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote: [ -> ]8/10 seasons beating a BCS opponent. This is our shot. Obviously MIZZOU isn't as good as Florida and we won't be nearly as big dogs. Mizzou does have the luxury of studying our 3-4 defense that Florida did not know was coming. I see us winning the special teams battle once again. We are good enough to hang around with these teams no question. A win?? I hope so.
This game is on the road and even beating ok teams is hard. Unfortunately I think we lose this one.
You never know, the Huskies broke through against Iowa last week, would be great to see a MAC team beat an SEC team. Get after it Rockets
