CSNbbs

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball...rence-no-6

A couple of things:
1) If teams form a mega-conference they will still be one conference and, unless they petition the NCAA to change the rules they still only get 1/5 of the nonAQ pot. So, if a mega conference raids other conferences they get larger but will have to split the approx $19M more ways.

2) Banking on a mega-conference always having the highest rated team for the nonAQ representative in one of the BCS bowls is a pipe dream. NonAQ teams that get highly-ranked are a result of dominating their conference. When you build a super conference of nonAQ football powers they will simply beat each other an no one from the conference will get the bid. Some might say, "The SEC has a similar problem and they have fared well". However, a 2 or maybe even 3 loss SEC team can still make a BCS bowl. A non-AQ team cannot.

3) Banking on Cincy and UConn to be around for any real length of time is unrealistic. No matter what form this thing might take UConn and Cincy are the next to be called up to an AQ conference. So that leaves BE with an even more CUSA-flavored stew.

4) When AQ conferences raid again the ACC may need 6-8 new members. The only place to get 'em is BE or CUSA. Does anyone really think the other AQ conferences are gonna split their AQ money with a conference that may include ECU, Memphis, USM, and/or Tulane? They are much more likely to become the "Power 4" and relegate the ACC to nonAQ status. If this is the case the raids had better start before the final BCS/AQ contracts are signed.

I think all the power conferences ( or at least a growing number of their members) will start to regret growing to the size they are becoming (anything past 12) . Look at the SEC for example. While the total dollar brought has grown for tv, and various other things have increased, with the greater number of teams you just are adding more teams that aren't winning a championship in any given sport. And while the SEC has for quite a few years had 8 or 9 teams in bowls, this year with 14 teams in the league, they only produced 8 teams that qualified for the post season. I don't think this year will be the exception. So they added teams but won't need to add bowls, and then after 4 or 5 years, the teams that are regularly not going to bowls will become less and less competitive, and less fan attendance, etc. I think you will increasing see it difficult for Miss State, Ole Miss, Vandy, Kentucky. Missouri and Tennessee may also begin to fall into that category. And the disparity within their own league will grow greater and greater, so much that the bottom half to third will become a drag on the conference for any given sport. So while the initial benefit of greater footprint and greater total dollars was attractive the long term effects of overly bloated conferences will start to take effect.

I think the Big 12 is very smart in not expanding, and at this point, not sure who they would try to get anyway.