11-19-2012, 10:20 AM
Good morning Blazers!
We here at the FN Bubble Watch® are chomping at the bit--after all, we have spent an entire 20 FN months out of commission since projecting the Blazers as a First Four team in the 2011 tournament. Now, we have a brand new system in place, some exciting new talent (Rod Rucker muthaf***a!) and a schedule that could lend itself to some nice wins.
So, with that being said, I want to take a look at some way-too-early projections to see what expectations are at the beginning of the season.
First, I'd like to announce that the FN Bubble Watch will begin on Monday, February 4. I'm going ahead and announcing a date because our number crunching leads us to believe that the Blazers will be very much in the conversation at this date.
So, what will be new for this year's
tracking?
-We keep the number of at large bids the same, at 37 for another year. The First Four format that we've seen will remain.
-Conference realignment: We're having to relearn all of our traditional conference affiliations. Most notably, we know that the SEC is gaining Texas A&M and Missouri for this season, which should increase our number of projected at large bids for the SEC and remove some from the Big XII. The Big XII picks up a traditional at-large team in West Virginia. Also, Butler and VCU are competing in the A-10 this year, which could make the Horizon and CAA 1-bid leagues this year.
-C*USA outlook: Way-too-early projections predict the final C*USA standings as of today (courtesy of rpiforecast.com):
1) Memphis 11-5
2) UCF 10-6 *postseason ban
3) Marshall 9-7
3) UTEP 9-7
5) UAB 8-8
5) Southern Miss 8-8
5) Houston 8-8
8) Tulsa 7-9
8) SMU 7-9
8) Rice 7-9
8) Tulane 7-9
12) ECU 6-10
Now, I don't expect this to play out exactly as above, but I thought it might be helpful to show where the initial projections are at this point.
So, what do the early projections think about UAB's season and opponents?
*Right now, rpiforecast.com projects UAB to finish 15-14 (Young Harris game doesn't count, and the TBA game in South Padre isn't factored in yet). Of this, we are projected to finish 8-8 in league play, as shown above. I actually think we can and will finish better than this.
*Right now, we are projected to have 7 Top 50 games. This is about on par with what we normally see. Of course, these are way-too-early projections and for entertainment purposes only. The Top 50 projected opponents are:
Creighton
Illinois St <<<would be a big win for us in South Padre
North Carolina
Memphis (x2)
UCF (x2)
Projected 51-100 teams are:
MTSU
Dayton
Southern Miss (x2)
UTEP
Marshall (x2)
If this held, we would have 14 Top 100 games, one short of 2012 and 2011.
*The best thing about our schedule so far is that we don't have very many projected sub-200 opponents, which is a little different than years past. Right now, we only have 5 of these on the schedule, compared to 8 in 2011 and 2012. This can really help the RPI, but at the same token, we don't need a super-WTF loss to any of the following:
Navy (the only projected 300+ team-check!)
Prairie View A&M
Troy
ULM
Georgia Southern
*Final way-too-early RPI projections based on record:
22-7: 15
21-8: 19
20-9: 26
19-10: 34
18-11: 44
17-12: 56
16-13: 70
15-14: 84 <<<--current rpiforecast.com projection
After watching the team in only 2 D-1 games, the FN Bubble Watch® projects a finishing record of 19-21 wins, which places us in deep bubble conversation. In fact, if our schedule stays out of the basement as projected, this many wins could have us feeling good. Do you feel like these way-too-early projections are too high?
In any event, what we know about our OOC schedule so far is:
-Creighton is a very very good team that will make the NCAA Tournament, and we played them very well for 30 minutes:
-We have an early neutral-court test against a very good Illinois St team on Friday
-Dayton and Rutgers will be tough tests and have the potential to be Top 100 road wins, but they are very winnable
-We will be lucky to keep it within 20 in Chapel Hill
-Due to early season struggles with Marshall and UCF's postseason ineligibility, I think we have a really good shot at a Top-4 finish in the league.
-Rpiforecast.com projects the home game vs Memphis as a coin flip at the moment. How huge would it be for CJH to break the Davis mindf***?
We'll see how the schedule plays out, and what our opponents (and opponents' opponents do!) but I'm cautiously optimistic! Hope to see you at the Barlow tomorrow night!
We here at the FN Bubble Watch® are chomping at the bit--after all, we have spent an entire 20 FN months out of commission since projecting the Blazers as a First Four team in the 2011 tournament. Now, we have a brand new system in place, some exciting new talent (Rod Rucker muthaf***a!) and a schedule that could lend itself to some nice wins.
So, with that being said, I want to take a look at some way-too-early projections to see what expectations are at the beginning of the season.
First, I'd like to announce that the FN Bubble Watch will begin on Monday, February 4. I'm going ahead and announcing a date because our number crunching leads us to believe that the Blazers will be very much in the conversation at this date.
So, what will be new for this year's
tracking? -We keep the number of at large bids the same, at 37 for another year. The First Four format that we've seen will remain.
-Conference realignment: We're having to relearn all of our traditional conference affiliations. Most notably, we know that the SEC is gaining Texas A&M and Missouri for this season, which should increase our number of projected at large bids for the SEC and remove some from the Big XII. The Big XII picks up a traditional at-large team in West Virginia. Also, Butler and VCU are competing in the A-10 this year, which could make the Horizon and CAA 1-bid leagues this year.
-C*USA outlook: Way-too-early projections predict the final C*USA standings as of today (courtesy of rpiforecast.com):
1) Memphis 11-5
2) UCF 10-6 *postseason ban
3) Marshall 9-7
3) UTEP 9-7
5) UAB 8-8
5) Southern Miss 8-8
5) Houston 8-8
8) Tulsa 7-9
8) SMU 7-9
8) Rice 7-9
8) Tulane 7-9
12) ECU 6-10
Now, I don't expect this to play out exactly as above, but I thought it might be helpful to show where the initial projections are at this point.
So, what do the early projections think about UAB's season and opponents?
*Right now, rpiforecast.com projects UAB to finish 15-14 (Young Harris game doesn't count, and the TBA game in South Padre isn't factored in yet). Of this, we are projected to finish 8-8 in league play, as shown above. I actually think we can and will finish better than this.
*Right now, we are projected to have 7 Top 50 games. This is about on par with what we normally see. Of course, these are way-too-early projections and for entertainment purposes only. The Top 50 projected opponents are:
Creighton
Illinois St <<<would be a big win for us in South Padre
North Carolina
Memphis (x2)
UCF (x2)
Projected 51-100 teams are:
MTSU
Dayton
Southern Miss (x2)
UTEP
Marshall (x2)
If this held, we would have 14 Top 100 games, one short of 2012 and 2011.
*The best thing about our schedule so far is that we don't have very many projected sub-200 opponents, which is a little different than years past. Right now, we only have 5 of these on the schedule, compared to 8 in 2011 and 2012. This can really help the RPI, but at the same token, we don't need a super-WTF loss to any of the following:
Navy (the only projected 300+ team-check!)
Prairie View A&M
Troy
ULM
Georgia Southern
*Final way-too-early RPI projections based on record:
22-7: 15
21-8: 19
20-9: 26
19-10: 34
18-11: 44
17-12: 56
16-13: 70
15-14: 84 <<<--current rpiforecast.com projection
After watching the team in only 2 D-1 games, the FN Bubble Watch® projects a finishing record of 19-21 wins, which places us in deep bubble conversation. In fact, if our schedule stays out of the basement as projected, this many wins could have us feeling good. Do you feel like these way-too-early projections are too high?
In any event, what we know about our OOC schedule so far is:
-Creighton is a very very good team that will make the NCAA Tournament, and we played them very well for 30 minutes:
-We have an early neutral-court test against a very good Illinois St team on Friday
-Dayton and Rutgers will be tough tests and have the potential to be Top 100 road wins, but they are very winnable
-We will be lucky to keep it within 20 in Chapel Hill
-Due to early season struggles with Marshall and UCF's postseason ineligibility, I think we have a really good shot at a Top-4 finish in the league.
-Rpiforecast.com projects the home game vs Memphis as a coin flip at the moment. How huge would it be for CJH to break the Davis mindf***?
We'll see how the schedule plays out, and what our opponents (and opponents' opponents do!) but I'm cautiously optimistic! Hope to see you at the Barlow tomorrow night!